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Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 10/26/18
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Grover
9:30
If they miss out on Harper/Machado could you see the Dodgers using their budget on absorbing a big contract like Stanton or Grienke?
Jeff Sullivan
9:30
I could see them making a play for Greinke long before I could see them making a play for Stanton. Don't think they want that contract on the books
9:31
Greinke has three more years. Stanton has nine
Jack
9:33
Do you think we’ll ever see any mega prospects with the balls to threaten to not report to Triple-A and/or demand a trade in instances where they’re obviously being kept in the minors for service time manipulation? Teams won’t do it if they don’t feel it’s worth it, and the way to make them feel that way may be to make them feel like they’re risking ruining their relationship with the player
Jeff Sullivan
9:35
All it would take is one player, but I don't think we'll see anything beyond what we see now -- a frustrated statement from the agent, some grumbling, and a threat of a grievance. A player just doesn't have that much leverage, under the current construction, and the same player also wouldn't want to upset his employer when he's so close to making his debut. More and more, I assume players know how these things work. There are effectively seven years of club control, not six
But I do think there's a glimmer of hope that service-time manipulation is in some way addressed in a forthcoming CBA. Try to nip this in the bud, now that these maneuvers are getting harder and harder to hide or explain away
Stevil
9:38
Hey Jeff, I'm curious if you think a swap of Kyle Seager for Wil Myers might make sense. As I understand it, Seager's club option would become a player option if he's traded, so the money involved would be about the same. San Diego would get a better defensive option for 3B, Seattle would get an upgrade at 1B or a potential alternative for an outfield corner. Who says no?
Jeff Sullivan
9:40
I don't think it's impossible, and I do think there would be some amount of interest in Seager from the San Diego side, but Seager is three years older than Myers, and he's coming off a seemingly worse season. The Padres would be getting older and not that much better, and then the Mariners would also be left without a third baseman
Maybe you could build something *around* Seager and Myers, but the odds are better that Seager will just have to try to figure it out in Seattle
Nelson
9:41
Max Muncy has a wRC+ of 141 vs lefties with a 255/361/529 line. What more could dave Roberts possible want?
Jeff Sullivan
9:41
I suspect the Dodgers don't believe that Muncy's statistics reflect his true talent
9:42
His strikeout rate did jump almost ten percentage points in the second half, and it's gone up again in the playoffs. 20 strikeouts in 46 playoff plate appearances
Maybe the Dodgers are wrong, but I think they've concluded Muncy isn't the perfect matchup against the bulk of playoff-caliber pitching
Ross
9:44
What do you think the chances are that Harper could sign with a surprise team like when Greinke signed with Arizona? Who do you think it could be? Let’s say a “surprise team” is anyone outside of WSH, NYY, PHI, CHC, LAD, SF
Jeff Sullivan
9:45
I'll say 0.5% chance he signs with the Marlins, and 1.5% chance he signs with the Padres
9:46
That's not based on any inside information. Just a pair of longshot hunches
Ian Kinsler
9:46
Am I getting benched tonight?
Jeff Sullivan
9:46
Wouldn't Holt ordinarily draw the start against Buehler anyway?
Dustin
9:47
What's the worst thing that could happen to Ryan Madson: Being inserted into another high-leverage situation this week, or being forced to ingest a handful of candy corn?
Jeff Sullivan
9:47
Those are both wonderful things that could happen
You have presented a choice between two wonderful things
Tim
9:48
Do you think Edwin Jackson could name every MLB team he’s played for without any hesitation or ever having to stop and think?
Jeff Sullivan
9:48
Nope
Fun fact I learned from Ben Lindbergh this morning: Edwin Jackson ranks second on the all-time list of major-league teammates!
9:49
He'd probably go up to first if he signed with a new club this winter
John
9:49
Any thoughts on the managerial hires so far?
Jeff Sullivan
9:49
Baldelli seems like the most interesting of the four, but in all honesty I know so little about the managers who are already managing
9:50
Even having talked with beat writers and team people over the years, I don't think anyone knows what to make of a manager
Bruce
9:50
Pitch tipping has replaced Pitch framing as the least interesting thing I keep seeing articles about and not reading
Jeff Sullivan
9:50
On the one hand, I think you're doing yourself a disservice -- these can be interesting subjects
On the other hand, yeah
9:51
I don't think pitch-tipping almost ever explains why a guy is having a hard time. I think it's almost always just bad pitching
But, whatever. Some players believe in it, and it can be fun to break down the video if there's actually something notable to be found
Stevil
9:54
How is Dansby Swanson not a finalist for a Gold Glove?
Jeff Sullivan
9:54
I don't know -- I don't know why Galvis is up there -- but Ahmed ought to win it anyway
9:56
I guess Crawford has the developing precedent, but Ahmed is special
Ryan
9:56
Hi Jeff. I am curious, what is your ZIPs win probability for the Dodgers in the game today?
Jeff Sullivan
9:57
I don't know. I don't run ZiPS!
But our scoreboard page currently puts the Dodgers at 59% https://www.fangraphs.com/livescoreboard.aspx?date=2018-10-26
That includes the home-field advantage
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