You are viewing the chat in desktop mode. Click here to switch to mobile view.
X
Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 9/26/23
powered byJotCast
Prev Page View Full Chat Next Page
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:02
I think there are some who think that way but they're decreasing in number over time. I think what a lot of people mean when they say they're not sure if someone's a first-ballot guy is that "I'm going to need some convincing," which isn't entirely unfair.
Greg
3:02
Vida Blue is the best example that I could think of off the top of my head. Looks like a reasonable answer.
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:04
I assume this is pertaining to the Snell question, but Blue had three big (5+ WAR) seasons after his epic 9-WAR 1971 — they came five, seven, and nine years later. Had some trouble recovering from 1971 due to workload and the fallout from his holdout.
Coolio
3:04
Do you see Beli getting a 12 year deal or something like other star talents in recent offseasons? Does he have leverage to demand more due to the very lackluster class of FAs this year?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:06
No. His career has been far too volatile to merit that long a deal, and he's well ahead of his Statcast x-numbers to boot. I think he'll be fine, with something in the 4-5 year range.
Guest
3:06
If Jacob deGrom is not able to add meaningfully to his HoF case he very likely does not make it (a la Johan Santana). However, someone like Billy Wagner sits on the cusp of getting the call. It feels like this distinction completely revolves around treating relievers as a separate position, and I have a tough time reconciling that. What do you think? Accept and move on?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:09
yes. I understand why it chafes some people that a guy with a workload half to one-third the size of a pretty good starter gets in while the starter doesn't, but the whole game has been rebuilt around elite relievers to some extent, and voters have chosen to recognize it. I can't get too worked up against it, and if/when Wagner gets in, I'll be quite happy for him.
Farhandrew Zaidman
3:10
Kevin Acee from the SD Union Tribune wrote that the Pads are "out of compliance with MLB regulations regarding their debt service ratio." First time I've heard of this rule. Do you know any more?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:11
IIRC it got talked about more during the Selig era. Since we're not privy to the books of any teams (except the Braves, whose finances are public) it seems to be selectively enforced, a means for the commissioner to warn a team to curb its spending. Came up a bit w/r/t McCourt I think.
Guest
3:13
I dont know if you are the right guy to ask but is it possible to get a peek into the Stuff+ breakdowns that you did for Hunter Brown. Looking at his innings, he is 24.2 over last years numbers (including playoffs) which tracks well with the tanking of his stuff metrics. Is this a common occurrence among pitchers building up to a seasons full workload over the past few years?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:13
You can see the year-by-year comparisons for a page like this https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?lg=all&qual=0&ind=1&typ.... I think you have to be a member to make a custom player table but am not entirely sure
Elbow Macaroni
3:14
The Cardinals have the exact same problem they had last offseason, which they didn't address, and seem poised to not address it again.  They need to pay Nola and Snell and a flyer or two like Thor just to have a CHANCE next year.  Right?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:17
The Cardinals have long favored contact-centric types who ideally would thrive in front of a strong defense over pure stuff guys who miss bats. They probably need to be big players in free agency but their historical aversion to the deep end of the pool won't help. I'm not sure Nola and Snell are particularly great horses to bet on either, really don't like the trend arrows on the former.
Marcus
3:17
If Trout were a free agent would he get more or less than the 7/248M he's owed on that contract?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:17
Less, due to the durability issues.
Insert Witty Name Here
3:17
Saw a game on TV recently that removed the strike zone box on the TV and it was so much more enjoyable. Do you agreed and/or do you think MLB should start providing more customizable options for watching games?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:18
It would be nice if the viewer could toggle the zone box on or off. Could do it with streaming, at least theoretically, but I think you'd need a separate channel to do it over the air
WinTwins0410
3:20
Jay, regarding the Hall of Fame, how do you think about something that Bill James wrote the other day (https://docs.google.com/document/d/1UKSmD_RglQYAW3c6Z6-xyB5VNWzrw5eCkD...), in which Bill asserted that the real problem with the Hall is not that it has no higher level, but that it has no lower level?  James wrote that "the fact that THERE IS NO SUCH HONOR" (for Hall of Very Good-type players) "forces people to argue that Johnny Damon is a Hall of Famer or Thurman Munson is a Hall of Famer or Omar Vizquel is a Hall of Famer, because that's all there is."  Bill also made an alternative (and complicated) proposal at that link about the idea of a 10-level Hall of Fame.  Curious what you think about that notion as well.  (I won't ask you what you think of Bill calling Dave Stieb "half-qualified," because I already know and agree with your view on Stieb's Hall-worthiness.)
