You are viewing the chat in desktop mode. Click here to switch to mobile view.
X
Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 1/11/19
powered byJotCast
Jeff Sullivan
9:04
Hello friends
Welcome to Friday baseball chat
Syndergaardians of the Galaxy
9:04
I keep hearing that the NL central is the best division in baseball. I didn't believe it, but I added up the projected WAR OF every division, and I'll be danged but sure nuff, it really was the best. But what really blew my mind was the tiny separation in projected WAR between the #1 team and the #5 team in that division--11.5 WAR, barely half of the next best division. Has there ever before been a divisional projection that tight in the FG era?
Jeff Sullivan
9:06
Let me say this: it's too early to perform this kind of analysis, because the offseason still has a long way to go, and our projections right now are just Steamer instead of Steamer and ZiPS
And I think what people probably mean is that the NL Central might have five at least decently competitive teams. In the NL East, there should be four competitive teams and the Marlins
9:07
I don't know what more the Reds are going to do. I don't know if the Pirates are going to do anything. But it'll be fun. The whole NL should be fun -- a lot crazier than this year's upcoming AL
Pachuca
9:07
Do you like Travis Shaw as a potential MVP darkhorse for 2019? K and BB numbers moved in very encouraging directions last year...
Jeff Sullivan
9:08
That is a very dark horse
Airport Banana
9:09
If the Brewers can add an average or better 2B, where does their lineup rank in the NL?
Jeff Sullivan
9:10
It's a good lineup, but there are a lot of good lineups in the NL, like the Nationals, Cubs, Cardinals, Dodgers, Reds...
9:11
With a second baseman, the Brewers might push into the top five. But they'll still be playing Arcia almost every day. In the NL, it's a crowded field
stever20
9:12
What are the Dodgers going to do at catcher now that Grandal is gone for sure?
Jeff Sullivan
9:12
Feels like Francisco Cervelli is the obvious fit provided the Dodgers are satisfied with his concussion recovery
9:13
You wonder if someone like Russell Martin would alternatively work. In any case, just a short-term stopgap until one of the kids is ready
Fangraph's Lurker
9:13
My new plan to pay off my student loans from law school is to convince the white sox that machado and I are close friends. Chances I can get atleast a 200k contract out of that?
Jeff Sullivan
9:13
You're going to have to create some fake internet portals
9:14
Can you mirror an Athletic article with an old timestamp? Need an electronic paper trail
Joe
9:15
Steamer predicts -2.2 WAR for Lourdes Gurriel Jr in 2019. To me, that's insane;  Gurriel tied Tony Perez with an 11-game multi-hit streak last season — a streak snapped only by injury. Am I nuts for being bullish on Gurriel?
Jeff Sullivan
9:15
To be clear for everyone, the WAR projection is positive, not negative
What I would cite is that, for all the positives, Gurriel also wound up with 59 strikeouts and eight unintentional walks
9:16
In a small sample, he rated as a strongly negative defensive shortstop
I don't see anything too terribly wrong with the projection
Shane DeStefano
9:18
What do you see the mets doing with Jeff McNeil now that they have murdered his value at 2B? Are the reports that he is moving to the OF to be believed?
Jeff Sullivan
9:19
I do think the Mets see McNeil as a potential utility player. But with Conforto, Nimmo, Broxton, and Lagares, they don't need much playing time sopped up in the outfield. And clearly, the infield is crowded right now
9:21
Something that's easy to forget is that McNeil has options -- even though he slaughtered the minors last season, he could always return, if the roster doesn't have room
9:22
Some will come down to Alonso. Some will come down to whether the Mets keep Frazier. Based on the current personnel it's not easy to get McNeil more than 100-200 plate appearances, but the Mets know better than most teams that you tend to need more depth than you expect
9:23
I don't think this is how I would've run my offseason in New York, but I'm also a pretty big McNeil fan, and I think he's ready to be a regular
mark appel
9:24
who will breakout next year
Jeff Sullivan
9:24
About a tenth of the players we write about breaking out in April and May
Brian Cashman
9:24
Which relative, childhood friend, or dog of Manny Machado must I sign to remain competitive with the White Sox and Phillies?
Jeff Sullivan
9:24
Take the money you would give to his loved ones, and then, hear me out -- give that money to Manny Machado
Dustin
9:25
is it so crazy to think that the brewers could make a real splash and go grab bryce harper? Give him a 4, 5 year opt-out and really try to maximize this current window they have with yelich and cain?
Jeff Sullivan
9:26
Yes
I mean, on paper, of course you could fit Harper in Milwaukee, but they just can't possibly compete with other teams' resources
They're already projected for easily the highest opening-day payroll in club history
9:27
To say nothing of the challenge of moving pieces around on that roster to accommodate Harper in the first place
Bort
9:27
Tyler Chatwood: is there any hope here? Bob Tewksbury got brought on as their mental skills coach, and his problems seemed like they were mostly located inside his noggin.
Jeff Sullivan
9:28
Chatwood, 2017: 58% strikes
Chatwood, 2018: 56% strikes
MLB average: ~64% strikes
9:29
There's definitely hope for anyone that young, with that raw stuff. The Rays just got Tyler Glasnow to find the strike zone. But I wouldn't be so quick to conclude the problems are mental. Chatwood has never really thrown many strikes, and he's been at this for years
9:30
I'd like to see someone commit to using him somewhat regularly out of the bullpen. Give him a couple months to find his footing. Still shutdown reliever potential
Load More Messages
Connecting…