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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 9/9/22
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AvatarJay Jaffe
2:55
Strider and Harris have both been remarkable, helping to turn the Braves' season around and making for quite the Rookie of the Year race. I'm more skeptical about whether Strider can continue to dominate with a two-pitch approach — it works great when he's averaging 98 mph but it's very tough to maintain that velocity for long as a starter, and what does the picture look like when he's down to 96?

Harris is well above his Statcast expected numbers, and I worry about that 4.7% walk rate and 43% O-Swing rate, but he's clearly a keeper, as the Braves obviously recognized via his extension.
mmddyyyy
2:55
When the number of teams changes, will there still be 1000 WAR/year?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:58
I'm pretty sure it will be scaled upwards. The 1000 WAR/year applies to the 30-team era, which has been in place since 1998, meaning that it's been in place since WAR was invented, though it wasn't until 2013 that bWAR and fWAR were unified to the same replacement level https://blogs.fangraphs.com/unifying-replacement-level/
With 32 teams, 1000 WAR/3 scales up to 1066.7 WAR
mmddyyyy
2:59
Considering there are more All Star selections overall now, and the fact that every team gets one, is total all star teams made now worth less when considering the value of a career?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:02
All-Star appearances is a number that needs historical context at just about every turn. There was no All-Star Game before 1933. From 1933-60, there were just eight teams in each league so making the team was easier. From 1959-62 two All-Star Games were played each season, which spread the honor out a bit (and created some headaches for those of us more interested in counting All-Star seasons than All-Star Games played in). Expansion taking us from 16 to 30 teams reduces the likelihood of a player making the team to a greater degree than the slightly expanded rosters do to increase their chances
DC in STL
3:03
What to make of Dylan Carlson? Pretty disappointing year. Do you think he has a shot at being a multiple All Star, or is he going to be an average-ish player for his career? Jon Jay with more pop and less speed.
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:07
Carlson's offense has been a disappointment so far, but at the same time he's shown that he's an above-average center fielder, which wasn't really the expectation two years ago (Eric called him "a situational center fielder" in his 2020 writeup). He's still just 23 so I wouldn't give up on him and I certainly don't see the Cardinals doing so; on the contrary, they traded Harrison Bader
john maynor
3:07
who wins the excitingly mediocre AL Central? and do any of those three not get wiped immediately in the playoffs?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:09
Probably the Guardians but jeez, all three teams seem pretty mediocre; they're all below .500 in terms of combined records against  the AL East and West, and only the White Sox are even .500 once  you fold interleague play into that.
Stats
3:10
Sorry, I accidentally hit send early.  comparing Jeter’s numbers to Altuve’s I see that Altuve’s are consistently stronger when adjusted to era. However, Jeter’s oWAR is much higher (even though their same age). Is this discrepancy from base running or is SS that much of a difference than 2B or both? Thank you
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:13
Jeter has BIG advantages in baserunning and positional adjustments. https://stathead.com/tiny/Rls7A
Guest
3:14
Do you think the owners are going to regret going so extreme with the pitch clock when games are 45 minutes shorter and they realize they've blown 20% of their concessions revenue? (Plus for pitchers something like :18 would have been an easier transition and still 6 seconds quicker than the current avg.)
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:14
not if it increases viewership and the value of their broadcast rights contracts.
TL Hopper
3:15
How can Taylor Walls simultanously be the best defensive SS, UZR, and the worst OAA/DRS?  fWAR and bWAR, one has him as pretty much the worst player in baseball, the other an average regular.
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:17
3:19
Oh, and speaking of Jeter, I spoke to Ken Davidoff about him for a piece here https://www.mlb.com/yankees/news/yankees-mag-more-than-enough. I'm sure that will change everybody's minds about him ;-)
Josh
3:19
What are you most looking forward to following over the next month? AL WC? NLE? Goldy triple crown? Dodgers 110+?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:20
Those are all fun, as is Judge's HR pursuit, everything Ohtani does, the ROY races... man, we have a lot to enjoy.
Dick Allen is a Hall of Famer
3:20
Only 5 qualified hitters this year have as high a wRC+ as Mr. Allen averaged for his whole career.
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:20
you're preaching to the choir here.
Soros
3:21
Where do you come down on true compilers like Yadier Molina and the HOF? I've given up on fighting his candidacy, especially after the Baines fiasco but I'd love the Hall to have players that were actually like top 5 (or higher) players in the game at their peak.
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:25
Even as somebody who's been the low guy on Molina at times, I'd be hard-pressed to call him a compiler, and when you say "top-five" type players you're implicitly telling me that you're disregarding defense and want only heavy hitters whose numbers jump out at you. That Hall of Fame doesn't exist except in your mind, and you're certainly free to keep it there but it ain't happening in Cooperstown.
Insert Witty Name Here
3:27
Does playing in NY make deGrom a slightly better bet than Johan on the ballot? I watched Johan in his prime, and deGrom is so much better.
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:28
If you want to go buy what each player did in his first 1300-ish innings in MLB, deGrom has the advantages in ERA+ (159 to 141) and bWAR (41.5 to 35.8) https://stathead.com/baseball/player-comparison.cgi?request=1&sum=1&pl...
3:31
However, within their careers, deGrom has topped 6.0 WAR just twice, where Santana topped 7.0 WAR four times. Santana had five seasons of 219 innings or more where deGrom's high is 217.
3:33
The usage patterns have changed, but both were/are remarkable. Santana probalby should have had a third Cy Young award, which might have changed the Hall conversation. Will deGrom, who's already had one TJ, even last long enough to accumulate another ~720 innings and surpass Santana's meager career total? I don't think it's a guarantee.
Dan
3:33
If you had a few million to spend on sports memorabilia what would you buy?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:35
Oh jeez. I'm not a huge memorabilia guy because I live in a New York City apartment and, after all, am a writer not a stock trader or somebody with that kind of disposable income. I'd have to think about that a bit, but maybe bats of Ruth, Mays, and Aaron, and something from the streaks of Fernando Valenzuela and Orel Hershiser would be where I'd start.
Erik
3:35
How excited are you for the "61 iS tHe ReAL rEcoRd" talk down the stretch?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:36
It's as easy to flick away as a fly on a picnic plate
73 is the major league (and NL) record. Judge has a shot at the AL and franchise record. That's plenty cool enough.
3:38
it shouldn't matter, but Judge did his best to deflect the silliness by noting that he regards Bonds as the record-holder. "“That’s the record. I watched him do it. I stayed up late watching him do it. That’s the record. No one can take that from him.”
Matt VW
3:38
With likeliest playoff participants in mind, which potential World Series matchup strikes you as the most intriguing / appealing?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:39
I want Dodgers-Yankees. That's what made me a baseball fan in the first place and I've spent more time writing about and watching those two teams in my lifetime than any other.
Darryl Vanilla
3:39
Peak DeGrom or Peak Pedro?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:42
Peak Pedro. From 1997-2003, he had a 213 ERA+ in 1400 innings, which is more than deGrom has thrown in his entire major league career.
Pedro
3:42
Where do you come down on Dwight Evans' omission from the Hall? Thanks
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:42
I'm pro-Evans. Wrote about him for the 2020 ballot and think he's got a shot sooner or later https://blogs.fangraphs.com/underappreciated-in-his-time-dwight-evans-...
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