JotCast | Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 11/11/16

Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 11/11/16

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Rabbinical College Guy

9:28

What is your prediction for Billy Beane's first offseason move?

Jeff Sullivan

9:28

Reminder: Beane is not the GM!

I don't know if it'll be *first*, but it shouldn't be long before Danny Valencia is off the roster somehow

Coppy

9:29

P.S. What is the next Braves offseason move? I'm.. err asking for a friend.

Jeff Sullivan

9:29

A catcher or a reliever

At some point soon expect them to begin engaging other teams on Inciarte trade proposals

JDX

9:30

Hello, Jeff! Is Joey Votto the most underrated hitter by his peers and the fans? Over the last 2 calendar years, he's like .320/.450/.545 (165ish wRC+) or something. That is met with 0 ASG appearances and 0 silver sluggers. (Not that those matter, but thought process is interesting to me)

Jeff Sullivan

9:31

I suspect most of Votto's peers recognize that he's a perfect hitter. And the FanGraphs audience, obviously, recognizes that Votto is amazing. He falls short in the more ordinary public sphere because he's not amazing in the way people want him to be

Zonk

9:31

Saw Schwarber on MLB Network. Very thoughtful guy on hitting! Childhood hero was Joey Votto. Which made me feel old....

Jeff Sullivan

9:31

There's a funny coincidence

9:32

I think it's easy to profile Schwarber as a player and as a person just by looking at him. That profile misses the mark. He's highly thoughtful and he seems to be a wonderful person to have around. There's a reason the Cubs love him to death

Erik

9:33

Is Miguel Cabrera's contract one of the worst in the league, or actually totally fair? On the one hand, he has a first baseman's body, is signed through age 42 and has 9 years left for him to just break down completely. On the other hand...he's Miguel Cabrera.

Jeff Sullivan

9:34

The last couple years are actually club options, so that makes things a little better for Detroit

9:35

Cabrera is guaranteed through 2023, for another $220 million. Just using our contract tool, you might expect him to be worth more like $170 million. But if his age-related decline is smoother, then he hits the mark. And there's little question that he's one of the best pure hitters the game's ever seen

9:36

His contract looks slightly bad, but I expect him to hit for as long as his body allows

Dock Ellis

9:36

Can we please not make rosterbate a thing...

Jeff Sullivan

9:36

It's been a thing for years, man

Zonk

9:36

I'm not Bork, but Howdy good buddy!

Bork

9:36

This isn't Bork. Hello Friend

Jeff Sullivan

9:36

Hello friends

Mad speculator

9:36

Where did August end up going?

Jeff Sullivan

9:36

I don't know why we're not allowed to say, but I'm not allowed to say! He's in a big-league front office.

Max

9:37

What has surprised you in the 2017 Steamer projections so far?

Jeff Sullivan

9:38

First thing that comes to mind, I gotta think the Angels projection. Not because of any particular player. I just didn't expect to see their WAR so high

Ed in Iowa

9:39

Dave mentioned that he could see the Cubs in on Rich Hill. If this is the case then how about Verlander? How much surplus value does he have? I mean would Soler and a couple A Ball lottery tickets be enough or does he have significant value over the 4 yr/$106 he is owed?

Jeff Sullivan

9:40

Verlander is locked in for 3/$84m, but given his no-trade protection, you could see him insisting on his 2020 option becoming guaranteed. That would put him at 4/$106m and that would reduce his value a little bit

9:41

But you'd still be looking at something like $20m+ in surplus value. So Soler+ would make sense as the skeleton of an exchange. I'm just not sure to what extent I buy that the Tigers will really make iconic players available

5 Run Homer

9:43

Bartolo on the Braves! How often have we seen a rotation including two guys in their 40s?

Jeff Sullivan

9:43

I expected this to be easier to search

9:44

It's not so easy. At one point the Phillies had a 46-year-old Jamie Moyer and a 37-year-old Pedro Martinez...

Welp, turns out I can't help you!

Adam

9:44

Were you surprised that Kershaw was left out of the finalists for the CYA?

Jeff Sullivan

9:45

Not really -- voting has always put a high priority on innings totals. I'm not convinced that's how it *should* be, but that's how it is. And when there's uncertainty, writers always find it easy to lean on the precedent

Q-Ball

9:45

I guess the Braves are cornering the market on old innings sponges? Ryan Vogelsong is still available

Jeff Sullivan

9:45

The Braves needed some innings sponges more than you know

9:46

Archer has two club options. Let's pretend that they get picked up

That has him controlled for five years at something like $39 million

9:47

He's projected, over five years, to be worth something like $170 million

And the fact that those are two club options at the end makes him even *more* valuable