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Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 1/4/19
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Jeff Sullivan
9:02
Hello friends
Welcome to Friday baseball chat
I don't know where Harper or Machado are going to sign
I don't know when Harper or Machado are going to sign
stever20
9:04
So with the news from Jim Bowden that the Nats have increased their offer to Bryce Harper- do you think they are now the favorites to sign him?
Jeff Sullivan
9:04
Let us first consider whether or not that report is accurate or credible
9:05
That being considered, I'm having trouble picking between the Nationals and the Dodgers. The Nationals would be the easy pick; the Dodgers would be the obvious other candidate
Bobby Cox
9:06
What should the Braves do about their RF hole at this point?
Jeff Sullivan
9:07
I think someone like Derek Fisher would make for an interesting buy-low, but they could conceivably do that *and* reunite with Nick Markakis since I can't imagine his market is all that strong
9:08
The Padres also have an outfielder or two to move, if you feel like trading a young hard-throwing pitcher
Look Dude
9:08
Do you think Kimbrel going back to Atlanta is inevitable?
Jeff Sullivan
9:09
Feeling increasingly inevitable he just returns to Boston
Jack
9:09
Could the Yankees have gotten Tulo to agree to join them without assuring him that either they’re not going to sign Machado, or that if they do, they’re going to trade Andujar?
Jeff Sullivan
9:09
Well, they could also move Andujar to first base, since he's a dreadful defender at third
9:10
But -- and I don't mean to be so cold about this -- Tulo is costing the Yankees the league minimum, and he's a stopgap. The Yankees could've said whatever they wanted to convince him to sign up, but if something better comes along, Tulo's presence isn't much of a hurdle if they think he's getting in the way
9:11
Tulo has apparently wanted to play for the Yankees, and at present, the Yankees are missing a shortstop for three or four months. That's why we are where we are
Sum
9:12
it sounds like the contracts for Harper and Machado will be in the region of 10 years, taking both players to their mid-30s. lots of teams rest players via the DH slot once they age a bit and become less valuable defensively (e.g., JDMartinez; and both Harper and Machado have not-insubstantial injury histories already). does the American League have a structural advantage - or does the NL have a structural disincentive - to sign premium FAs to super-long-term deals because of the flexibility offered by the ability to slot them in at DH? has this played out, or do we see NL teams ignoring/discounting this difference and just signing the Matt Hollidays into their 30s anyway? thanks!
Jeff Sullivan
9:13
I don't have time during this live chat to analyze the historical distribution of mega-deals, and those numbers would be biased somewhat anyway by NYY/BOS always being in the American League. That being said, I think there are three things to keep in mind:
9:14
1) Executives often aren't thinking too hard about such considerations that will only come into play so far down the line
2) Still, it is a clear factor that would favor the AL by at least a little bit
9:15
3) But at this point, the universal DH is all but an inevitability. Might even show up in the next CBA
Put it all together and I don't think this is the factor that will determine which league the players go to
Look Dude
9:17
Griffey was one of the greatest hitters ever.  After around 10 years, he started heading downhill though - injuries, age.  Pujols had a similar path, 10 dominant years and the magic started wearing off.  Trout is going into his 9th season ... 8th full I guess.  When he becomes a free agent and signs that huge contract, do you think he'll decline in the same way that Griffey and Pujols did?
Jeff Sullivan
9:19
I believe Griffey and Pujols have had steeper aging curves than usual for Hall-of-Fame players. Any number of things *could* happen to Trout, and it could all change on any given play, but, you know, Miguel Cabrera remained a dominant hitter through 33, and he's still good when he's healthy. If Trout keeps himself in premium shape, you'd think his decline would be graceful
Ross
9:20
Who wins the NL Central in 2019?
Jeff Sullivan
9:20
Right now I think I slightly favor the Cardinals, but I also think the Brewers have more that they're going to do this offseason
Josh
9:21
Of all the stats, which one is your favorite go-to stat?
Jeff Sullivan
9:21
wRC+ for hitters, K-BB% for pitchers. If I only had one for each
Roger
9:23
If the White Sox miss out on Macharper do you think they backtrack on their previous statements and end up trading Jose Abreu? Feel like if the Sox traded Abreu to Tampa for Matt Duffy it would round out both teams’ rosters a lot better
Jeff Sullivan
9:24
It's not out of the question, but I think the White Sox still like Abreu quite a bit. And I'm not certain the Rays would go for that for a contract-year player
Syndergaardians of the Galaxy
9:24
The Astros have been particularly good at making already good pitchers even better. Lately we've heard that the Astros are interested in Seth Lugo, who has quietly been one of the better pitchers on the Mets the last three seasons. Any idea what it is about the way that Lugo pitches that the Astros are going to change to make him even better?
Jeff Sullivan
9:25
Well, let's not get too far ahead of ourselves. Nothing has happened yet, and Lugo is coming off a 79 FIP-. Maybe the Astros just want someone coming off a 79 FIP-
9:26
Bear in mind that Lugo's best pitch is his curve, and his curve usage already just shot up from 17% to 32%
9:29
Maybe the Astros would want him to throw even *more* curves. Maybe they'd want to see a few more high fastballs. Or maybe the Astros just like the idea of getting a ~120-inning pitcher who is willing to either start or relieve over multiple innings. That's exactly what the Astros pitching staff could use more of
Tim
9:30
Which free agent are you most surprised hasn’t signed yet?
Jeff Sullivan
9:30
It's probably either AJ Pollock or Marwin Gonzalez. Pollock rumors have died off of late, it feels like, and Gonzalez ought to have a strong market that's mostly unrelated to the fate of the guys at the top
R
9:31
i got a rejection letter from the director of Padres R&D but it wasnt Dave?  Did he get promoted? differnent role?
Jeff Sullivan
Dave is listed as a Senior Analyst
Sounds like you heard from Adam Esquer
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