JotCast | Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat -9/9/19

Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat -9/9/19

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Matt W

12:48

He probably started his career too old for it to really happen, but deGrom would be a fascinating HOF case if his career continues to play out the way it has in the last few years. Elite statistics and personal accolades with paltry win totals.

Jay Jaffe

12:50

Yeah, my hunch is that the late start will make it hard, but I said the same thing about Max Scherzer, who has shown himself to be very durable and has pitched his way into a likely HOFer. Granted, Scherzer was in the majors at 23 vs. 26 for JdG, but health is everything.

Nick

12:51

Biggest end-of-season / playoff impact: the loss of J. Baez, the loss of J. Ramirez, or the loss of M. Pineda?

Jay Jaffe

12:53

all big, and tough to answer. The Twins are in almost certainly, but it's less certain about the other two, so those could loom large if they come up short. Assuming they all make the playoffs, I'd say Pineda because of the outsized impact that a starter can have in October, and the fall-off from him to Perez or one (or some) of the rookies.

owsley stanley

12:53

Calloway has got to be fired- right?

Jay Jaffe

12:55

I do think he winds up losing his job. I'd have done it over the Tim Healey clubhouse blowup, which was thoroughly unprofessional on the part of both Callaway and Vargas. The in-game managing stuff has been awful at times, too.

Dale

12:55

What's more impressive; a team with two pitchers with 300 K's, or a team with three 40-homer guys?

Jay Jaffe

12:56

In recent history there have been far fewer guys with 300 strikeouts than with 40 homers, and even in the high-K, high-HR environment, workload considerations are such that the former is more rare.

Don't let Kent Hrbek sit on you

12:56

Going forward, does it get tougher or easier for relievers to make the HOF?

Jay Jaffe

12:57

probably tougher now that every one of them will be implicitly measured relative to Mariano Rivera. I'm pro-Billy Wagner, and can see a case for Joe Nathan based on win-expectancy stuff (go dig the Wagner piece up) but Papelbon and K-Rod are nos, and the recent directions of Kimbrel and Jansen suggest they won't have the staying power to get there either.

stever20

12:59

what do you think of the job Dave Martinez has done with the Nats? I had my doubts earlier this year but he's really impressed me.

Jay Jaffe

1:00

I'm not terribly impressed. IMO, based on the talent on their rosters, the Nationals should have won back-to-back division titles over the past two seasons and at best they'll have one Wild Card appearance to show for it. Some of that is on injuries and roster construction (esp the bullpens) but that can't be all of it.

BarryBondsJuicedForOurSins

1:00

So you think that the Twins hang on to the central? Their injuries are piling up.

Jay Jaffe

1:01

They have a 5 1/2 game lead with three weeks to go and the team pursuing them has major injuries, too.

Our odds give them a 97.8% chance for a reason.

Dakota Hudson

1:02

How am I doing it? Jeremy Hellickson Voodoo Magic?

Jay Jaffe

1:04

It's a combination of the majors' highest groundball rate, a good job limiting hard contact, and a very good defense behind him.

Ryan

1:04

Do you follow the NFL at all? If so, which baseball player had a career most reminiscent of Andrew Luck, i.e., a career full of potential and flashes of brilliance, but ultimately derailed by injuries and an abrupt retirement?

Jay Jaffe

1:05

I don't follow football closely but maybe Johan Santana or Brandon Webb?

Guest

1:05

the highest ground ball rat - sounds like a mascot for a Colorado independent league team

Jay Jaffe

1:06

LOL at that typo (which i fixed). A few weeks ago "strikeout rat" made it into an article of mine and made me yearn for a giant inflatable rodent to protest the rising tide of punchouts.

comsin

1:07

Rays have BY FAR the toughest schedule remaining in the WC race. You still like them above the Indians?

Jay Jaffe

1:08

yes very much so, and so do our odds by about 85% to 35%, with the A's at 77%.

Bryan

1:09

Aaron Boone deserves all the votes for Manager of the Year....right?

Jay Jaffe

1:10

I think he deserves consideration but so do Baldelli and Cash. Voters don't tend to favor managers with $200M payrolls in this regard because the implicit expectation is that they're supposed to win.

1:11

Even Alex Cora - with 108 wins (and ultimately a championship, though voters couldn't have known it at the time) - as a rookie came in 2nd last year.

Archer

1:13

I live in metro-Detroit, and I've heard that Detroit bagels are (generally) better than New York bagels, with the reasoning being that the water quality is superior in Michigan, which improves the boiling process. Do you find this plausible?

Jay Jaffe

1:15

Heh, who knows. NYC has very good tap water, but that doesn't necessarily mean it's the best for bagel making. However, the water is just one element of the process.

the recipe matters, and the collective knowledge about bagel-making in this city, not to mention the level of competition, probably produces better bagels.

1:16

It would be tough to do any kind of side-by-side comparison under optimum conditions, so the debate will rage eternally.

Home Runs in MiLB & MLB

1:16

Question & potential article idea: Wouldn't MLB organizations, themselves, be upset with MLB the company for what they have done with the baseball? Meaning ... MLB teams have spent millions of dollars on amateur players and then spend time and effort procuring these players thru the minor leagues and are presumably moved up thru the chains based upon a combination of stats and projection ... and yet, they get to AAA and then MLB and since the baseball is radically different, their 'game' can be rendered obsolete [think, some pitchers may not be able to spin the ball correctly, some hitters who can hit well with the juiced ball, but don't hit so well without it, or some who hit better with a non-juiced ball and the juiced ball doesn't aid them so much]. It would seem that MLB teams would want the playing field to be level from Rookie level day 1 to MLB so that they can accurately judge their own player talent [to say nothing of the year-by-year changes of the ball that affect free agency decisions]

Jay Jaffe

1:17

I know there are some complaints being voiced about the Triple A ball/player development situation. As to how loud they are and how much they force MLB's hand, we'll probably have a better idea after the GM meetings this fall.

Mike

1:17

Kinsler vs Pedroia is a fascinating compare/contrast study, but do either make the HOF?

Jay Jaffe

1:19

They're 18th and 19th in JAWS among 2B, but neither crosses any of the career/peak/JAWS standards and it will probably remain that way. Kinsler's next hit is number 2,000 but he doesn't have the hardware that Pedroia has. If the latter could have kept playing past 2,000 hits (he has 1,805) I'd have bet that he'd make it.

1:19

Shelsky’s salt and pepper bagel is one of the very best. Would highly recommend.

Jay Jaffe

1:19

You know, they're not too far from me but I've never tried them. Will give them a look/taste.

BarryBondsJuicedForOurSins

1:20

Think Acuna can get MVP if he gets that 40/40?

Jay Jaffe

1:20

not with Bellinger and Yelich likely pushing 50 homers and having big advantages in WAR.

1:23

OK, folks, it's been great to chat today but I've got to go get myself some lunch and then figure out what I'm writing for tomorrow. The Pineda piece should be up very soon as well. Until next week, have a good one

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