Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 11/11/16
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Jeff Sullivan
9:02
Hello friends
Welcome to Friday baseball chat
Waiting for you, Bork!
LudeBurger
9:02
praise Jeff, for baseball chat!
Jeff Sullivan
9:02
Praise FanGraphs, for the assignment!
Big Pete
9:02
Joel Sherman tweeted yesterday that the Rays came away from the GM meetings more confident that they're going to trade one of Archer/Odorizzi/Smyly. Chris Archer for Andrew McCutchen -- who says no? And what would have to be added to make it work? C'mon Jeff, rosterbate with me.
Jeff Sullivan
9:03
That would be an exceptionally easy no for the Rays. Really no reason for them to do that. You get a similar level of production, for more money, and with way fewer years of control. Archer is tremendously valuable and the Rays are fully aware of that
9:04
I also feel obligated to say -- it's a virtual certainty the Rays move a starting pitcher, but there's a huge difference between moving Archer and moving Odorizzi or Smyly
Xolo
9:05
What does/should a Wil Myers extension look like?
Jeff Sullivan
9:05
So Myers is coming off a decent year. He has three years of arbitration eligibility. If you just give me a moment to think...
9:08
You can probably buy out the remaining arb years for $25 - 30 million. Then it becomes a matter of how many free agency years you want. Belt had his valued around $16 million. Let's say Myers could get...five years, $60 - 65 million
9:09
Now, personally, I don't love Myers that much, but the Padres need to build around *something* and they can easily afford to have that kind of contract on the books
Armistice Day
9:10
Whats your opinion on Michael Conforto? (besides his misuse last year)
Jeff Sullivan
9:11
I like him as a player who shouldn't have a big weakness. I know about the issues vs. lefties and I know that 2016 spiraled out of control, but when I think about his profile I consider him at least average practically across the board. That's terrific for a guy who's not 24 until March
9:13
You can look at him and see some, I don't know, Seth Smith? Smith might represent the 40th or 50th percentile projection. Smith has averaged 2.1 WAR per 600 plate appearances for his career, but Conforto has more upside than that
Kiermaier's Piercing Blue Eyes
9:14
Is there any reason to be worried about Archer and Scherzer pitching in the WBC beyond a nonzero injury chance?
Jeff Sullivan
9:15
I think the injury question is the only thing. You also get a slightly abnormal offseason, but that just folds into the injury-concern category. The teams will do everything they can to make sure any WBC pitchers are put on forgiving programs. They won't get burned out. And then a side advantage is those pitchers could get to 100% earlier than their peers
Around the start of April, a lot of pitchers aren't yet quite season-ready. The WBC pitchers should be at a more advanced stage by comparison
TD
9:15
Wouldn't Rich Hill be a perfect candidate for "relief ace", like Andrew Miller perfected in the postseason? It would probably be similar money and his innings potential would be close.
Jeff Sullivan
9:15
Rich Hill is already a perfect candidate for starting ace
9:16
And being the age that he is, there's no way he'd be willing to take that kind of usage risk, when other teams will offer ordinary contracts for a familiar role
Netflix and Rich Hill
9:17
Hi Jeff! WAR is not a counting stat, but with the way it appears projection systems assume a run scoring environment and normalize wGDP and UZR, we can treat the projected WAR as a correlated factor of PA, yes?
Jeff Sullivan
9:17
sure
Coppy
9:17
I'm obviously signing short term veterans to bridge the gap to our strong farm system. In this same vein, does Jae-gyun Hwang make sense for the Braves? Cheap option that can potentially hold the position until Austin Riley is ready..
Jeff Sullivan
9:18
I like Hwang as a fit for a lot of teams, but I'm not quite sure where the Braves stand on Adonis Garcia. He's their own international project and he's coming off a quite successful second half. My gut tells me the Braves want to see more of that, and they'll have Swanson/Albies before long occupying the middle infield
9:19
So I doubt Hwang ends up in Atlanta. I still think he fits best in Anaheim
(I have no idea if Anaheim is interested)
Nic
9:20
Because I'm helplessly addicted to baseball, one of the first things I thought of after Trump won was how Adrian Gonzalez refused to stay at Trump's hotel in Chicago during the NLCS, and it made me wonder, how many guys from World Series winning teams during Trump's presidency do you think we're going to see pull a Tim Thomas and skip out on the White House visit? Guys like Gonzalez and Adam Jones I could easily see saying screw this
Jeff Sullivan
9:21
Like you said, it's an easy thing to imagine. But it's of course going to depend in large part on the first year of the administration. Some of the more outspoken players will make their decisions based on policy, and despite how the campaign was run, no policies have yet been locked into place
9:22
You could see Adrian Gonzalez skipping out in the hypothetical where the Dodgers win in 2017. That's not hard to foresee. But then, maybe all the immigration stuff was for show. And for certain players, the thrill of a White House visit would outweigh the identity of the individual being visited
Jimothy
9:22
How do you expect the Mariner's offseason to unfold? Big splash? Underwhelming role players?
Jeff Sullivan
9:23
I expect role players. With Felix/Cano already on the books, they can't really bring in another huge salary, and they don't have the young players to exchange for a cheaper impact addition
They were a healthy bullpen away from the playoffs in 2016. They don't need to be splashy
Rob
9:24
Biggest Astros acquisition?
Jeff Sullivan
9:24
Good chance to revisit my long-shot idea of the Astros trying to trade for Joey Votto
But assuming that doesn't happen, I know the Astros want a top-tier starter, and they want a left-handed outfielder. Like so many other contenders, the Astros would make great sense for Rich Hill
9:25
Maybe they say screw the left-handed thing and make a play for Andrew McCutchen
Dock Ellis
9:26
Would Matt Holliday be a good candidate for the Phils to sign/trade at the deadline? He'd be a great stopgap as well as a mentor towards the kids. Phils could offer a few extra mil because they have money to burn.
Jeff Sullivan
9:26
I like Holliday's chance to produce in 2017, and the Phillies need outfield help, but I'm unconvinced Holliday would want to sign with a potential cellar-dweller as his career winds down. So there might not be mutual interest
9:27
He could be a better fit in, say, one of Seattle's outfield corners
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