JotCast | Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 1/19/18

Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 1/19/18

Jeff Sullivan

9:03

Hello friends

Welcome to Friday baseball chat

Although that's Friday baseball chat with an asterisk: there's a decent chance that in about half an hour I'm going to have to go give someone an emergency ride to a wedding

9:04

Not ideal! But here we are. I hope it works out

Bork

9:04

Hello, friend, and welcome back!

Jeff Sullivan

9:04

Hello friend

LudeBurger

9:04

Jeff is back!!!!

Jeff Sullivan

9:04

Kind of!

Jimmy

9:04

Any advice for someone about to propose?

Jeff Sullivan

9:04

As long as you know it's the right person just don't overthink it

9:05

Although at the same time do remember that you'll be repeating the story for the rest of your life

CamdenWarehouse

9:05

Congratulations, Jeff! I am the only one who feels like Jules saying "Say 'collusion' one more time" this winter?

Jeff Sullivan

9:06

It's of course a very complicated situation that's playing out. And there's a whole conversation to be had about whether it counts as collusion if teams are just uniform in the way they evaluate available players. Not an easy answer to that one but it's unquestionably where we are today

CJL

9:06

Astros still don't have even an average/reliable LHH reliever. Is it really that important to have one? Does Tony Watson make too much sense or Liriano back on a shorter deal?

Jeff Sullivan

9:06

Given that they literally just won the World Series, no, it's not a necessity, but they can and should do better than Liriano anyhow

With Watson, yeah, he works, and you don't have to think very hard

9:07

Have you ever read Nate Silver's book, "The Signal and the Noise"?

Jeff Sullivan

9:07

That's one of several books I haven't had to actually read because I end up consuming it indirectly through other content

Nelson

9:08

I know it seems like recency bias, but will we ever again see Yankees, Cubs, Dodgers or Bosox dwelling in the cellar for 4-5 years straight? Do they have advantages now that they didnt have when they had runs of being doormats in the past?

Jeff Sullivan

9:08

Hard to imagine any of the major markets being terrible for that long, but then, we have had the Phillies. And most importantly, "ever" is a long time, and god knows what the next CBAs are going to do about parity and revenue sharing

Tim

9:09

Rank my bold predictions for this season from most to least ridiculous:

1. David Price’s elbow stays intact and he finally pitches like the guy the Red Sox thought they were getting when they signed him — in fact, he has such a good year that he opts out of his contract after the season
2. Giancarlo Stanton suffers through an injury-plagued, disappointing debut season in New York, while Aaron Judge has a sophomore slump as the Yankees miss the postseason
3. This is finally the season Kevin Kiermaier doesn’t suffer a freak injury that puts him on the DL for two and a half months, he builds off the offensive progress he showed last year, Willy Adames comes up and challenges for AL Rookie of the Year like 2013 Wil Myers, and they lead the Rays to a Wild Card
4. The Cardinals reclaim the NL Central from the Cubs
5. Christian Yelich, J.T. Realmuto and Justin Bour are all traded before the end of the season, and the Marlins set a new modern MLB record with 121 losses

Jeff Sullivan

9:09

Please shorten this to like 50 words

Wes

9:10

What does Martin Perez need to do differently to become a #3 or better?

Jeff Sullivan

9:10

Miss a bat every now and then. He doesn't have the command to be so contact-reliant

Juan

9:10

As of today, when do you think the Padres window opens?

Jeff Sullivan

9:11

They'll be written up as a dark horse in 2019 but I think it's more like 2020

Sharp

9:11

Tony Watson is still on the market. Assuming regression in from a bad BABIP year and a maintenance of the peripherals from last year, he seems to be one of the best LOOGYs on the market. Are there really no playoff teams that need lefties?

Jeff Sullivan

9:11

He'll get a job, and he'll get a contract that looks familiar, given all the other reliever contracts

Brett W

9:12

How much is Lorenzo Cain going to get guaranteed this late in winter? Will fringe teams enter his market as a result of falling price?

Jeff Sullivan

9:12

That's the way it goes, right? Few teams interested at peak price, so the price tag drops, so more teams get involved, so the price tag goes up

I think Cain could have trouble getting his fourth year, but three years and an option at strong salaries ought still be reasonable

Bruce

9:13

Pujols has 105 more BB than Ks for his career. What chance does he have to keep it in the black until he retires?

Jeff Sullivan

9:13

He'll basically have to retire around the middle of 2019. Which, actually...

Sim

9:14

Unfortunately I am a Mets fan. Please tell me what we need to happen to make the playoffs this year. If our pitching staff stays healthy is that enough?

Jeff Sullivan

9:14

Healthy Syndergaard, Conforto comes back around May 1 showing few ill effects from surgery. Obviously there's more to it than that, but when you have Syndergaard slotted in at No. 1 once or twice every week, it makes an enormous difference. Mets could definitely grab a wild card

LarryA

9:15

It surprised me that the Mariners own pro sports longest active non-playoff streak, but its not really that long ago when you consider that Jaromir Jagr already had 1079 pts the last time the mariners made the postseason, and hes still playing.

Jeff Sullivan

9:16

The last time the Mariners made the playoffs, Kevin Maitan couldn't talk

Daniel Castro

9:16

I'm a toolsy infielder with a thunderous bat. Why do your coworkers hate me so?

Jeff Sullivan

9:16

Ask them

IsBrittonInYet

9:16

How should the Jays front office spend their rumored remaining 15 million? Is SP or OF more pressing?