Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 11/18/16
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Jeff Sullivan
9:43
Odds are, an opening will materialize before too long. He could also, alternatively, bide his time as a multi-inning reliever
Ed in Iowa
9:43
Article idea for you: How does your article submission process work? Does your work go to Carson and then on to Dave and then back to Carson for posting? Does Dave not read everything ahead of time? Does he ever veto anything? Is that different for the core team than it is for writers that just regularly contribute? I mean not everyone is going to care, but I bet a lot of Fangraphs readers would find that interesting.
Jeff Sullivan
9:44
I'm basically on my own. I come up with something, I write something, and then I publish something. Seldom do I reach out for help or editing. This isn't gloating or anything -- I'm just on a faster schedule than many of the other writers, because of the post volume
Roadhog
9:44
The A's seem to make a lot of trades on Fridays. Today seems like a good possibility of something happening.
Jeff Sullivan
9:44
I have no counter-argument to this. Are you thinking about the Khris Davis trade? I'm thinking about the Khris Davis trade
A. Reitz
9:44
Liking Houston's moves so far, especially McCann and what he can do for the young pitching staff. McCullers/Musgrove/Paulino/Martes. Reddick isn't great, but still an upgrade. Thoughts?
Jeff Sullivan
9:45
The only issue I have with the roster right now is that there are so many health questions in the rotation. Keuchel, McCullers, Morton -- I don't know what you can count on. Like every other contender in the world, they make sense for Rich Hill
DTH
9:46
is it weird that every deal so far (McCann, Reddick, Cashner) has been met with a collective "meh, that seems about right"? what's the first FA signing or trade that will make everybody sit up and pay attention?
Jeff Sullivan
9:46
Morales was a little questionable, right?
9:47
The overwhelming majority of transactions will be ordinary transactions. Teams aren't stupid, they all value players in the same way, and the guy who made the Shelby Miller trade is out of a job
There will be some amount of criticism when Chapman or Jansen sign for what they'll sign for
Matt
9:48
Seeming more likely that the Jays will have to go the trade route to address their corner outfield spots. From where I'm sitting they don't seem to have a lot of depth in the minors to use as trade capital. Who do you see as potential trade targets and who could they realistically give up?
Jeff Sullivan
9:48
They could still go do something like sign Matt Joyce or whatever
In fact, maybe they should!
Jerry
9:49
How many at bats do you think Vogelbach gets next year, and how do you think he does?
Jeff Sullivan
9:49
Right now I'd say 250 - 300. I expect him to play very similarly to Kendrys Morales
Not Leaving Las Vegas
9:49
If we gsell high on Gsellman, what can we get? Or Lugo?
Jeff Sullivan
9:50
Lugo would probably get you more. He's the more interesting of the two. But I don't think the Mets should be subtracting from their pitching depth. You see how quickly depth can become necessary to stay competitive
Andrew
9:50
On a scale from 1 to Shelby Miller, how stupid would it be for Atlanta to trade major prospects for Sale/Archer this winter?
Jeff Sullivan
9:50
Well that would depend on the prospects. It wasn't stupid for the Diamondbacks to trade for Shelby Miller. It was stupid for the Diamondbacks to trade what they traded for Shelby Miller
9:51
But it looks like Dave just wrote something about this for the main page? Read that!
Outta my way, Gyorkass
9:52
I've heard Dave Cameron mention in several chats that for hitters, strikeouts correlate with higher power outputs, but for pitchers, higher strikeout totals do not correlate with higher power against. How does that work - is it the bad and/or lower strikeout pitchers that bear the brunt of the XBH's and HRs given up by higher strikeout batters?
Jeff Sullivan
9:52
Pitchers face a roughly average slate of opponents. The more of those opponents they strike out, the fewer opportunities there are for those opponents to go deep
9:53
Now, for any one given hitter in the majors, you sort of have a choice. Most major leaguers could go up and try to slap the ball and maximize contact. But if you do that, you won't hit the ball anywhere hard. The harder you swing, the more you miss, but the further the ball goes
9:54
If you want you can always just export some of our statistical leaderboards. You'll find that, for hitters, strikeouts are correlated to power. Not so for pitchers
Tom
9:54
Is a Kevin Kiermaier comp a fair ceiling for Albert Almora?
Jeff Sullivan
9:55
Sure, provided we all understand that "ceiling" means "best-case scenario." Kiermaier is one of the very best defenders on the planet
Kevin Kiermaier : defense :: David Ortiz : offense. A good hitting prospect might have a David Ortiz ceiling, but that doesn't mean he's likely to get there
Guest
9:56
Hey Jeff. I know this isn't necessarily your jurisdiction, but would Fangraphs ever consider doing some kind of colored shading in the cells on your leaderboards? Green for above league average, red for below -- something like that. I often have no idea when looking at some of the more advanced stuff whether a particular stat is good or not.
Jeff Sullivan
9:56
I hear what you mean, but that might cause things to get too cluttered. You can check averages on the individual player pages. But it might help us to just try to explain somewhere what numbers are good and bad
9:57
I think in our glossary pages for stats, there are reference points showing just that
Like here! Scroll down to the table http://www.fangraphs.com/library/misc/war/
Kim
9:57
Would trading Taijuan Walker this offseason be selling low, or is this what he is? What kind of return could he fetch?
Jeff Sullivan
9:58
It would be selling him a little low, given the problems he had with his foot. Now, even the healthy version of Walker is frustrating and a little overrated, but I don't think now is the time to strike
The Mariners don't really have enough SP depth to give a piece away
J
9:59
What is the best stat to measure a hitter's eye, O-swing or Z-Swing minus O-Swing? I've noticed that high strikeout guys tend to swing more overall making their O-swing look worse but they tend to have a higher gap between the two I guess trying to make more contact.
Jeff Sullivan
9:59
I think Z-Swing - O-Swing is probably a little better
Ghost of Gred Madduxes Past
9:59
Do you think Matt Holiday gets priced out of the Rays budget? He seems like an attractive target for them, though he probably makes sense for a number of AL teams looking for some production at DH that won't break the bank.
Jeff Sullivan
10:00
Holliday would be a good get for them. I don't think he'll command so much that the Rays are driven away
LudeBurger
10:00
Does any team have any reason to "sell low"?
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