JotCast | Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 9/9/19

Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 9/9/19

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Jay Jaffe

12:48

it's going to be such a coin toss. The stats say Cole's been better, and he's likely to get to 300 K (he's at 292), which could make Verlander a bridesmaid yet again.

RE: Edmonds

12:48

Why are you not convinced on Edmonds? He has a nearly identical slash line to Griffey and better defensive metrics. just not as high of a peak or counting stats

Jay Jaffe

12:50

Because he's 15th in JAWS compared to 9th, 10th, 11th for the other three, further below the standards, and has less in the way of traditional stats as well. You do know I've written about all of these guys at length, right? https://www.si.com/mlb/2015/12/14/jaws-2016-hall-of-fame-ballot-jim-ed...

troke

12:50

Scrolling through the list of career WAR leaders not in the Hall, what do you know about Jim McCormick ?

Jay Jaffe

12:55

Relatively little beyond the numbers and the basics in his SABR bio. He was an early pioneer of the curveball. He was throwing 500+ innings when the game was very different in terms of what was allowed pitching-wise, how many balls and strikes, etc. Frankly, I'm not tremendously compelled by the idea of admitting more guys from the 1880s, even if he is the best of them. There's a Twitter account devoted to getting his numbers in front of people in hopes of getting him on the ballot https://twitter.com/McCormick_HOF

Girardi

12:55

Boone makes... questionable pitching decisions at times. But do you think the team would have done as well amidst the injuries with Girardi's personality in place? Or is this sort of stuff just random and impossible to find a cause for? (Ie, maybe the replacement players are just good)

Jay Jaffe

12:58

It's unknowable, and for every theory about Boone having a way with younger players, you've got things like Gary Sanchez declining on his watch despite less friction there than with Girardi. I do think that Joe was the better handler of the bullpen, one of the best I've seen. Boone has a lot to prove in that area, but he can't do it if the Yankees don't get out of the first round.

Callaway

12:58

I should be fired, right? Are these little hot streaks enough to save me? Because then we lose again.

Jay Jaffe

12:59

I'd have fired you over the incident with the Newsday reporter.

Nate

1:00

Have a prediction for how big of a contract Gerrit Cole lands this winter? We'll assume he lands the Cy Young here to make it more interesting

Jay Jaffe

1:01

Maybe not $200 million plus given the frigidity of the recent free agent markets but bigger than Corbin's 6/$140 million.

lipton

1:02

reading clemens' article on facing LAD in the playoffs reminds me how punishing the current best of 1 wildcard playoff can be for teams already only marginally contending. if you had any say, what would be your preferred wild card scenario / fix?

Jay Jaffe

1:02

I much prefer it this way to the previous one. You go in through the side door, you should be at a disadvantage.

Marshall

1:03

How useful is WAR for evaluating pitchers' careers? For as dominant as Kershaw has been (granted, I'm a Dodger fan), his WAR (individual seasons or collectively) don't stand out compared to prior generations.

Jay Jaffe

1:05

With pitchers you do have to be mindful of the changing workloads, something I've covered extensively in HOF-related discussions. Kershaw is already within an eyelash of the WAR7 standard for starting pitchers through his age-31 season. What's more, he's led his league in bWAR three times, with three other top-three finishes plus a fifth and a seventh — and that's in 12 seasons of work. Very clearly one of the best of his generation, and an easy guy to vote for when his time comes

RE: Edmonds

1:05

Didnt know new to fangraphs sorry

Jay Jaffe

1:06

Hey, I'm relatively new here, too. Debuted in February 2018. Long story short (something no editor would accuse me of), I've written about every Hall of Fame candidate since 2004 somewhere that's still online.

Sanchez

1:07

Would you agree that Gary maybe read too much of the "your blocking is bad!" stuff (esp when he hit poorly/was injured last year) and focused so hard on that (and it is better) that he's now a jumpy, fidgetty, poor framer, and that the metrics (rightly) focus more on the later whereas the commentary focuses on blocking?

Jay Jaffe

1:09

I don't think we can discount the physical stuff. The endless groin injuries. That's gotta make squatting and rising and squatting and rising a real grind. But yes, his framing has suffered and it might have to do with a tradeoff between that and blocking

georgehermanski

1:09

Matheney was hired by Royals as special assistant and supposedly successor to Ned Yost.

