Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 1/29/16
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Jeff Sullivan
9:06
Hello friends
Welcome to baseball chat
Joe G
9:06
Does it make sense for ChiSox to sign Desmond and play him at SS until Anderson is ready? Afterward moving him to OF?
Jeff Sullivan
9:07
White Sox are a definite fit to me. Them and the Diamondbacks are both obvious. And the White Sox might not even need to worry about moving Desmond for Anderson -- could just end up a short-term arrangement
Bork
9:07
Since the Rockies FO is obviously reading FG for advice. What should their next move be? To get a new FO?
Jeff Sullivan
9:07
I'm not convinced the FO is the problem. From what I've heard, what I've read, and from my interactions, the group is sharp enough. They're just dealing with a unique situation and ownership that hasn't made choosing a direction very easy
9:09
There's an awful lot coming on the farm -- the Rockies should have a very interesting next couple of years. Not competitive, yet, and they should continue moving players off the roster for youth, but there is some progress taking place
a eskpert
9:09
If the DH comes to the NL, could it at least be allowed to replace any position?
Jeff Sullivan
9:09
Sure, and then every team would just choose pitcher
greg
9:09
You mentioned in your Marlins Park piece that the park reduces strikeouts. How does a ballpark have an effect on strikeouts?
Jeff Sullivan
9:10
I actually wrote about how Comerica Park seems to have an effect on strikeouts last week. For some ballparks, like PNC, they reduce strikeouts and walks because pitchers are just more incentivized to pitch to contact. But most of the time, it's just a matter of visibility. Batters either see the ball particularly well or particularly poorly, given time of day and batter's-eye concerns
Steve
9:12
How long will the Orioles give Jimmy Paredes at bats before they realize last year's early season surge was the fluke and not the second half sub-replacement level?
Jeff Sullivan
9:12
I don't think he's going to end up playing very much. They'll find some cheap outfielder to plug in and Paredes will be left to the bench if he's not dropped entirely
Otto
9:12
Do you play disc golf?
Jeff Sullivan
9:13
I once played disc golf
Aaron
9:15
Wow, Fox
Just wow
Jeff Sullivan
9:15
This could be about anything
Aaron
9:16
Those leaked We Are Family Pirates Jerseys could be pretttty sweeeet. What throwback would you want to see the most for any team?
Jeff Sullivan
9:16
Off the top of my head, throwback Padres
v-2 schneider
9:17
Is there such a thing as an untouchable prospect on any team?
Jeff Sullivan
9:18
No -- every player has a price, even if it's not explicit, and while there are some guys in the majors so valuable you can't imagine a realistic exchange, no one in the minors is quite at that level because they're totally unproven
9:19
You won't really see trades happen, though. Kris Bryant wasn't going to be traded. Bryce Harper wasn't going to be traded. Mike Trout wasn't going to be traded.
kris
9:20
How long until we see the LeBron James 2 year deal, with an opt out after the first year? Why wouldn't Bryce just go wherever he has the best chance to go win a championship while getting $40MM+ every year?
Jeff Sullivan
9:20
He's going to get a really interestingly structured contract because just straight-up the price is going to drive almost everyone out of the market. So teams are going to try to find ways to lower the money by introducing opt-outs and stuff out the wazoo
9:21
Heyward got two opt-outs. What's Harper going to get? Four?
Gary
9:21
Have you guys ever thought of exposing some of your data and projections via some kind of API? Manually exporting stuff all the time can be a hassle, and it’s something I’d happily pay for.
Jeff Sullivan
9:21
That seems like an Appelman question!
Norrin Radd
9:23
Is there any other ballparks that you think could use some fence modifications?
Jeff Sullivan
9:24
PNC and AT&T could probably stand to be a little more hitter-friendly, and places like GABP and Miller could probably stand to be a little more pitcher-friendly. But then I don't think every ballpark needs to take steps toward neutrality if the teams don't care about it -- and the Giants and Pirates are probably quite pleased with their environments
9:25
Like, I don't think Marlins Park *needed* to move the fences in. It's just something they chose to do. Maybe it'll help develop some hitters, but realistically even with shallower fences, you just won't see that many balls flying out to straightaway center
9:26
The triangle in Fenway is weird but people would revolt if they tried to modify that because once something is old enough you can't touch it for some reason
QMan
9:27
Jeff, how would you rate the current list of top 100's vs other years? Shallow, young/old?
Jeff Sullivan
9:28
Just a guess here, but I think it's a little bit shallow. However, in large part that would be because of all the prospect graduations last season. So the remaining top 100 has lost a lot from the top, but the young-player population in general is outstanding
byron orpheus
9:28
do you take the over or under on seeing MLB expansion teams by 2030?
Jeff Sullivan
9:28
I think they'll expand to two places before that
The Dude of NY
9:29
Did you get a chance to see the new KATOH Top 100 list today? Kevin Padlo, the "throw in" prospect the Rays got, is ranked 37th. Yikes.
Jeff Sullivan
9:29
Prospects aren't really my game, but KATOH isn't alone. Jeff Zimmerman loves Padlo, and so do the folks at NEIFI. Padlo is a long ways away, but he's a real interesting asset and probably more valuable than Marquez, who is getting more attention
9:30
Just a strange trade for the Rockies to make
Wallace
9:30
Jeff, did you see any of the recent work on projection accuracy? What do you think it says that Marcel is close to/better than the big-name systems?
Jeff Sullivan
9:31
Marcel does the most important thing -- it examines the recent track record. Once you do that, any and all other progress is going to be incremental. Just pulling numbers out of my ass, if Marcel does 70% of the job, then all the more *advanced* systems are fighting over the difference between 70-75%
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