Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 1/20/17
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Jeff Sullivan
9:04
Hello friends
Welcome to Friday baseball chat
Bork
9:04
Hello, friend!
Jeff Sullivan
9:04
Hello friend
WannabeBork
9:04
Sup Bro
Jeff Sullivan
9:04
Sup friend
EbenezerBatflip
9:05
Who will have more strikeouts in 2017, Sale or Price?
Jeff Sullivan
9:05
Obviously, this is almost too close to call, but Sale has touched the higher K% peak before, and now he's going to get a lot more help from his catchers than he just had. So I give Sale the slight edge
CubbieBlues
9:06
Hi Jeff, thanks for chatting. What does the research suggest is the expected value of a top ten draft pick? If a team ends up with a relief pitcher or 4th outfielder, is the team disappointed that he isn’t a star or relieved that he didn’t bust?
Jeff Sullivan
9:07
So the research is a little scattered because one or two awesome draft picks can really skew things, but a safe way to think of it is probably like this: a top-5 pick produces, on average, about 10 WAR during team-control years, and a 6-through-10 pick is more like 5 WAR
9:08
At least, I think that's about accurate. The error bars are enormous. If you have a top-five pick, I think you'd be dissatisfied with a reserve or a reliever. Come picks 9 or 10, then you'd be more forgiving. Things tend to tail off pretty quickly
ConfusedConfucious
9:09
How many players younger than 30 do you believe have a greater than 50% chance of making the HoF? Besides Trout, of course.
Jeff Sullivan
9:10
Kershaw's easy. That's one
9:11
I don't know how I feel about Bumgarner but maybe he's at 50%? He'll get big postseason credit, eventually
Let's see...Felix isn't younger than 30 anymore, and neither is Price
9:12
I think Posey has a reasonable shot
I'll stop there. Way too much still to know about too many other guys
JimLindeman15
9:13
Jeff, guess who said the following? "I think everybody in this room would be completely shocked and surprised to know how many times we had the green light in the last several years, more often than not, I'll tell you that." It's Mike Matheny. Your thoughts?
Jeff Sullivan
9:14
I guess that tells you the true significance of having the green light, because over the past three years, only the Orioles have stolen fewer bases than the Cardinals have
9:15
This feels an awful lot like an early spring-training narrative. One of the common ones is a given team saying it's going to steal a lot more often. I'll believe it when I see it
Fowler will chip in, of course. But the Cardinals still aren't going to run very much. They just don't have the personnel of, say, the Brewers
Jack
9:15
With the Angels reportedly signing Luis Valbuena how does their infield shake out? Maybe one of Cron, Escobar, or Pennington traded?
Jeff Sullivan
9:16
There's apparently a good deal of smoke surrounding a would-be Cron trade, but since I don't see the Angels moving a young player like that, I think you have Valbuena start out as a multi-position reserve. And then they have a little extra flexibility now in case one of Escobar or Espinosa doesn't hit
9:17
Pennington is no one's idea of a quality backup, and this way they get to play Jefry Marte more regularly in the minors, which I guess is something the Angels prioritize
Worth noting, for now, that Pujols might still miss opening day
Erik
9:17
What probably bad team is just a few lucky breaks away from hanging around the wild card race for a while?
Jeff Sullivan
9:18
Depends on your definition of "a few." Could be almost all of them. Remember how last year's Phillies were over .500 for like a month and a half, even though they sucked?
9:19
I think the Diamondbacks aren't very good, but they'll have a month or two where all the young starters are clicking at the same time. So there will be stretches where they look absolutely fearsome
dead fred
9:19
please start for god's sake; if it weren't for this chat, I'd welcome the rapture
Jeff Sullivan
9:19
This is a lot of pressure
EbenezerBatflip
9:19
The narrative for both Sale and Price is that they are expected to have a better year in 2017 than they had in 2016. Which one will have the better year?
Jeff Sullivan
9:20
Sale is coming off a year spent with absolutely terrible defensive catchers, so I think he'll bounce back the best because of that alone
Trey Mancini
9:20
What do I gotta do to get some respect?
Jeff Sullivan
9:20
Slug better than .427 in Triple-A
Earl G
9:21
If still prospect eligible, about where would Michael Conforto fit on a top 100? (Trying to gauge his value)
Jeff Sullivan
9:21
Maybe the 40-50 range? He's coming up on his 24th birthday but almost everyone still believes he's going to hit
Weezy
9:23
If you didn't write about baseball professionally (or considering, perhaps), which would you recommend to watch the Eclipse in August: Madras or Salem-Kaizer Volcanoes baseball?
Jeff Sullivan
9:24
So, I don't quite get the idea of a festival -- you don't need to be around other people in order to look up and observe that the world is dark when it's day time
Therefore, I'd say if you're intent on going to one of those two places, go to whichever one is easier for you to reach. Or go to neither one and just watch the eclipse yourself
9:25
I recognize that I'm spoiled, already living in or around an ideal viewing band. After talking to Ben Lindbergh the other day I'm thinking about going to that baseball game
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