JotCast | Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 11/10/17

Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 11/10/17

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Jeff Sullivan

9:46

First-half ERA: 2.62. Second-half ERA: 6.38!

First-half xFIP: 4.78. Second-half xFIP: 5.16

Never believe in a low home-run rate

Raindog

9:47

Is it just me, or is Jaime Garcia actually a pretty ok back of rotation starter? Like, obviously better than Vargas or Cashner?

Jeff Sullivan

9:48

I think he belongs to the same general group. Adequate No. 5 who you'd never want starting for you in the playoffs. Not a guy who should ever see a lineup a third time through

Natsfan

9:50

Michael A Taylor was the best defender in the NL by UZR/150 by a wide margin, and Anthody Rendon was the best infielder in the NL by a wider margin. If I choose to get miffed about Gold Glove awards, is this a reasonable line of argument?

Jeff Sullivan

9:50

Yeah, that would be your starting point

Now, Arenado destroyed Rendon by DRS, so there's that

9:51

And I'm not sure Taylor was better than Billy Hamilton, who didn't even win, himself

Taylor had a case, although he was presumably hurt by his more limited playing time

Hae-Lo Dee

9:51

Does Jose Abreu get traded this offseason, or does the glut of first basemen on the market kill his value enough that Chicago holds on?

Jeff Sullivan

9:52

Yeah, feels like there's too many first basemen around. And while Abreu is good, he's probably not great enough to really stand out

Natsfan

9:52

Michael A Taylor is better than Byron Buxton. You heard it here first!

Jeff Sullivan

9:52

You're right, I did

Brett W

9:52

If the Marlins and Cubs were definitely going to engage in a Stanton for Heyward swap, what other players and cash are moving in both directions?

Jeff Sullivan

9:53

As I've thought about it more, one of the commenters from last week was correct. Heyward doesn't make much sense as a swap here because the Marlins would be moving Stanton specifically to shed money

If the Marlins are trying to get their payroll under $90 million, I don't know how you do that while bringing Heyward on board

Chris Miller

9:53

What do you expect Stanton to cost the Cardinals in prospects and taking on remaining contract?

Jeff Sullivan

9:54

The return package is probably going to feel pretty damn light unless the Marlins assume a ton of the cost

Stenzy

9:54

Would a Denard Span to Baltimore make any sense? Lefty with only one year left on deal.

Jeff Sullivan

9:54

Classic super boring Orioles possibility

The rumor I saw yesterday linking them to Vargas and Cashner just bummed me out

Just sign Jarrod Dyson or something

groucho

9:55

What's a more likely scenario for a Stanton to StL trade - The cardinals give more/marlins eat more money, or the cardinals give less/marlins eat less money?

Jeff Sullivan

9:55

I think the latter

Nick

9:55

Hey Jeff - this past postseason we saw the home team have an extremely high winrate. Does this benefit MLB by engaging fans better? Do you think MLB has an active interest in increasing the home field advantage in the sport overall to encourage fans to attend games more often? Is there even a reasonable way to do that?

Jeff Sullivan

9:55

I don't think you can really do anything meaningful to boost the home-field advantage. And while this October's home winning percentage was high, it was low in both 2015 and 2016

9:56

It might -- might -- be preferable if the home team won like 60% of the time, but I don't know how you get there without some weird-ass rules change

Trixie

9:56

Where do you think Freddy Galvis plays next year? Does he stay with the Phillies?

Jeff Sullivan

9:57

I have not had and will not have any thoughts on this

Silly Beane

9:57

Oakland needs OF help. What can the A's offer Milwuakee or St. Louis for some of their young OF surpluses?

Jeff Sullivan

9:57

Saw something yesterday linking the A's to Yelich/Ozuna, which makes a certain amount of sense

9:58

I think the A's would love to move Ryon Healy, although his value is limited. They have more young talent in house now than they've been given credit for, so some sort of package could be assembled

9:59

Maybe they'd turn around and move Jorge Mateo. Maybe they try to sell someone on Boog Powell's 108 wRC+

Jay

10:00

Is this the last offseason Cleveland has a realistic shot to get an extension done with Francisco Lindor? Feels like once he hits arbitration years they are going to have a hard time completing one.

Jeff Sullivan

10:01

You still see some major extensions within the arbitration years. Jean Segura, Troy Tulowitzki, Giancarlo Stanton, Joey Votto, Elvis Andrus, Miguel Cabrera...

10:02

I don't think it'll get *easier*, as Lindor starts earning more and more money, but this isn't going to be their last chance

Sonny

10:05

If 20 teams post for Ohtani Nippon gets $400M. The most Ohtani can get in a signing bonus is about $3M. Burn down the damn system and start over.

Jeff Sullivan

10:05

Nippon Ham only collects $20 million from the team that signs Ohtani

They don't get the posting fee from everyone

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