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Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 1/18/19
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padres 2019ish
9:54
Will anyone from fangraphs be at the SLOAN conference? A meetup would be swell
Jeff Sullivan
9:55
I can't answer for everyone, but our staff spring-training trip is only a few days after that, so the travel probably wouldn't work in any practical way
Ronnie
9:55
If someone swooped in with 3/120 for Machado to establish a new record AAV would that get it done at this point?
Jeff Sullivan
9:55
Not yet, but ask again in a month and a half
Dorsal Finley
9:56
What is the Mariners' most plausible pathway to hitting their supposed 2021 competition time frame?
Jeff Sullivan
9:57
Crawford develops into a good regular shortstop, they hit on most of the pitching prospects they acquired, and Kelenic continues his rapid development
9:58
I don't think it looks good for them, but it's not a *terrible* long-term picture like it used to be
Raysfaninminnesota
9:59
Even among Rays fans, Austin Meadows seems forgotten.  The prospect shine has worn off, but he's slated to be an Opening Day starter in the OF.  Should Rays fans be more excited for him on the big league club?
Jeff Sullivan
10:01
Meadows still counts as unproven -- his major-league cup of coffee was a mixed bag of performance. What's most exciting, besides the pedigree, is that upon Meadows' arrival in the organization, he immediately started hitting for more power. I think there's room here for cautious optimism, but I wouldn't yet get carried away. He's not as good as Pham yet, nor is he as good as Kiermaier
Brandon Lowe is going to be looking for playing time somewhere, so Meadows will be pushed
Ray
10:04
So, I know people have talked about to about how Verlander and Cole are both pending FAs for Houston to some degree...but I saw on JV's page that he apparently has a vesting option for next year if he finishes in the top 5 of the CY Young voting again. Is that legit?
Jeff Sullivan
The 2020 vesting option was waived as a condition of approving the trade from Detroit
MB, SC
10:04
How would you construct a Kluber trade that would be a win-win for both sides?
Jeff Sullivan
10:05
For one thing, I no longer think the Indians are in a position where they feel compelled to move a starter
But if a trade were to happen, I could see something built around Kluber and Verdugo, with more on the LA side
Benny Baseball
10:08
There have been multiple reports of the Red Sox trying to lock up Andrew Benintendi (aka "Mystery Player") 1) How likely do you think this report is? 2) How much would it take to lock Benny up?
Jeff Sullivan
10:10
I don't have any particular reason to doubt the report. Around this point in his service time, Odubel Herrera signed for 5/$30.5m, with two options. Ender Inciarte signed for 5/$30.5m, with one option. Kevin Kiermaier signed for 6/$53.5m, with one option
10:11
Now, Benintendi is better than Herrera, and he's more of a hitter than Inciarte and Kiermaier. The price would be higher. But it wouldn't blow those prices away
10:13
It is worth keeping in mind that Benintendi received a large draft bonus. Herrera, Inciarte, and Kiermaier were surprises, so maybe they were more willing to sign for a long-term guarantee. Benintendi is likely to drive a harder bargain
Kiermaier's Piercing Green Eyes
10:14
What happened to the George Steinbrenner and Mike Ilitch-style owners who recognized that they were one of the lucky 30 who actually own an MLB team and valued winning and glory over the ROI?
Jeff Sullivan
10:15
For one thing, such owners were already the exception. If you average, say, one or two of them in a 30-team league, it shouldn't be considered remarkable if you go through a stretch where there are zero
10:17
For another thing, success isn't as tied to money as it used to be. You can't guarantee a playoff appearance anymore with a gigantic payroll. Every team is smarter than they used to be, making it all the more difficult to stand out. The benefit of each additional dollar spent has been reduced
Luke
10:17
Are the Yankees better off adding 3 bullpen pieces for $30M/year or adding 1 Manny Machado/Bryce Harper for $30M/year?
Jeff Sullivan
10:18
The Yankees signed Ottavino and Britton for three years. Are Machado or Harper available for three years?
10:19
Here's the reality, too -- the Yankees, of course, could definitely afford Machado/Harper, but they don't *need* Machado/Harper, because they're already great. And come playoff time, the best pitchers become more valuable, while the best position players remain roughly as valuable as before
10:20
In the playoffs, the Yankees can lean on their bullpen as much as they want, but a great hitter is still only coming up four or five times a game
Nelson
10:22
Would a sports league work if owners were not allowed to make a profit (or loss) until they sold the team (kind of like owning a house). All revenue had to be put back into salaries. The owners, who are already extremely wealthy, would own teams for status only.
Jeff Sullivan
10:22
Probably not
10:23
I mean, look, I don't know
10:24
But across the major sports, we see a revenue split somewhere in the vicinity of 50/50. There are a few potential owners, certainly, who'd participate just for the status, but for the bulk of people wealthy enough to own a team in the first place, they'd just choose to invest in other places that yield a greater ROI
10:25
It's always about making more money. Almost always, anyway. That's just our nature
10:26
When I say "our," I'm referring to human beings. I do not consider myself a peer of North American billionaires
10:27
(although if any billionaires are out there looking for a friend who won't send you too many text messages because texting is obnoxious, hit me up)
Big Joe Mufferaw
10:27
I have a feeling that the Yankees will go all Damon/Texiera and come out of nowhere and sign Harper. Gardner is NOT going to be their everyday LFer. It's easy to slide Harper in LF, Hicks in CF, Judge in RF and Stanton as DH mostly and RF LF a few times a week.
Jeff Sullivan
10:28
It is a difficult feeling to shake. I feel similarly about the Dodgers
Mokajige
10:28
Since Hiura might be up this year, next year almost certainly, do you think Asdrubal Cabrera or Josh Harrison is a better fit at 2B for the Brewers?
Jeff Sullivan
10:29
They are potential fits. Marwin Gonzalez is a potential fit. Marwin and Cabrera might get the leg up for being shortstop-capable
Jeremiah
10:29
What is the reason for any team to not offer Bryce Harper 10-325 Million Dollars?
Jeff Sullivan
10:30
Because no other team is offering 10-325 million dollars, and all you really have to do is slightly exceed the otherwise highest bid on the table
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