Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 10/21/16
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Matt
10:48
Off the wall trade... Braves trade Ender Inciarte to the Astros for Colin McHugh + some smaller pieces. Thoughts? Seems it could help both teams quite a bit.
Jeff Sullivan
10:48
I think the Braves would probably like someone younger, with higher upside
Cubs Fan
10:48
Who would you rather be right now, Roberts or Maddon? Kershaw and Hill on the road, or Hendricks and Arrieta at home?
Jeff Sullivan
10:48
I'll take the guy who has to win one game instead of two
10:49
On the other hand, Roberts is 44 and Maddon is 62, so given that I'd rather be the guy who has more remaining time to be alive
Ccc
10:50
As a casual-ish baseball fan, how do I stop feeling sad after the inevitable change/collapse of my favorite team?
Jeff Sullivan
10:51
Sit outside and watch a bird or a squirrel. Allow your mind to get even briefly lost in nature and you're going to find yourself smiling without even knowing why
Brett W
10:51
With all respect, the easiest base to steal against Lester is 1st. If you can bunt to the third base side of the mound, it's a single. I can't find video, but Peter Bourjos mastered this move in a Cubs-Phillies game in June. If the bunt is good, there's nothing his teammates can do to help him.
Jeff Sullivan
10:51
The only problem is that bunting is super hard. If it weren't, we'd see a lot more of it
mike
10:52
Blue Jay bullpen gave up fewer runs (zero) than the Cleveland bullpen. But narrative is that Francona managed the heck out of his pitching staff. isn't true narrative that the blue jays bats went cold at the worst time...
Jeff Sullivan
10:52
Both teams' bats went identically cold. Look at the numbers. Everyone sucked!
Tanner
10:52
I know you and Dave rag on Harold Reynolds quite a bit, but at the risk of sounding dumb, I don't think I can quite target a *bad* broadcaster/color commentator vs a *good* one (I can spot the difference between Vin Scully and Reynolds, but that's about it). In your opinion, what attributes does a good broadcaster/CC have, and who do you think are a couple great ones in the game today?
Jeff Sullivan
10:53
I always try to give announcers the benefit of the doubt because it's insanely difficult to talk about a baseball game for three or four hours in a row. I don't mind people who express their opinions and I don't mind analysis that I disagree with. The thing that puts me off with Reynolds is that too often he says things that are just plain stupid.
10:54
Like at one point -- I think it was Joc Pederson, and Reynolds said the Dodgers were probably disappointed by an RBI hit-by-pitch, because Pederson had been taking some good swings. No team would be disappointed by a free base and run! That's a great result!
10:55
All I want is for an announcer to avoid saying things that are very clearly dumb. That's it. Reynolds too often fails that test
Joe
10:55
You think Schwarber will catch much next year?
Jeff Sullivan
10:55
I don't
Cole
10:55
With the astros superb young core of players, what do you think they should do to ensure another season is not wasted. I'd like to see a deal for a Eaton/Calhoun type of player
Jeff Sullivan
10:56
As Dave has mentioned, it's possible to see them as a strong bidder for Cespedes
But even right now, I think they're probably the favorites in the AL West. They don't need to go crazy
Dan
10:57
Can I convert BsR into runs? i.e., 30 BSR = 3 wins (roughly)?
Jeff Sullivan
10:57
Yeah, it's the same as usual, where it's like 9 or 10 runs to a win
Erik
10:57
I've seen research that says a threat to steal negatively effects the pitcher, but actually stealing negatively effects the batter. Any chance teams are deliberately not stealing because they think they get more value from distracting Lester? Not sure if it is working, but at least there would be a logic behind it.
Jeff Sullivan
10:58
I think a problem is that when a runner takes off, the hitter sees that and takes a pitch, and that pitch is often a strike. Hitters infrequently swing at first pitches of at-bats. Run on the first pitch!
Dan
10:58
So I'm assuming Fowler is gone next year?
Jeff Sullivan
10:58
I sure think so
Colin
10:58
Am I the only one who wants nothing more out of baseball than to see the Shohei Otani experiment in the Major leagues?
Jeff Sullivan
10:59
You are far from being alone
Dan
10:59
Idea: if a pitchers average time between pitches exceeds X fine the club 50k. It's not annoying, and would encourage faster pace.
Jeff Sullivan
10:59
I don't know why you'd penalize the team instead of the offender
ljc
11:00
More frustrating: Cubs fans watching Lester not throw over, or Dodgers fans watching their runners with huge leads not steal?
Jeff Sullivan
11:00
Dodgers fans. Cubs fans keep watching Lester get wins
T
11:00
Even at full strength the Indians feel like a big underdog vs either NL team. If they win how do you think it happens?
Jeff Sullivan
11:01
Similar to what we've seen. Extremely aggressive bullpen use, with a surprisingly good start or two. If you assume the AL is better than the NL, as usual, then the gap is closer than it might appear
Sonny
11:01
Industry wide did FO's think Miller was capable of his current role more than maybe Chapman would be? Chapman more of a trad 3 out 9th only closer his entire career to this point while Miller has had different roles
Jeff Sullivan
11:01
Yeah, Miller has been perceived as being more flexible
Bucket List
11:02
Why is the narrative around this series whether or not the Cubs can hit the Dodgers? No one is talking about the fact that the Dodgers need to score off of Hendricks on Saturday. In Game 2, the Dodgers scored one run on a cheap home run and Baez lost a 2-run home run to the wind. The wind easily could have changed the story of game 2.
Jeff Sullivan
11:02
I think that *was* the narrative when the Cubs weren't scoring. Now the Cubs have scored a lot!
jon
11:02
There is very little evidence that the AL would be more difficult for the 2016 Cubs.
Jeff Sullivan
11:03
Except that the American League overall was once again better than the National League
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