Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 1/22/16
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Jeff Sullivan
9:00
Hello friends
9:01
Welcome to baseball chat
Uncharacteristically on time this week!
Don't get used to it
Guest
9:01
You sell your house to bet on baseball: which team do you bet on to win the AL pennant?
Jeff Sullivan
9:01
Red Sox
9:02
and the joke's on the other guy, because I don't own a house
I don't think the Red Sox are that far ahead of the other top AL contenders, but I think they have the resources to upgrade midseason if they need to
I also quite like the Jays and the Astros
Chad
9:02
Daniel Norris or Vincent Velasquez? This year and future
Jeff Sullivan
9:02
I still like Norris
NatsFan
9:03
If the Nats fail again on Cespedes should we begin to think they have might have a bad rep with free agents?
Jeff Sullivan
9:03
We've already seen a handful of players turn them down. It seems pretty clear they're paying a price for what happened last season.
9:04
Now, that's the sort of thing that blows over quick if you win 90 or 95 games in 2016. Nothing about this has to be permanent, but last year's Nats were miserable, and there are indications other players are wary of that keeping up
I'd still be awful surprised to see Cespedes turn down a 5-year guarantee for a 3-year guarantee but we don't know enough details
_David_
9:04
Percentage chance Leonys Martin out WARs Justin Upton over the next 6 years?
Jeff Sullivan
9:05
10-20%? if Martin doesn't hit, he's going to have trouble getting that much playing time, and his defense isn't going to improve. Upton, at least, we know is going to slug
striker
9:07
What's Rick Hahn's plan B if he loses out on Cespedes?
Jeff Sullivan
9:07
To this point I don't even know how involved they are on Cespedes
but they could use Kendrick or they could use Desmond
and those guys are going to sign somewhere
9:09
Desmond fits easier, of course. As I think about it, Kendrick maybe not
NutButters
9:10
I proposed last chat that the Yankees try to sign Fister on a 1-year deal to replace Warren. Seeing talk of this on MLBTR now, is there really anyone else looking to gamble 2 years on him and his potentially 80s fastball?
Jeff Sullivan
9:11
Countless teams would be interested in Fister for one year, so it makes sense eventually someone would go to two years to take the lead. As an alternative, someone might offer two, with an opt-out after one
Opt-outs don't make analysis easier, but as long as they're flying around, players might as well try to get as many of them as possible
Big Joe Mufferaw
9:12
Jeffrey, Over/under for yanks 3 headed monster for Ks is 310.5.. What do you think?
Jeff Sullivan
9:12
Last year they had 347, but Chapman figures to probably get suspended. Given that and regression, I'll take the under
Ryan
9:14
What is the biggest weakness the Cubs have?
Jeff Sullivan
9:14
There's a chance it could be outfield defense if Heyward doesn't have the smoothest transition to center (and if they don't make another move)
failing that, god, I don't know
Will Graham
9:15
Who is having the best offseason in filling their vast needs and why is it the Tigers
Jeff Sullivan
9:15
Could just as easily be the Cubs
But if it's the Tigers, it's because they were willing to spend on all their needs, future be damned
Archie
9:16
ZIPs seems to think Dilson Herrera will see significant playing time this season. Where do you see him playing?
Jeff Sullivan
9:16
ZiPS and this guy disagree
CamdenWarehouse
9:18
Hi Jeff. What's the prognosis for Mike Zunino? Is he ever going to be a first division regular?
Jeff Sullivan
9:19
It's going to be fascinating to look at Zunino's numbers this season, because he's one of the guys who's worked to overhaul his whole swing the last few months. He should spend the bulk of 2016 in the minors, and because of his lousy track record skepticism is warranted, but the physical skills are in there. We know he has the defense, and we know he has the power. If the coaches manage to unlock something that gives him an extra split-second for each pitch, he could look like a real starter in a year
R2D2
9:20
Boston won 78 games in 2015. Now imagine you are the Red Sox manager last year and you are responsible for which players play and what positions they play. How many wins do you estimate you could add to that 78 win total if you are free to pick the most efficient lineups and defensive alignments possible? In other words, you don’t need to cater to player egos or fan expectations. All you want to do is maximize win total.
Jeff Sullivan
9:20
I don't know, maybe another one or two, but I feel like I would've kept trying to find spots for Ramirez and Sandoval too because I have projections and track records in my head
Brett W
9:21
I am somewhat dubious that Lucroy had such a precipitous framing decline. My guess is part performance loss, part umpire awareness, and also the rest of the league raising the average.
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