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Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 1/19/18
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Jeff Sullivan
9:53
I don't think Garcia is very good, and he has just two years left. Just go sign Dyson or Cain or something
Ham Porter
9:53
Which team is going to see the biggest year-over-year gain in Wins?
Jeff Sullivan
9:53
Giants, almost certainly
Oddball Herrera
9:54
"whether it counts as collusion if teams are just uniform in the way they evaluate available players"  Hold on, so teams making logical decisions is evidence of collusion?  Seems like the principle of collusion is preventing anti-competitive behavior (i.e. price fixing).  This here is just the market being more rational.
Jeff Sullivan
9:54
I don't know nearly enough to be able to speak to this with authority. I just know some about what's being discussed. It's only natural that teams would get to this point; it's only natural that the players wouldn't be thrilled by the development
Carl
9:54
More and more, I think the Pirates have a shot at contention this year, assuming Polanco and Marte play up to snuff.  Am I nuts?
Jeff Sullivan
9:55
I don't think you're nuts. Honestly, I think they're still okay. I don't think they're *good*, but if, say, Tyler Glasnow gains three or four points on his strike rate, that's a heck of a starting point
9:56
The Pirates strike me as being similar to the Rays. In a situation where they keep playing for .500. That's not good but that's also not bad when you only need about 86-88 wins to make the playoffs
Dan Duquette
9:56
What pitchers should I target this offseason? Is there any hope for the Orioles to be competitive?
Jeff Sullivan
9:56
Slim hope. Get, I don't know, Trevor Cahill? And maybe go after Luis Perdomo or something
Well-Beered Englishman
9:56
So what's the emergency wedding story?
Jeff Sullivan
9:57
Good news is, I don't have to give the ride after all!
But my fiancee does occasional wedding photography on the side and she nearly missed a shuttle connection. Which would've required that I go get her and drive her up to Mt Hood
Magic 8 Ball
9:59
Suppose Dodgers want to add Yu and need to clear $30M of Kemp's salary. Which prospect(s) would the Dodgers have to add to Kemp in a trade package?
Jeff Sullivan
10:00
Firstly, the more I think about it, the hell with the luxury tax. The Dodgers can afford an overage. It's not that big a deal
But, whatever, let's play along with the hypothetical
10:01
Yusniel Diaz should get it done
Or, if not him, someone much like him
@Ryan0Deal
10:02
Do you ever forget about players who broke out at this point in the offseason? I just remembered that Chris Taylor is good now
Jeff Sullivan
10:02
For me, I haven't forgotten the breakouts, but after basically avoiding baseball and the internet for the better part of three weeks, I've forgotten some semi-major transactions
10:03
Like, I had to remind myself where Bryan Mitchell was
And the whole Matt Kemp/etc Dodgers/Braves move had been erased from my consciousness
TJ
10:05
Any chance the Yankees give up a top 5 prospect just to get rid of the Ellsbury contract? How likely is a trade at this point?
Jeff Sullivan
10:06
Ellsbury is due almost another $70 million. He's not a bad player yet, but he's no longer a particularly good one, and he's in his mid-30s. Probably not a starter anymore. So, yeah, the bulk of that deal is underwater, and it would require a good prospect coming along for another team to pick it up. I keep expecting the Phillies or White Sox to get involved
10:07
From the Yankees' perspective, they're really mostly just worried about Ellsbury's cost in 2018. Once they re-set their penalties, then, whatever, they can afford the world. I'm sure that's the current stumbling block
GK
10:09
What do you think of Steamer's projection for Margot? A bit pessimistic?
Jeff Sullivan
10:09
I don't think it's unreasonable to project a guy with a 90 wRC+ for an 89 wRC+
But I do prefer it when we have our 50/50 blend of Steamer and ZiPS. I do find that Steamer can be conservative
gump
10:11
Is it easier to convince an owner to take a 20MM/year bad contract packaged with a prospect, or to spend an additional 20MM/year on your minor league development (more coaches, better pay, better meals, who knows)? Is it just that the bad contract ends, and teams wouldn't be able to just stop spending that development money?
Jeff Sullivan
10:11
The former, because it's just simpler to execute
And it doesn't break with precedent, so all the other owners wouldn't get mad at you
10:12
Would make all the sense in the world for some club to just pour a bunch more resources into, say, paying the minor leaguers. It hasn't happened because it would piss the other owners off. I don't think that's...a...very good reason
But also, the owners are greedy
R
10:12
Watson, for his career, is only .028 points of woba better vs lefties than righties. Why the hype?
Jeff Sullivan
10:13
Because that doesn't mean he's been bad against lefties. It means he's been good against both lefties and righties
Kristen
10:14
If Hamels and Beltre stay healthy and play well the 1st-half of the season, what kind of prospects could they fetch the Rangers at the deadline?  Hamels won't net a Clint Frazier, but he should bring back something decent, right?
Jeff Sullivan
10:15
The Beltre one could be complicated -- every team would love to get his talent and leadership, but you might also have Machado and Donaldson also available as rentals at the same position
10:16
As for Hamels, it would depend on just how good he looks. He didn't have a very good 2017, and he'd be due another $30 million or so through the end of 2019. If he looks like a No. 1 or No. 2 again, I think he'd get a three-player package headlined by one 51-100 prospect
Drew
10:16
If you were the Yankees would you trade David Robertson to free payroll space for Yu Darvish?
Jeff Sullivan
10:17
Just move Ellsbury. Just pay to move Ellsbury
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