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Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 11/16/18
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Jeff Sullivan
9:23
This would have to be part of, say, a hypothetical Paxton trade
9:24
The Padres would be interested in very few of the Mariners' prospects. And they're probably higher now on Hedges than they were a few months ago anyway
Dustin
9:24
This is not a question, but rather a request: Please do not abandon us for a front office! YOUR READERS ARE MORE IMPORTANT THAN YOUR CAREER, JEFF.
Jeff Sullivan
9:26
How many front offices allow their employees to do things like "work remotely" and "go backpacking" and "close their computer"
Tim
9:27
Say the Rays offer Josh Donaldson, a three-year, $60 million contract with an opt out after the first year. Does that make sense for both sides?
Jeff Sullivan
9:27
Don't think the Rays would want to run that risk for 2020/2021, if Donaldson keeps getting injured. They'd probably rather just offer a big, flat deal for one or two years
9:29
The Rays right now are projected for a payroll of like $41 million, which is laughably small. Arbitration starts hitting for real two and three years out. Might even make a case here for a front-load
matt
9:30
Jeff, are you the next Fangraphs writer to leave for a major league team?
Jeff Sullivan
9:30
You'd think Carson's news would be all the proof you need that these things are completely unpredictable
Xolo
9:30
What do you think of the Padres' apparent strategy of trying to trade for an All-Star (Syndergaard, Suarez) after the season they had? Are they getting ahead of themselves? And would they be better going after not quite All-Stars (Eovaldi) in FA?
Jeff Sullivan
9:31
Just generally speaking, the Padres are looking to be aggressive. They're looking to get better, and Preller gets in contact with everyone, about everybody
9:32
They're coming off a down year, sure. And the Dodgers are going to be strong again. But the Padres have money to spend, and the game's best farm system, and I bet they don't feel real threatened in 2019 by the Rockies, Diamondbacks, or Giants
With a good offseason, the Padres could creep north of .500 as soon as next year. It's worth working toward
Kvn
9:34
So, uh, is Mike Elias the GM of the Orioles or not?
Jeff Sullivan
9:34
Sure seems like it. But maybe he's failed the physical
The Ghost of Jio Mier
9:35
I hate to ask, but it's killing me not knowing what is going on with the Astros' front office. Hints have seemingly been dropped that there's something at play there outside of guys leaving for higher posts elsewhere- is there trouble in paradise?
Jeff Sullivan
9:37
I don't have any meaningful connections to Houston, but if I had to speculate, some people haven't loved working under Luhnow. And then, of course, there's the part where the Astros have been immensely successful, so some individuals would be pursued for other openings, elsewhere, by teams who want to pry some of that knowledge away
9:38
The most successful front offices tend *not* to stick together forever
John
9:39
I know the offseason hasn’t even really started yet, but as of now, what percentages would you give the following scenarios for 2019:

1.) The Indians don’t win the AL Central

2.) The Astros don’t win the AL West

3.) The Dodgers don’t win the NL West

4.) Neither the Red Sox or Yankees win the AL East
Jeff Sullivan
9:40
1) 20%
2) 40%
9:41
3) 30%
4) 20%
bcb
9:44
Where have all the cowboys gone?
Jeff Sullivan
Michael J
9:45
Since they extended Kershaw and re-signed Ryu, what other plans (other than Harper) should they pursue? I thought Charlie Morton on a 2 year deal would be nice, but it seems like they don’t need anymore starting pitching.  Maybe Herrera or Miller on a one year deal to bolster the pen?
Jeff Sullivan
9:45
Definitely wouldn't be surprised to see a sexy addition or two to the bullpen. The Dodgers have prided themselves on turning lesser names into capable relievers, but they could always use more depth
9:46
They also need a catcher. They aren't going to run with Barnes and Farmer
9:48
Don't know if they'll go so far as to trade for Realmuto, but someone like Gomes is an option
Ditto Cervelli
Castro and Martin would be somewhat interesting buy-lows
Buck Schowalter
9:49
I'm always surprised at how slow free agency is for the first month. Logic seems to dictate that unless the offers out there are exactly fair to both sides, someone should benefit from agreeing to a deal sooner rather than later, especially considering what has happened to some FAs in the past, right?
Jeff Sullivan
9:51
I think it's easier for teams to predict the layout of the trade market than the free-agent market. You don't always know what's going to end up looking "fair" -- the Phillies, last year, thought they had a good deal with Carlos Santana, and then by the end of the offseason it looked like an overpay
9:52
But front offices are texting about trades all the time. The trade market is just ahead of the free-agent market, in terms of how it's developed. And then you have more "hidden" factors, like the GM meetings, and Thanksgiving, and November being the prime hiring month
9:53
A few free agents will jump at early opportunities, and maybe we'll see more of that as we go along, lest free agents be left out in the cold, but teams generally want to not pay free-agent prices if they can help it
Mike
9:55
What are the chances the Braves make a deal to trade Johan Camargo? If they did, what would they need in return? Could you see a 1-for-1 Hunter Renfroe for Camargo deal happen?
Jeff Sullivan
9:56
I'd rather have Camargo of the two, but you can see the outline of something realistic here. Maybe the Braves also get a reliever. Both players have the same number of team-control years remaining
TooDamnTall
9:57
I'd like to give you my Xmas wishlist for new writer hires. Someone with experience and insight into player development would be aces, even if that isn't the traditional analytical domain of Fangraphs.
Jeff Sullivan
9:58
FanGraphs is looking. But you don't find many people with baseball experience looking to work on the public side. At least, not many good people, with constructive and insightful things to say
The good ones tend to stay in the industry, once they're in the industry
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