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Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 1/19/18
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Nathan Procek
10:40
What do you think the Brewers could get for Travis Shaw?
Jeff Sullivan
10:40
Not a ton. He's serviceable, but he had a rough, regression-filled second half, and he occupies a deep league-wide position
10:41
Maybe they could get a young pitcher or two from the Braves
Kristen
10:41
Who are some legit bounce-back players this year?  Kinda thinking/hoping Odor and M. Moore are better than they showed last season.
Jeff Sullivan
10:42
There's almost no way that Odor sucks that bad again
I mean, that was unbelievable
10:44
Running a few numbers right now...
10:47
Okay! I've looked at 2017 WAR and then looked at projected 2018 WAR by Steamer
The top five projected improvements, according to one projection system: Syndergaard, Machado, Cabrera, Odor, Tulowitzki
The next five: Franco, Bird, Heaney, Calhoun, Glasnow
Obviously, some of these are due to playing time or injury, but there you go
10:48
At the other end, the top five projected declines: Judge, Blackmon, Nelson, Altuve, Pham
Altuve is always going to give projection systems trouble, and this will be more significant when we fold ZiPS in as well
Drew
10:49
With Lorenzo Cain and Jarrod Dyson still on the open market, should the Orioles pursue one and TRY to move Adam Jones over to RF?
Jeff Sullivan
10:51
Dyson at a minimum would be a good idea, if only as a reserve to help the athleticism and the pitching staff. Cain doesn't fit so well with the idea that things will get a lot worse a year from now, but it all depends on where his market is. If he's affordable, he will probably prefer San Francisco
Dicky Henderson
10:52
what's josh naylor's realistic ceiling? will he ever be even serviceable?
Jeff Sullivan
10:52
Naylor is a first baseman with a career minor-league OPS of .738. His greatest strength at the moment is his age, and that only gets worse every day
Slew
10:53
I can't shake the feeling that the Indians renting Machado makes sense for them. Am I crazy?
Jeff Sullivan
Daron
10:53
Congrats! From what I can tell according to the Fangraphs WAR leader board there were only 64 position players who had 3.3 WAR or greater in 2017 (an average of just over two per team). Five of those position players were Miami Marlins. Three have been traded already with 1-2 more possible. Is this unprecedented? Or to put another way, where does this rank in terms of all-time Marlins fire sales?
Jeff Sullivan
10:54
What the Marlins are doing is kind of similar to what the White Sox have done. Most teams underachieve because they don't have enough great players. The Marlins and White Sox have had the core, but they never could assemble a supporting staff. So then the rebuilds get jolted forward because it's great talent, not mediocre talent, going out the door
Grover
10:55
Will anyone pick up Andre Ethier?
Jeff Sullivan
10:55
Not with any urgency
Cam
10:55
Have analytics made baseball less interesting? In terms of everyone having a more or less objective value, fewer lopsided trades, etc.?
Jeff Sullivan
10:56
In certain ways, yes, absolutely. In certain other ways, no, because look how much we get to play with, even in the public sphere. Look how much more we might get to do in terms of player development. Look at how we can examine how teams are forever trying to stay one step ahead of an increasingly-informed competitive landscape
CT
10:57
Let's hear your engagement story
Jeff Sullivan
10:57
In short, proposed at the base of Mt Fitz Roy on a blue-bird day, and I was so nervous I nearly dragged the two of us down into a frigid glacial lake
Rollie's Mustache
11:00
It appears like the Jays are focusing on raising the team's floor rather than its ceiling. Solarte, Diaz, Grandy is solid depth and should help keep positions afloat if injuries hit. But don't they still need a legit impact player to have a shot at the 2WC?
Jeff Sullivan
11:01
They probably figure Donaldson, Stroman, or Sanchez could be those impact players. And, you know, Smoak, if he keeps up what he did. The Jays are coming off a year where they had some black holes, and there's nothing wrong with trying to plug them
Ben
11:02
According to Baseball Prospectus, King Felix has been worth 76 WARP (more than Phil Niekro, Bob Gibson, Tom Glavine, Jim Palmer, and Roy Halladay), but both Fangraphs and Baseball-Reference agree he is at about 52 WAR. Do you know why there is such a huge discrepancy? Does BP just think he has been received by terrible pitch framers?
Jeff Sullivan
11:02
I have to think framing is a huge part of it. Otherwise, not sure. I'd like to hear their side talk about it
Kingpin
11:02
Will MadBum fully return to his form from prior to the dirt bike injury?
Jeff Sullivan
11:03
All the stuff was there upon his return. I'm not terribly concerned
Devil Ray Jay Johnson
11:03
Which 1B do the Rays end up signing for peanuts?
Jeff Sullivan
11:04
In all sincerity they have so many fungible infielder options they might just stick with Brad Miller
ATCQ
11:04
Is it possible that between the Ozuna trade and the Piscotty trade, the Cardinals both improved their team AND their farm?
Jeff Sullivan
11:04
30-40% yes!
tommy lasagna, sr.
11:05
what do you think of putting bellinger in lf and having either barnes or grandal at 1b?
Jeff Sullivan
11:05
I don't think there's much of a point
Nice to have the option, but that shouldn't be any kind of Plan A
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