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Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 10/7/16
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Milton
10:34
Last night late in the game one of the announcers complimented the Blue Jays for I believe it was a couple of instances of not taking bases on passed balls when they were up a gazillion runs already. Do you think those were actually conscious decisions not to humiliate the opponent?
Jeff Sullivan
10:35
I think that's mostly wired into players, yeah. I doubt they were thinking about it specifically in the moment, but that's one of the more prominent unwritten rules
botchatheny
10:35
4 playoff games today is pretty cool, don't ya think?
Jeff Sullivan
10:35
These days are always so much fun for about eight and a half hours
Historically I've run out of gas around the fifth or sixth inning of Game 3
TF Fredrik
10:36
For the Cubs, from a motivational perspective, is there any type of gain to be had playing the Giants? Like now media, fans, etc. are viewing this as a challenge or even an uphill battle against the Madison Post Season Heroes #evenyear bull shit. You know pro sports teams love playing that underdog card even if they were the best team in baseball during reg season.
Jeff Sullivan
10:36
I'm sure Joe Maddon has seized upon this
The Cubs were never going to be lacking for motivation but it's probably more "interesting" for them to face the Giants than, say, the Nationals
Scott
10:37
Hey Jeff, what is the process for obtaining press credentials? I have a paid position at a smaller baseball website and live in a city with a pro team. Is there any chance of getting into the press box with that background or is it pretty much just guys from newspapers and major sites? Thanks.
Jeff Sullivan
10:37
Get in contact with the media relations guy/girl and just find out. If you're trying for something in the playoffs I doubt it's going to happen if you don't already have a relationship with the individual
Kevin
10:38
Huge fan of your writing Jeff. Which team that lost 90+ this year do you think is in the best shape to turn it around the quickest?
Jeff Sullivan
10:38
Brewers just miss the cut!
10:39
Going off BaseRuns, I think the Rays could already project as something like a .500 team. But the Phillies might be best poised to be *good* again soonish
AC
10:40
Do you think that if "high-leverage" relievers become mainstream, that there will have to be an adjusted way to look at their stats to account for the higher difficulty of batters faced? Like if Andrew Miller was used exclusively vs 1-5 hitters for an entire season, his numbers would obviously look inflated, but that doesn't mean he's any worse.
Jeff Sullivan
10:40
There could be something to this, yeah. Already higher-leverage relievers tend to face the most difficult opponents so it sort of balances out when you compare them to their peers. But eventually we should get better about a quality-of-opposition adjustment in our numbers
Sirras
10:40
Ron Darling does better on local broadcasts because he has Keith to do color. Ron can stick to analysis. I find that he does more color on national broadcasts and it isn't as strong a suit for him.
Jeff Sullivan
10:40
there you go
Jaack
10:40
What would be your walk rate against Jonathan Sanchez?
Jeff Sullivan
10:40
1%
10:41
But I'd sure as shit try for that 2%
August...
10:41
Could Andrew Miller pitch in 4 out of 5 games in a dev series (shiver)
Jeff Sullivan
10:41
To some extent, almost certainly yes
He can't go 40+ every time, though
v2micca
10:42
I hear a lot of anecdotal accounts of old school pitchers from days gone by putting up 250+ innings a year. But, when I actually look at pitching trends from the 60's and 70's I'm finding far more pitchers that topped 250 innings once or twice and then never cracked triple digits for a season again. Am I misreading the data or where we just incredibly ignorant to the volatility of pitching until the last two decades?
Jeff Sullivan
10:42
In the old days, pitchers used to be abused, and some of them could take it, and many of them got hurt and disappeared
10:43
History forgets the second group of guys
Referee Vogt
10:43
Do you see a potential trade fit between the A's and the Pirates for McCutchen? A's trade some of their young pitchers and Eibner/Smolinski stopgap, Pirates call up Meadows later?
Jeff Sullivan
10:43
I think McCutchen would go somewhere higher-profile and higher-budget
Sam
10:43
Re: Searage... the pirates re-upped their whole coaching staff for next year. And also.. I don't think you can just take him anywhere and get the same results. Remember when Mazzone left Atlanta? He works *as part of* a system.
Jeff Sullivan
10:43
This is an important point. Just because Ray Searage is the face of something doesn't mean he's the entirety of something
10:44
Last offseason the Pirates lost Jim Benedict to the Marlins. Then the Pirates' pitching results were worse. Who knows why!
mijo
10:44
What do you think about making the DS 7 games and the WS 9? I feel like that would better reflect the longevity of the regular season.
Jeff Sullivan
10:44
I mean, I wouldn't hate it, but I wouldn't see the point for it either. You're never going to turn a small-sample series into an accurate reflection of the length of the year.
10:45
The playoffs will forever be at least in large part about randomness, so, buckle up
12 to 6
10:45
Would there still be a Mike Trout MVP debate if he was on the east coast?
Jeff Sullivan
10:45
if Mike Trout played for the Rays, the situation wouldn't be any different
Kimball
10:46
Despite DiPoto's many moves, the Mariners profiled remarkably similar to last year when all was said and done. Somewhat better outcomes, but mostly the same strengths, same weaknesses. With a middling payroll and an in-the-mix-every-year mandate, isn't that likely to repeat next year as well?
Jeff Sullivan
10:46
The hope is probably that a healthier version of the same team wins a few extra ballgames. Hisashi Iwakuma was the only qualified starting pitcher. Most of the bullpen came apart. There's something to it
TechChat
10:46
Jeff, the site has been super buggy/slow on Chrome for a few weeks, but it's worse than ever today. Figure you guys would want to know and pass it onto the tech crew. Thanks, and keep up the great work.
Jeff Sullivan
10:47
I'll pass this along, thanks
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