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:23
I did see Bill mention this on Twitter awhile back but haven't read the whole thing. At first glance it's an interesting idea but I'm sure it's something the Hall would never go for, as it is very protective of its membership and would reject the notion that anyone is a lower-tier HOFer (ask the guy whose book about the Hall of Fame was never sold at the Hall of Fame).
Harry Feet
3:24
I would feel very good sending each of the Brewers starters out there in a playoff game.  How much does that really matter for postseason v. regular?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:25
I'm not sure *your* feelings about each Brewers starter matter  ;-) but the Brewers do have a very good front four for their rotation. Unfortunately for them, so do a lot of other teams, and even the ones that don't have much deeper offenses.
Baby Billy’s Bible Bonkers
3:27
How will mlb historians view Kyle Schwarber’s 2023 season 50 years from now?  A one-off or the new norm?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:28
Seasons like Schwarber's are still pretty anomalous. Even if we raise the batting average bar to .220 there have been only half a dozen seasons with such a low average and 40+ homers, all in the past 12 seasons:
Scott
3:29
Why Moreno announce he was selling the Angels, then change his mind? Or did I dream that happened?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:29
I think he thought there was an Ohtani windfall to be reaped.
Bryzzo
3:30
Would Ohtani have a shot at the HOF as either just the pitcher or just the hitter? Which do you think is the better possibility?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:30
Hitter more likely just due to the attrition rate of pitchers, but he'd need to take up a position if he were only a one-way player.
matt w
3:31
Chris Sale looked like he was on the HoF path until he got hurt. Do you think there's anything he can do to revive his chances? Will we see more starting pitchers get off to amazing starts until their arm breaks, and do you think this will affect future Hall voters' thinking?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:35
pitch more innings and pitch better while doing so, but obv that's easier said than done. The fact is that he's now gone 4 straight seasons with less than 100 innings and that's the death knell for a candidacy.

I'd hope over time that voters become more appreciative of the Johan Santana/David Cone/Dave Stieb types because pitching attrition rates are so high and volume so hard to attain, but it's going to be awhile yet before they get another test case to see if there's been a philosophical shift. Santana's wasn't really a fair fight due to how crowded the ballot was.
Dave
3:36
If you had the power, what team that isn't making the playoffs this season would you want to add and why?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:37
Mariners. I have family members on both sides in the Seattle area — my uncle Harold was an usher at the Diamond Club there in his retirement years — and I just cringe a bit when they get so close but fall short.
David
3:38
If you had an nl mvp vote who would you vote for?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:39
Even after all of that, I'm still torn, which was the point of the article. Might be 50.0001% to 49.9999% for Acuña but it's close
Guest
3:39
How do waiver pickups work for players on multiyear contracts?  I'm thinking of Aaron Hicks - he still has two more years left on his Yankee contract.  Do the Orioles automatically get to keep him for the next two years only paying the minimum salary? (which I think comes out of what the Yankees pay)  Or is he a free agent this offseason and can sign with any team who will pay the him the minimum again?  And a team can theoretically sign him to a contract more than his Yankees deal, which would let the Yankees off the hook (I know no one would be that foolish.)
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:41
Hicks will be a free agent at the end of the season and can sign where he chooses. The Yankees still owe him another $21 million through 2025 minus the minimum salary.
Farhandrew Zaidman
3:41
Re: J-Hey's QO. Joc in 2022: .274/.353/.521 in 433 PA with no defense.
J-Hey in 2023: .268/.343/.482 in 356 PA with plus defense.
Is it THAT crazy?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:42
Joc was 3 years younger when he got his QO.
Retired WFT Fan
3:44
Hi Jay, just wanted to say thanks to you and all the FG staff for another [regular] season of chats!

1. what do you do with the unanswered questions?
2. what ratio of questions do you usually find yourself answering?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:45
Some unanswered questions turn into article topics. I probalby only get to about 25% of the questions people ask, and maybe only half of the ones I'd like to answer, but sometimes more thought is required than the 1-2 minutes I can devote to a reply.
Connecting…