JotCast | Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat

Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 9/27/18

Prev Page View Full Chat

Jay Jaffe

12:55

Narrative, mostly. Maybe some citations regarding Pythagorean records or preseason projections from some quarters, maybe even a deeper dive into statistical aspects such as bullpen usage and platoon percentage, but it remains the most subjective of the major end-of-season awards.

Brian CashGod

12:55

Assuming Harper leaves for somewhere else this offseason, and Ryan Zimmerman plays his whole career in DC, who wears the "Greatest National" crown? Is someone like Scherzer also in the running?

Jay Jaffe

12:56

I would have to think Scherzer is the leading candidate for that title given his run of dominance.

All Cats Are Beautiful

12:58

Which under 30 player has the best chance of HOF induction? (Non-Trout division)

Jay Jaffe

12:59

Giancarlo Stanton, with 302 homers and 38.4 WAR as he nears the end of his age-28 season, seems to me the strongest one.

OneFan

1:00

What do you see the Phillies doing with all their money this offseason?

Jay Jaffe

1:01

I think they'll make a strong run at major free agents — Machado, Harper, Kershaw if he's an option, maybe even Donaldson.

Canha Corn

1:01

Dan Vogelbach is worth more in WAR than Ryon Healy (0.3 in about 70 AB to -0.3 in 500). Can you tell me why Ryon Healy is still starting today?

Jay Jaffe

1:04

No, but I can tell you that making a definitive judge of value based upon 70 PA from a player is a fool's errand, and that the difference between 0.3 WAR and -0.3 WAR over even 500 PA is negligible and subject to the assumptions that go into those measurements. Beyond that, I haven't looked to see who's pitching for either team, or if there's an injury situation, but all of that could be in play.

Most of the time, getting wound up about the lineup for a single game is pretty silly.

Dodge the NLW

1:04

Odds that the Dodgers do indeed take the NL West?

Jay Jaffe

1:05

50/50, I think. Our odds have them at 53.8%

Tom

1:05

Is there a more interesting team from a HOF perspective than the St. Louis Cardinals? Inner circle HOFers like Musial, Gibson, Hornsby, Ozzie (and Pujols soon). HOFers whose cases are questionable like Sutter, Brock, and Red. Players that should be in but aren't like Simmons, Rolen, Edmonds. Players that may one day be in but will create compelling discussions like Molina.

Jay Jaffe

1:08

You asked the same question last week. I don't really know how to answer it. I think many of the "original" 16 franchises (the ones in place from 1901-1960) have similarly compelling cross-sections of HOFers and near-HOFers. But yes, there are some very interesting guys you list, and I've enjoyed writing about them all. Simmons and Rolen are on my short list of guys I'd put in immediately if I could, and I'd also include Ken Boyer, who's pretty high on the 3B list.

stever20

1:08

what player helped his case the most for the HOF this year? Which player hurt his case the most?

Jay Jaffe

1:10

I'm doing something on Greinke that will have an answer for most improved on the pitching side, but offhand I think it's Verlander. On the hitting side, I think it's Mauer (Rule of 2,000).

On the other side of the coin, I have little doubt that Felix Hernandez's case suffered the most this year among pitchers, and wish that Chase Utley could have enjoyed a late-period Davey Lopes-like season to leave a more positive impression, performance-wise.

Scott

1:10

Who will have the next Jack Morris/Omar Vizquel support for the Hall? Largely based on gut instinct rather than peak performance or stats

Jay Jaffe

1:10

Yadier Molina.

Christian

1:10

Is Craig Counsell a lock for MOY?

Jay Jaffe

1:12

I think Brian Snitker will get some consideration, too, and you know some writers just love Joe Maddon, but I'd call Counsell the favorite and offhand, I think he'd get my vote. His outside-the box handling of that bullpen separates him, I think.

Canha Corn

1:12

Say the Nationals do sign Harper. Who is the odd man out in the OF? Michael Taylor seems an obvious answer, but his value is so low right now, would you trade Robles for Realmuto +, or pitching?

Jay Jaffe

1:14

I think Eaton, with his below-market contract and strong work as a table-setter, is the top candidate to be dealt given that he'd bring something worthwhile back in return. His injury history does ding his value somewhat though.