Jay Jaffe

1:09

I forgot that the Royals existed. LOL that is f'ing perfect.

Adam

1:10

Do the Braves/2-seed have an advantage over the Dodgers/1-seed in terms of DS opponent, not having to face Washington in the DS? Or does Washington's odds of losing the WC game negate the fact that they're a stronger opponent than St. Louis?

Jay Jaffe

1:15

There's more to any playoff matchup than just the resumés of the starting pitchers. The Nationals have to burn one of their top starters for the WC game (which they could lose), and they also have the health of Scherzer to be concerned about. Plus that bullpen has been very bad as a unit even since the 7/31 deadline and the additions of the not-bad Hudson and Rodney https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=rel&lg=nl&qual=0&...

Tom the Bomb

1:15

Dick Allen HOF worthy ? I think so

Jay Jaffe

1:15

yes https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/32361/the-cooperstown-...

Pat

1:16

Of all the penny wise, pound foolish things to do, organizations worth billions of $$ with payroll between $100-200 million going cheap on the person managing the payroll is right up there. Is it really worth paying some unknown $700K vs paying Maddon or Girardi $2M?

Jay Jaffe

1:17

i agree, it's kind of silly that most managers are making less than backup catchers or setup relievers despite being in positions of authority — and their salaries don't count against the CBT threshold.

cavebird

1:17

Can a person get into the HOF twice? For example, the talk about McCormick led me to wonder whether, if MLB ever recognized the National Association, AJ Spalding could make it as a player. He's already in as a pioneer, but he was the dominant pitcher of the NA.

Jay Jaffe

1:18

No, unlike the Basketball Hall of Fame (i'm not sure about the others). Once you're in, you're in, and your plaque will acknowledge accomplishments in areas peripheral to what got you in, as with Joe Torre https://baseballhall.org/hall-of-famers/torre-joe

Ralph Rowdie

1:19

Have we seen Cody Bellinger’s best season or can he continue to be in the Trout/Betts/Yelich stratosphere next season?

Jay Jaffe

1:20

Given that he's just 24 and has tremendous athleticism, i don't think it's a guarantee we've seen Bellinger's best season, but nobody, not even Yelich or Betts, is on Mike Trout's plane of existence.

Ben Dubose

1:22

RE: Bregman's value on the Astros, I think you should remember that he started 53 games at SS, which has been very valuable given how brittle Correa is.

Jay Jaffe

1:22

yes, it's a minor point in his favor. Still, Marwin Gonzalez could have done that, too.

Roger

1:22

Re: Lindor and the all-time post-season PAs: Do you think Lindor will necessarily land with a contender in free agency? I'm thinking of A-Rod landing with the Rangers or Machado signing with the Padres. Something could similar could certainly impair Lindor's post-season prospects, but perhaps Lindor is more dedicated to remaining with a current contender?

Jay Jaffe

1:27

well, when you think of the kind of money it's going to take to sign Lindor, it's probably not going to be the Pirates or Reds or Mariners signing him. Two-plus years out, I'd guess that the Yankees and Cubs are the most likely based on the fact that both can print money (ownership's protestations to the contrary) and neither has a foundational shortstop in place.

Guest

1:27

How about Kyle Lewis? A late season aberration or a long term bright spot for the Mariners?

Jay Jaffe

1:29

Right now, it's just a very cool thing but probably also an aberration. Eric and Kiley have him as a 45 FV guy with LOTS of concerns about the hit too. MLP Pipeline has him as a 45 as well. Maybe he's more than that, sure, but he ain't gonna slug .920 forever.

Adam

1:30

How worried are you about Jansen heading into October? He looked good last night and says he figured out a mechanical issue, but he's had more of those the last couple years, and less margin for error.

Jay Jaffe

1:30

We've heard that he's figured out mechanical issues before. He rates as a serious concern for the Dodgers, as even a single failure at the wrong time could derail them.

John

1:30

Not to rain on a parade, but don't any of the Dodgers figure in the possibility of getting to the number of PA's that Jeter got just because they are in the playoff so often?

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