Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 1/22/16
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Jeff Sullivan
10:54
Just about the perfect situation for him
Jed
10:54
Have you ever thought about working out of a coworking space?
Jeff Sullivan
10:55
I've thought about it, but then I've also tried working in coffeeshops and it turns out it is impossible for me to concentrate on anything through the slightest of background noise
Zonk
10:55
Everyone thinks Schwarber is a DH, but I think he's a good athlete who with some training is going to surprise people in LF. No Gold Gloves in his future, but good arm, he isn't Adam Dunn 2.0 either. What's your take?
Jeff Sullivan
10:55
People literally said all that about Adam Dunn
"He was a quarterback, you know"
10:56
I definitely think Schwarber can be playable. Few defensive disasters with players so young. But honestly you can just look at him and know he won't be a defensive plus. The Cubs should be happy if he's a -5 left fielder for a few years
Bill
10:56
At 5/100, what teams should NOT be in on Cespedes?
Jeff Sullivan
10:56
Probably a whole lot of them, if the concerns about him are valid
Raindog
10:57
Austin Jackson put up 2.3 WAR last year, why do I keep seeing smart people say he's coming off a bad year?
Jeff Sullivan
10:57
He didn't hit
jtt
10:57
What do you think it is like to negotiate against Scott Boras? Mike Illitch might not know that much about baseball but he is a business man worth 5 billion dollars, he probably isn't awful at negotiation
Jeff Sullivan
10:57
The Boras pitch is "hey, you're going to die soon, and you want to win, so you need this player." It's hard to argue successfully against that.
Andrew
10:58
Is it just me, or are there more free agents than usual making decisions based on favorite team? Zobrist, Heyward, and now maybe Cespedes are choosing to leave money on the table for a better team environment.
Jeff Sullivan
10:58
I don't think players are leaving *that* much money on the table. The Cespedes situation would be interesting because his could be the biggest gap turned down
mattbalasis
10:59
Who is the odd man out of AZ, Aaron Hill, Chris Owings or Brandon Drury?
Jeff Sullivan
10:59
Drury if they can't make Hill go away
Big Joe Mufferaw
10:59
Are people forgetting that Cespedes had a .296 OBP over 2 full seasons in 2013-14? I don't get why he should get 100 mil
Jeff Sullivan
11:00
He has other skills and he had a huge 2015. But, you know, his 2012 looked a lot like his 2015. This is one of those things where a year from now we could look at him and wonder why everyone was freaking out about his value
Sam
11:00
Would Dillon Tate and Mike Matuella be a fair trade for Lucroy? I don't know if that's still too high an expectation. I'm sad because I feel like Fangraphs lowers Luc's value every day :(
Jeff Sullivan
11:00
Tate, Matuella, and a third piece should be sufficient
Bill
11:00
Have you seen any player projections that you have a gut feeling are going to be way off? If so, who?
Jeff Sullivan
11:01
Sure. Just for example, Steamer gives Brandon Crawford 2.3 WAR and a 94 wRC+. I don't buy that one bit
Jack
11:01
Do the Mets even need Cespedes? He really shouldn't play CF and Conforto and Granderson are pretty fine options in the corners.
Jeff Sullivan
11:02
No, they don't need him, but if they can have him for a three-year guarantee with a one-year opt-out, that's hard to turn down
Get a motivated Cespedes in 2016 and make another run for it
Kyle Seager
11:03
If I play like this for 25 more years I'm probably in the HOF
Jeff Sullivan
11:03
One day at a time
Carl
11:03
Let's say the Mariners are in contention come the deadline and are wanting to make a move. Who/what (as specific or vague as you'd like) do you think they will be targeting?
Jeff Sullivan
11:04
Probably a reliever and a better 1B partner for Lind
Devin
11:05
How has Alex Wood's star dimmed so much in a year? He's still young, and it doesn't feel like people are really talking about him, or thinking he has the upside to be more than the projected 1.5 win pitcher
Jeff Sullivan
11:05
Over 2 years, he's lost a ton of strikeouts, and over 3 years, he's lost two miles off his fastball. There's reason for concern here
On the other hand, two years ago he got his strikeouts despite a fastball that looked a lot like the 2015 version. So people are probably also underestimating his bounceback potential
Zonk
11:05
Maybe Cespedes's agents are just trying to get the Nats to add an opt-out. If they do, they likely get it done. Agree?
Jeff Sullivan
11:06
I bet the Nats are already offering an opt-out
Pinstripe Wizard
11:06
Which MLB team is most like the San Antonio Spurs?
Jeff Sullivan
11:06
I don't know much about basketball but it's the Cardinals
Zorak
11:06
If everybody is so afraid of Cespedes' motivation, why doesn't somebody offer him a Maeda type deal? Low base salary with crazy incentive bonuses.
Jeff Sullivan
11:06
He can still do better than that
Ptite Graine Cameron
11:07
I don't get the sox hype... They were pegged as favorites last year, and now Ortiz is 40, Pedroia is not getting any better, Hanley and Pablo have not shown any sign of life, their SPing is thin and People are simply banking that Betts and Boggarts continue to improve (improvement is not linear)
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