Billy Beane

1:14

Do you have any award votes this year? (forgive me if you've mentioned this elsewhere)

Jay Jaffe

1:15

No. In the industry's largest media market, I don't have nearly the kind of presence at games that would lead a chapter head to give me a ballot, and I have no beef with that. Just a little over 2 years until I get my Hall of Fame ballot.

Sarah

1:16

if someone wanted to start blogging about baseball, would you have a recommended platform to set up the blog on?

Jay Jaffe

1:17

I've had good results using WordPress at several junctures: Futility Infielder, Pinstriped Bible, The Cooperstown Casebook, even my first couple of years at SI.com. Not sure what the field of alternatives is like anymore. Best of luck!

Xam

1:18

Austin Barnes in 2019: are you buying any shares? I feel like he's been hiding an injury this year.

Jay Jaffe

1:21

No. It's been a pretty disappointing season from him, TBH. I know the Dodgers system has some good catching prospects in Keibert Ruiz and Will Smith, both of whom spent time in Double A. It will be interesting to see if they just let Grandal walk as a free agent and try to muddle through with Barnes and one of them or go out and get a placeholder. I don't see a lot of great options out there.

Hoping to do a thing on Grandal sometime in the next couple of weeks, btw.

Canha Corn

1:22

Are you a fan of a particular franchise, and if so, is that a geographical affinity, a family-based affinity, or one you made up for yourself because you can't stand the pain of a losing franchise?

Jay Jaffe

1:25

I grew up a Dodgers fan, which was handed down from my Brooklyn-born grandfather and my father; they were out west a decade before the Dodgers left town so it wasn't like they had a grievance over the move. Soon after I moved to New York City in 1995, I started going to Yankees games with a group of friends; that evolved into a partial season ticket package that has survived since 1998.

Given the volume of writing I've produced on both over the past 18 seasons I don't think it's a secret that I still have affection for both teams — they're the ones I default to watching, for one thing — but my relationship to fandom is very different now, and I always have to put the objectivity of the job first. Writing about the Dodgers losing Game 7 of the World Series, for one thing.

keith Wengronowitz

1:27

Is there a link on fan graphs with the top 2018 statistic called "Pitching Game Scores"? Jacob deGrom had an 88 last night and I would like to see where that ranks for all starters for the entire season.

Jay Jaffe

1:29

At FanGraphs we use Tom Tango's Game Score 2.0, which differs from the Bill James one in its use of home runs and maybe a few other areas. It's available on each pitcher's game log but I'm not sure if there's a way to search for it or do rankings of averages. I'll ask and input the answer here sometime after my chat — check back.

stever20

1:30

How are the odds for the Dodgers in the NL west the exact same today as they were yesterday? The Rockies did win and the Dodgers did lose.

Jay Jaffe

1:31

I'm not sure when they were last refreshed — I think they refresh after every wave of games, but you can see the deltas using this link and changing the dates: https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds?date=2018-09-27&dateD...

Canha Corn

1:31

This was a horrible year for Dee Gordon. Is he in decline phase for fast guys who survive on contact, or was it injuries, being jerked around positionally, and whatever luck?

Jay Jaffe

1:33

I've never been all that high on Gordon, but man, that's a rough season. The transition to a new team and new position may have something to do with it but a profile that's highly dependent upon BABIP isn't worth much when that BABIP is only .304.

Frank Lyman from Amherst

1:34

Were you making the case for Grandal over Ramos last week?? You dinged Ramos for durability. Even that's flimsy. He came back from the knee surgery (ACL if I'm not mistaken) in almost record time. Aside from that, he's been very durable (for a C) the past 4 seasons. And Ramos is clearly the better hitter the past 3 seasons.

Jay Jaffe

1:36

I will continue to make the case for Grandal over Ramos when I write about the former. I like Ramos a fair bit but he's had two write-off seasons out of the past five with < 1.0 WAR, and the BP defensive numbers, which are the gold standard as far as catchers are concerned, paint a much rosier picture of Grandal's work. Until then...

1:37

OK folks, there are a lot of good questions in the queue but as i said, it's a tight day for me, and my laptop (the desktop is again out of commision) is slowing to a crawl. Enjoy the rest of the regular season, follow #TeamEntropy, and be good to one another.

Connecting…

Your current subscriptions

None

E-mail Address	Chat Owner	Status	Remove

Enter your email address to be notified when Jay Jaffe hosts a chat