Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 1/15/16
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Jeff Sullivan
9:34
So I'd be inclined to allow this even if I wouldn't be wild about the possibility of other pitchers trying it for themselves. I'd have to hope it's sufficiently difficult to pull off that there wouldn't be a long line of impostors
With that in mind, maybe it's relevant that we still only have Walden and Capps
Zonk
9:35
When the music stops, what QO-eligible free agents will be without a $16 mil + chair? Can you comment on prospects for Desmond, Fowler, Kendrick in particular?
Jeff Sullivan
9:36
Right now I feel the least good about Fowler, in terms of finding a multi-year commitment. They're all in tough spots, obviously, but with, say, Desmond, I like that he's marketed himself as versatile and I think that gives him plenty of options. Kendrick, too, should find a home. But it's hard to see where Fowler fits that makes sense
Dinger
9:37
Is there any data that suggests prospects brought to the big league "too early" have different success/failure rates compared to their peers that are allowed to more fully develop in the minors?
Jeff Sullivan
9:37
I can't think of anything. Doesn't mean it's not out there. But if anything, the numbers *love* players who arrive in the majors at a young age
9:39
And it would be really difficult to take selection bias into account here. If you have one player who rises "too early" and another who's given more time to develop, then you have to think there was something about that first player that made his team confident he could survive. What do you do about that?
9:40
I'd love to see good research and maybe it's been done, but at this point it's probably still a case-by-case basis thing, and it's up to how organizations evaluate a young player's psychology and openness to failure.
Chuck
9:41
Which division do you see as being the most volatile this season?
Jeff Sullivan
9:41
We could end up in a situation where almost anyone could win the AL Central. Really, all three AL divisions are pretty open, but I think the Central has the worst best team, if that makes sense
Nelson
9:42
With full catcher equipement would you be comfortable cathing someone throwing 80?
Likewise, do you think MLB catchers ever so slightly get a bit afraid when catching a 100mph pitcher?
Jeff Sullivan
9:42
I could catch 80, no problem. I couldn't do it *well*, like in terms of blocking and throwing and stuff, but 80 doesn't scare me
9:43
As for MLB catchers, it's not like you just ignore when a guy throws 100, but catchers are so accustomed to catching 95-97 that 100 is barely anything extra. I think the greater concern is how well a pitcher can locate. I'd be more afraid of a wild 90 than a more-controlled 105
The Other Other Bullpen Weapon
9:43
wow, Ruben Sierra is a posterchild for player with terrible overall value that I was led to believe was a star growing up
Jeff Sullivan
9:43
And he was a star when *he* was growing up!
Then he grew up
Joe
9:44
What are your thoughts on the "file-and-trial" approach to arbitration? It seems like it causes more bad than good for the teams to me.
Jeff Sullivan
9:45
Going to be completely honest: I don't think about this. I haven't, ever, for more than a few minutes at a time. It's true that arbitration is unpleasant for everyone. It's also true that everyone understands that baseball is a business, and these things can be overcome. Most things will blow over and I don't think "lingering discontent" causes many real-world problems down the road
9:46
All things being equal, I'd want to avoid arbitration. I assume the cost of going to arbitration, though, is quite tiny, in the bigger picture
Tim
9:46
Giolito for Lucroy. Who says no?
Jeff Sullivan
9:46
Nationals
Guest
9:48
Congratulations on getting in to the BBW Association of America
Jeff Sullivan
9:48
Was this actually announced somewhere?
9:49
News to me. But yeah, they changed some of the rules for inclusion. At the winter meetings, Ryan Divish came up to me and asked, "hey, you want to be in the BBWAA?" and I was like "sure" and then that was basically it
T
9:50
Jeff! You rock. Are the Phillies so far from contention that shopping Nola would be good? Get maybe someone who could be Nola in 5 years plus mystery prizes?
Jeff Sullivan
9:50
I can't actually tell if this is serious
No offense
But Nola literally just debuted. The Phillies want *more* guys like this, not fewer
9:51
The Phillies are increasingly loaded with young talent and given the resources they have to spend, I think they're back to a relevant team in two years
If there's someone else out there who loves Nola even more than the Phillies, then that's one thing that you can try to exploit, but meanwhile he's important to them now and in the future
Sam
9:53
Will Smith has secretly become one of the better relievers in baseball. Do you think it won't be as much of a secret in a year?
Jeff Sullivan
9:54
Well, he'd need to start closing, or he'd need to get traded, because even though Smith is good, you don't generate a lot of attention throwing 7th and 8th innings on go-nowhere teams
I like how Smith just got a lot better last year against righties. He's going to be sought after come July
T
9:55
Please explain some of the ways the Indians will, as usual, fall short of their projections.
Jeff Sullivan
9:56
Lousy outfield for however long Bradley is out, under-performing bullpen
Brantley. Brantley.
And, you know, could have a pitcher injury! Can never rule out a critical pitcher injury!
LowryLegend
9:56
Jeff, I am new to the chat on here...what is generally discussed?
Jeff Sullivan
9:57
Baseball
Zonk
9:57
BTW, Sierra also made well over $30 mil post 1993, in return for that -5.8 WAR. Nice work if you can get it!
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