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Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 1/11/19
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stever20
9:31
Why do you think the postseason this year has impacted free agency more this year than before?
Jeff Sullivan
9:31
Do I think that?
9:32
The patterns are basically the same. We're pretty clearly seeing more and more resources committed to the bullpen
Mandy is 92% Fresh
9:33
As a baseball market, Portland is closest to what current MLB market?
Jeff Sullivan
9:33
Pittsburgh?
Stevil
9:35
Russell Martin and Cavan Biggio to Seattle for Jay Bruce, 8 million, and Josh Stowers. Who says no?
Jeff Sullivan
9:35
Quite possibly Jay Bruce, given that the Blue Jays are on his limited no-trade list
9:37
So the Mariners add $7 million in payroll, *and* they pay another $8 million?
9:38
It's not like the Mariners would really care about having Russell Martin in the immediate. Not at all clear Biggio is a markedly better prospect than Stowers
Mariners shoot it down
AJ
9:39
Thoughts on all the talk that the Phillies are signing Harper tomorrow?
Jeff Sullivan
9:39
I bet they're not!
Kasvot Vaxt
9:39
Now that JT Realmuto's salary should be set by 1pm ET today (unless he goes to trial), does this increase the likelihood he gets moved soon since he'll have cost certainty?
Jeff Sullivan
9:40
Shouldn't make any meaningful difference, barring a huge surprise. Everyone knows what he'll get paid within about a million or so
Pachuca
9:41
Eric Thames is looking more and more like the odd man out in Milwaukee. What could the Brewers realistically do with him?
Jeff Sullivan
9:42
It's funny -- a year ago, in spring, it didn't seem like the Brewers had a place for Jesus Aguilar. Then he batted 566 times and made the All-Star Game
9:45
Given how Aguilar regressed down the stretch, it wouldn't be a bad thing if the Brewers could keep Thames around as insurance. You can see how his season might've been derailed by that torn thumb UCL. When he's been hot, he's been really hot. Not many other options -- on the trade market, Thames would generate low-level interest
Casual fan
9:46
Would Giants pair Smith with Longo to help dump some of that salary? Calhoun and Cozart for Smith and Longo make sense for both teams?
Jeff Sullivan
9:47
Smith is a contract-year reliever
9:48
The Giants owe Longoria something like another $61.5 million
9:49
Longoria is 33 years old, and he's coming off an 85 wRC+
I think the Angels will take their chances with Calhoun and Cozart
J
9:50
Given how saturated the FA 2B market is, is it fair to say the money/prospects the Mets spent on acquiring Cano was a poor allocation of their resources?
Jeff Sullivan
9:50
I don't think it was a great allocation of their resources, but that wasn't a trade for Robinson Cano. That was a trade for Edwin Diaz
9:51
The 2B market might be saturated, but if Diaz were a free agent, he'd make a god damned fortune
cash money
9:53
How can the Yankees justify spending only about a third of their revenue on player salaries? I understand the hesitancy of Machado, but Yanks have 1-2 WS in the last two years if they added Verlander, but choose not to to safe a billionaire a few million...
Jeff Sullivan
9:54
It probably goes without saying, but, no, you can't just take a World Series for granted given one single player addition
9:56
Okay, so, on the one hand, the Yankees are a cash cow. The biggest cash cow in baseball. If they wanted, they could sustain a payroll of like $300 million every season. Yeah, there would be insane overages over time, but, they could pay them! They're the Yankees!
9:58
On the other hand, we don't know the Yankees' *actual* revenues, and they invest a whole lot of money that doesn't go to the on-field personnel. And, very importantly, the Yankees are extremely good. They're a super team. Spending has hardly held them back; they do almost whatever they want
9:59
When you have good, young players, it's actually hard to spend that much. Arbitration prices will increase. Maybe we'll see some long-term contract extensions. The Yankees are coming out of a transition phase. There's no excuse for them to ever be bad again
10:00
Let's see where the Yankees are four years from now
Mandy is 92% Fresh
10:00
If you were the Royals and setting aside the minor league system, are there any players on the current roster that you would keep long term to build around?
Jeff Sullivan
10:00
Mondesi
10:01
Probably Junis
Potentially Perez and Merrifield, but I don't know how long-term we're talking about
gilby
10:02
With Dipotos plan to limit Kikuchi's innings where do you think he will end up in terms of WAR.  Is 3 being to optimistic or is that about right?
Jeff Sullivan
10:03
I'd go a little bit lower than that, just because Kikuchi might end up at like 150 innings. But Marco Gonzales just finished at 3.6 in 166.2
Relatedly, I'm still waiting for a Kikuchi projection and player page. That's why he remains absent from the Mariners' team depth chart
Hae-Lo Dee
10:03
Seattle has cleared a ton of money off the books this winter, and shown a willingness to buy talent for their next window of contention by snagging Kikuchi. Do thing there's any change they get involved in the Harper/Machado sweepstakes?
Jeff Sullivan
10:03
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