You are viewing the chat in desktop mode. Click here to switch to mobile view.
X
Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 9/9/22
powered byJotCast
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:00
Good afternoon, folks, and welcome to another Friday chat!
2:01
I've got a piece up today about the Rays' surge into the top AL Wild Card spot https://blogs.fangraphs.com/amid-a-slew-of-injuries-the-rays-have-surg...
2:03
And yesterday I wrote about the Mets losing Max Scherzer and (briefly, for now) first place in the NL East https://blogs.fangraphs.com/mets-lose-scherzer-and-momentarily-their-n...
2:04
Also, I bantered with Dan Szymborski about Ohtani, Judge, and the AL MVP race as well as Zac Gallen chasing Orel Hershiser's scoreless streak on this week's FanGraphs Audio https://blogs.fangraphs.com/fangraphs-audio-catching-coordinator-bobby...
Bear with me for a moment as my lunch just arrived...
Guest
2:05
Thoughts on the new rule changes reported yesterday? I've wanted pitch clocks for awhile but actually looking at the rule there's 50 different ways that the batter or the pitcher can break the rule. I'm worried it's gonna feel ridiculous when the Sox lose to the Twins because Aaron Bummer forgot how many times he stepped off the rubber or whatever.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:08
Conceptually I'm in favor of a pitch clock, I've come around on the idea that it's worth seeing what banning the shift would do, and the bigger bases are fine. However, there are some complexities to the rules changes that I honestly haven''t taken the time to digest yet. I know i'm supposed to have a blistering hot take here, but the stove ain't lit yet
Erik
2:09
I get active enjoyment from the shift. Watching Manny Machado catch a ball in foul territory in right field makes me happier than a seeing-eye single ever will. Am I more in the minority than I thought?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:13
I get the appeal of seeing something so out-of-the-ordinary but feelings about the shift tend to correlate with whoever's ox is being gored. Me, I've come around to the idea that the drop in league-wide batting average is a long-term problem; the disappearance of singles that move baserunners is a drain on the amount of action going on, and I think that's what people feel is the biggest problem with the game
Curious Jorge
2:14
Does Longerhagen not do chats anymore?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:18
I won't presume to speak for anyone else's availability but when I'm overworked, overscheduled, and/or overtired, forgoing the chat is a first line of defense. I'm sure you all have prospect questions but most of them will probably still be relevant next week or whenever
HoF Question
2:18
Are the Cardinals the team with the most surefire HOFers on the roster with Pujols, Molina, Goldschmidt, and Arenado? Dodgers have Kersh, Betts, and maybe Freeman. The Mets have Mad Max, DeGrom, and Lindor. But I don't think anyone else has 4.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:21
You're stretching the definition of surefire there. I think probable is the more apt term for everybody you mention besides Pujols, Kershaw, and Scherzer, and I don't see Lindor or deGrom as probable yet. Possible but not at the tipping point.
2:22
But yes, I think the Cardinals have the most probable HOFers right now. Late last year it was the Dodgers who had 4 with Pujols and Scherzer
David
2:22
If they stay relatively healthy, it’s possible that Trout and Harper can ultimately combine for more than 200 WAR by the time they retire. Have there been other pairs of rookies who started their much-anticipated MLB careers at about the same time and combined for such a high level of production?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:25
Mickey Mantle debuted with the Yankees and Willie Mays with the Giants within a six-week span in 1951. I don't think they were as highly anticipated by the general public because prospects weren't as well publicized but I don't think you're going to find a higher-value pair whose debuts were as close
Pepe
2:26
How much more does DeGrom have to do to make the Hall of Fame (other than gain eligibility by throwing a pitch in his 10th season, which is 2023)? He seems like an interesting test case for "quality over quantity."
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:29
I wrote in early 2021 (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/jacob-degrom-might-be-blazing-his-way-to-c...) about deGrom possibly being a Koufaxian exception, but since then he missed more than a full year. He really needs to stay healthy and probably add a third Cy Young award in order to punch his ticket. Without the hardware, he's this generation's Johan Santana, and we saw him get just 2.4% in 2018.
Joe
2:30
Thoughts on Judge and Pujols chances of reaching their milestones?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:32
I think the math is still against both but I hope Judge gets to 62 and Pujols to 700. Might check in on both soon
Jim
2:32
I know they’re still in first place (today) but I can’t shake the feeling that the Yankees are doomed to a first round flop, then god knows what next year. Are they doomed or am I just a Yankees fan?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:34
they look pretty bad right now but I've studied the matter over and over and there's just not much correlation between September performance and October success. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-cardinals-impressive-winning-streak-do...
2:35
Now, if they weren't getting Rizzo, LeMahieu, Severino, and possibly others back, and were sending this week's horseshit lineups into the Division Series, I wouldn't give them much of a chance to win the World Series, but that's because those lineups aren't representative of the work that got them to that stage.
Dan
2:38
Will we have roboumps next year?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:39
Not in the majors. 2024 is possible if things go well in the minors and with further testing but those aren't guarantees.
mmddyyyy
2:40
How long would it take you to name every player in the Hall?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:41
Ha, i've never tried. I bet if you gave me a couple hours I could get very close because I wrote about all of them besides the Negro Leagues players for the Casebook
Pitch_Out
2:41
Did you hear the Katie Sharp stat that over the past month, Judge has had a 230 wRC+ and all other Yankees combined for a 54 wRC+ and were worth -0.5 WAR? Incredible. I think Ohtani is having a great season but context has to matter in the MVP race, right? Judge has strapped the Yankees to his back and is carrying them.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:41
2:43
if context matters for Judge, it has to matter for Ohtani too, and here's some context for you: in an AL/NL context, NOBODY IN THE PAST CENTURY HAS DONE WHAT HE'S DOING, EXCEPT SOME GUY NAMED OHTANI LAST YEAR.
2:44
this is a unicorn race. Which unicorn you prefer is up to you.
Guest
2:44
how do you think front offices will adjust to the bigger bases? Is there going to be a significant shift towards building faster teams that steal more bases, or do you think the change isn’t big enough to cause a big philosophical change from the way things are right now?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:46
I don't think the bigger bases themselves will have a huge impact on base stealing but the pitch clock-related limitations on the number of throws will. And I think we'll see some experimentation before anyone discovers how much this will really have an impact from a philosophical standpoint.
JK
2:47
Do you still have any hope for Jared Kelenic, above average major league player or has that ship sailed?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:47
he's 23, so yes, I still have hope, but I think his ceiling is lower and that he might need an org change to reach it.
Sodo Mojo
2:49
Jay thank you for doing the chat given Mitch Hanigers recent form and injury history what should the Mariners do this off season?  Offer him a QA, Give him and incentive laden deal?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:51
I don't think he merits a qualifying offer but I do think he's worth retaining given the aforementioned failure of Kelenic  as well as Kyle Lewis' injury troubles. A multiyear deal with incentives and escalators seems like the way to go.
Did you know
2:51
Spencer Strider has the second best FIP amongst rookie pitchers with at least 120 IP in the modern era, behind only Dwight Gooden. And literally the best FIP- amongst rookie pitchers with the same IP minimum in the history if baseball.
Justin
2:52
At what point is it okay to get irrationally excited about the future of Michael Harris II?
Load More Messages
Connecting…