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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 9/9/25
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AvatarJay Jaffe
1:13
Yes. Somebody will take the risk because the ceiling is so high
Nancy's Friend Sluggo
1:13
Where do you stand on player/managers getting into the Hall if they were very good at both things but not great at either?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:15
Gotta be great at something. Great is a pretty malleable term and we can haggle over the specifics but I need to be convinced a guy was at least in the argument for one of the best at one of his roles.
Nancy's Friend Sluggo
1:15
I've always tried to look at potential HOFers objectively for their performance and not pay attention to their personalities, but Schilling makes it impossible for me. Are you able to separate the players from the noise, even if it's ugly noise?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:16
It's become difficult to impossible once the writers began invoking the so-called character clause.
Which really was barely paid attention to before Mark McGwire hit the ballot in 2007.
Dan
1:16
If Juan Soto can be a leader in steal does that mean he or his base coach figured something out that isn't related to physical skills and over the off-season other faster players will figure out what it is and next year will be a huge number of steals?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:19
As noted within, some of this owes to the 2023 introduction of the disengagement rule and the larger bases, but the Mets have an excellent first base coach in Antoan Richardson, who has done some drills with video to help players learn various pitchers' moves to first. Soto is already a very, very hard worker who has a great eye for detail when studying video, so add that to the advantages that runners now have and you've got a template for more players getting more aggressive when it comes to stealing.
Guest
1:19
Hi Jay!  Very dumb question that I can’t seem to find an answer to.  How does say a Sac Fly (that brings in a run) impact WRC and WAR?  Do those formulas tab it as an out like any other?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:20
It's just another out as far as wRC+ and WAR are concerned. Those gains would be captured in something situational such as WPA or RE24 (and of course RBI)
bringbackpologrounds
1:20
Sorry if this is a basic question, but when will we learn who makes it onto the contemporary era ballot?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:21
Early November.
2131, 1312
1:21
If Verlander (3.64 FIP) and Scherzer (4.95 FIP) still aren't ready to hang it up after this season, is there a market for either of them? What kinds of contenders might take a swing?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:22
almost certainly some kind of market, but teams will be looking at them as 4/5 starters good for maybe 20-25 starts rather than a full workload.
1:23
They'll cost more than the typical 4/5, of course, so don't wait up for them in places like Cincinnati, Cleveland, Tampa Bay, Milwaukee, etc.
WestCoastPhan
1:24
Non-JAWS HOF question for you. Trea Turner has 26 on the Black Ink metric (avg. HOF has 27). How much do you consider those other rules-of-thumb when thinking about a player's HOF chances? Also, how much do you look at the fWAR numbers (e.g. Turner is at 47.5 fWAR but only 41.9 bWAR) -- I get JAWS doesn't use fWAR, but do you consider it?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:27
For a guy like Turner, where the defensive systems are so far apart, it will probably make sense to keep fWAR in mind if it's a dramatic contrast to bWAR but for the most part they tend to be close enough to work with except at catcher, where fWAR's ability to capture framing (and bWAR not even trying to) makes it my tool of choice.
1:28
Black ink makes much more sense to look at for offense-first positions. Nobody should expect a shortstop or catcher to have the same amount of black ink as a first baseman.
Ok folks, that's it from me for today! Thanks so much for stopping by. Please tip your waiters and waitresses.
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