Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 10/28/16
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Jeff Sullivan
9:03
Hello friends
Let's Friday baseball chat!
Bork
9:03
Hello, friend!
Jeff Sullivan
9:03
Hello friend
Q-Ball
9:03
Weather forecast tonight is for 30-40 mph gusts blowing out to left. Which team does that favor more, and why?
Jeff Sullivan
9:04
So, yeah, this is expected to be a huge variable going in. Crazy wind blowing out, for two somewhat contact-oriented pitchers
9:05
My hunch -- this is unstudied -- is it slightly favors Cleveland? Tomlin, already, is homer-prone. Hendricks' whole game is reducing quality contact. But if you're allowed to succeed with worse contact against Hendricks tonight, then that could even things out. Even ordinary fly balls begin to look threatening
9:06
Now, on the other hand, Hendricks gets a few more strikeouts, and a few more grounders. But then, I think Francona is already prepared to remove Tomlin earlier
Maikel
9:06
Does a Matz/Wheeler for Ender Inciarte trade make sense for both teams?
Jeff Sullivan
9:06
Do you mean both pitchers? Don't think the Mets would give up both pitchers
Oneear
9:07
So Cleveland hits breaking balls. You think Hendricks limits how many he throws?
Jeff Sullivan
9:07
Hendricks is already hardly a breaking-ball pitcher. You're going to see a lot of his changeup, and that four-seamer in on lefties under the hands
CamdenWarehouse
9:08
Did you see the number of comments Dave's article about the watchability of Game 2?
Jeff Sullivan
9:09
There's probably a little lesson in here. Dave was writing from the perspective of someone without a rooting interest. No fan of a team involved would pretty much ever be bored by a championship game. But for the more removed observers, that was pretty dull
Think of how Devils fans felt about their quality hockey in the 90s, vs. how other people felt about the Devils
Q-Ball
9:10
Given Tomlin's reverse splits and the projected wind out to LF, should the Cubs start Soler in RF instead of Heyward? What would you do?
Jeff Sullivan
9:10
I still like Heyward enough. I trust his defense more with an unpredictable wind environment, and in theory you could get some of his suboptimal contact to turn into productive results
Interestingly, I just looked it up and Soler himself has no platoon split. Odd!
Five tool
9:11
Who are some recent pitchers that have had 80(or pretty close to) grade command? Cliff Lee is a guy who comes to mind,IMO.
Jeff Sullivan
9:11
Cliff Lee, absolutely
Obviously Greg Maddux if you want to count him
Hendricks might be a 70 who flashes 80 at his best
9:12
Look for anyone who's successful without clearly dominant weapons. It's going to be because of command. Like, even Mark Buehrle probably had outstanding location, relative to his peers
Tim
9:12
Will the Twins be the AL Central team in the World Series next year?
Jeff Sullivan
9:12
A big part of me hopes so, but, no, absolutely not, never under any circumstances
JT
9:13
Jeff, what do you think of the trend of the past few years of teams regressing sabremetrically in regards to thinking the outfield isnt hard to play. Lots of teams, even smart ones, seemingly think its a good idea to arbitrarily stick guys in the outfield....or sign them to 9 figure contracts to play outfield
Jeff Sullivan
9:14
I think everyone understands defense is hard, but I think we're starting to see some positional barriers break down. With defenders already shifting around so much, specific positions are losing their unique "identities" and players are becoming more familiar with fielding in a number of areas. I believe we're entering an age of increased player versatility
The Cubs would be out on the forefront of that
Reginald
9:15
Pirate fan here. What do you think of offering the Mets Andrew McCutchen for Familia, Gsellman and a low level prospect? Is that too much? not Enough?
Jeff Sullivan
9:15
Not nearly enough
Are you sure you're a Pirates fan?
Last year be damned, we currently have McCutchen projected to be worth 3.5 - 4 wins again
Zonk
9:16
Is there another park in baseball with such extreme weather effects as Wrigley? When it's cold and the wind is blowing in, it's an extreme pitcher's park. On nights like tonight, it might play like Coors East. Thoughts?
Jeff Sullivan
9:16
I can't think of a comparable ballpark. Every park, of course, can play differently, but Wrigley is so extreme. Incidentally, Progressive Field can play mighty hitter-friendly when it has its own strong wind patterns
9:17
There have also been some crazy wind-aided dingers in Detroit that I recall
Tim
9:17
Is game 3 a must win for the Cubs?
Jeff Sullivan
9:17
No, not at all
There's no such thing as a must-win in a non-elimination game, and even if the Cubs were to lose, they'd still be the favorites over the remaining four games combined
Ian
9:18
Could you see the Braves making a big move or two? Eno and others seem to think Coppy is really gonna push.
Jeff Sullivan
9:18
Would something like signing Matt Wieters count?
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