Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 10/21/16
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Jeff Sullivan
9:40
Trout is and remains one of the greatest young players in baseball history. That being said -- at this point, Trout has another four years left. His salaries are about to take off after 2017. His trade value is extraordinary, but it's the lowest it's been. Russell is an established player now and Contreras is one of the top young catchers
9:41
I *still* think the Angels would say no. They might figure there's too much to lose, and too little guaranteed. (For the purposes of this question I'm ignoring the presence of Andrelton Simmons)
9:42
On paper though, I see how that exchange could be justifiable. You have to believe in Russell and you have to believe in Contreras, but, I mean, they're pretty easy players to believe in
Elton
9:42
Who would have guessed three years ago that Rich Hill and Jake Arrieta would (potentially) be facing off in a Game 7?
Jeff Sullivan
9:42
God
probably God
Zonk
9:43
Kershaw, Jansen, Hill NLCS: 16.1 IP, 5 H, 18K, 0.00 ERA Everyone Else in Dodger Blue: 18.2 IP, 23 H, 16K, 5.63 ERA.....I would be shocked if Roberts didn't try and pitch JUST those top three guys from here on out. Thoughts?
Jeff Sullivan
9:44
Kershaw, of course, will go as deep as possible. If that works out, Hill's a great guy to have available for Game 7, but he's less efficient. He's less likely to get so far into the game, given how the Cubs are so patient, and then that could force you into the middle relief. Jansen should and would be used aggressively but if Hill has to come out in, say, the sixth, I have to think Roberts hasn't completely lost his faith in Joe Blanton
Dock Ellis
9:44
How's the Best Coast treating you?
Jeff Sullivan
9:44
I've been here for years. Dave moved last month. So I don't know if you're confused? But in any case, it's still the best coast, and it'll remain that way until we're all destroyed by an earthquake
9:45
Even then, it'll still be beautiful. We'll be lucky to die in such a heavenly setting
Stevil
9:46
We know Cozart would likely be a great fit for Seattle next season, but who might be a good alternative to address their need at SS? Could someone like Mercer make sense?
Jeff Sullivan
9:47
Honestly -- I don't want to say it's Cozart or bust, but that's kind of how it feels. If they can't do that, I'm not convinced any of the realistic alternatives are worthwhile
Erik
9:47
Are the Cubs and Dodgers set to meet in the NLCS something like 3 of the next 5 years? They sure seem to be the two healthiest organizations right now, with excellent rosters, tons of money, decent youth, and more prospects still on the way. Are we seeing the first of many clashes between two emerging dynasties?
Jeff Sullivan
9:48
You can't really be set up any better than the Cubs or the Dodgers. They have the best blends of everything you'd want in an organization. So then it's just left up to the vagaries of how baseball will proceed. The Nationals have a decent setup. The Mets might have all their pitchers back next year. The Giants still have a solid core. Nothing's going to be a cakewalk
9:49
But if you asked me today to pick the next five NL pennants, I'd see no reason to go away from LA/Chicago
Justin
9:49
Has anyone at FG tracked Kershaw's results pitching in cold weather? Just curious if the Cubs have any built-in advantage, since tomorrow night is supposed to be COLD in Chicago.
Jeff Sullivan
9:50
If anything, cold weather causes offense to be further suppressed. Expect the game to finish like 2-1
Erik
9:50
How much more do Lester's yips hurt him next year when he doesn't have Ross to protect him?
Jeff Sullivan
9:51
A certain extent more, but even last year, when Lester's running control was worse, he was still good. No matter what, the most important thing will remain how good Lester is at keeping guys off base in the first place
Bernard
9:52
Hi Jeff, is there a win expectancy chart for the postseason alone? If so, how does it differ from the regular season? I'm guessing that each run added would lead to a higher WPA
Jeff Sullivan
9:53
To my knowledge, no, the math is all the same. And realistically, that's how it should be, but there's no question that the run environment in the playoffs is lower. So if you were to fold that in, every lead would be more "stable". Runs would have slightly bigger effects, since they've become so hard to come by
Brett W
9:55
Easiest park to homer to right center?
Jeff Sullivan
9:56
Hard to say for certain off the top of my head, but Cincinnati is at least a strong contender
Oh, wait, no, it's Yankee Stadium
Yankee Stadium is the answer
Zonk
9:57
Jon Lester is actually not one of the worst hitters ever anymore. 24% K-rate this season, he hit 3 2B, drove in 6 runs, and even walked 6 times. Had 10 SH. His swings last night were decent. I'm not saying he's Bumgarner or anything, but he isn't hopeless like August alluded to in his article.
Jeff Sullivan
9:57
I think it's true that Lester has gotten better at the plate, and Statcast does like his contact. But he still blows
9:58
That's not me being mean. Pitchers just blow
J
9:58
Home field advantage - is it because teams are built to their home park or do players really just do better at home?
Jeff Sullivan
9:58
All kinds of things. Park familiarity. Sleeping at home. Psychological crap. And subconscious umpire bias. Umpires appear to favor home teams by a slight degree, and subtle effects add up
Erik
10:00
Who's the most expensive free agent a team like the Phillies, who won't plan on competing next year, but have every intention to compete in 2018 and beyond, should sign this offseason?
Jeff Sullivan
10:00
The hell with it. Sign Eric Thames!
10:01
Convince him to take two years and see what in the hell it is that he does
Stevil
10:03
How might the Marlins address their seemingly desperate situation for starting pitching now? If trading from the major league level is their best bet, who might make a good trade partner?
Jeff Sullivan
10:05
The Marlins, obviously, have wound up in a challenging situation, and there's nothing that's likely to help them from the farm
10:06
So as they try to contend it's hard not to see someone like Derek Dietrich as a potential trade asset. Now, Dietrich probably has only modest trade value, but I do wonder if, say, the Marlins could try to convince the Padres to sell Tyson Ross now
Probably, the Padres would prefer to wait and let Ross try to reestablish himself. Dietrich wouldn't be enough of an upside get to sway them. But the Marlins don't have a lot of flexibility
Maybe they become the team that takes a shot at Ivan Nova
10:07
(That is not sexy)
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