Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 11/4/16
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Jeff Sullivan
9:06
Hello friends
Welcome to offseason Friday baseball chat
Bork
9:07
Hello, friend!
Jeff Sullivan
9:07
Hello friend
You are always so prompt!
CamdenWarehouse
9:07
How does game 7 fit into the lessons about reliever usage in postseason?
Jeff Sullivan
9:07
Game 7 was the first time the relievers looked particularly gassed, which is interesting -- especially so given that you'd think adrenaline would be at a total maximum
9:08
Chapman, obviously, needlessly pitched in Game 6. There was a time or two when Miller pitched in a similar situation. I think both Maddon and Francona found the limits of how far those elite relievers could be pushed
Down the road, you're going to see the best relievers used more, almost without question. But they won't be used *that* much, because we just saw real downside at the worst possible time
EbenezerBatflip
9:08
Hark, a new day has dawned
Jeff Sullivan
9:08
A new day, with so much less site traffic!
9:09
When I saw the Cameron Maybin news I got unreasonably excited.
Buck Saltwater
9:09
Is it crazy to think that Ruiz is actually worth 4.5M?
Jeff Sullivan
9:10
Honestly that's barely anything these days. Like half a win on the free-agent market. Ruiz deserves that money as a 70-game player or something
The Dodgers would happily pay him that if it weren't for Austin Barnes.
J
9:11
How worried would you be about Chapman's decline? Intuitively it feels like he would age poorly but he's an extreme case.
Jeff Sullivan
9:11
When Chapman debuted, he threw 100. This past season, he threw 100. He clearly won't be throwing 100 forever but he remains a freak
9:12
When I've done analysis before, I've found that Chapman hasn't really suffered very much when he's worked at lower velocity. So he can afford to lose a few ticks -- that high fastball will remain a weapon. But of course, the more he loses, the more he needs to locate. Location isn't a strength of his
You wonder if teams will look at Mark Melancon and see a guy they think might age more gracefully
EbenezerBatflip
9:14
So I was good friends with my boss but then I got promoted and now my boss is a jerk to me. Should I quit or accept being abused by my jerk boss?
Jeff Sullivan
9:14
There is a third option
Even a fourth!
3) ignore him
4) be a jerk back
9:15
I guess the third option reads a lot like your second option. So maybe there are only three. I recommend generally accepting the behavior and, every so often, just occasionally, pushing back for the hell of it. Spice up your life
britishcub
9:15
i saw the list of 139 free agents and by my count about 70 sucked is that harsh or is it a really bad class (i classified retirees as sucking as they will provide nothing)
Jeff Sullivan
9:16
Most of the annual list of free agents always sucks. The real problem with this class isn't at the bottom -- it's with the top. Not much in the way of elites, although that's partially saved by the free agency of three of the game's best relievers
mike
9:17
has anyone recently looked at what each team's local TV deals are worth? With the Blue Jay view numbers averaging over 1.1million per game, you have to think they are easily top 5 however Rogers owns both the team and the broadcaster. Because of this success I hope the jays payroll will be over $160mil and they can find a way to keep EE and improve their OF - any thoughts?
Jeff Sullivan
9:18
Pulling from Cot's, the last three years the Jays have had opening day payrolls around $137m, $126m, and $137m again. Expecting $160m+ would be a push, and I suspect that sort of leap is uncommon, but I'd like to at least see them get to $150m. God knows they can afford it
Brett W
9:19
Can a .500 true-talent 2016 team even compete in 2017 without emptying the farm or extraordinary internal improvements? Marlins, White Sox, Pirates others seem to have very limited good choices now due to lack of a viable free agent market.
Jeff Sullivan
9:20
The Marlins unfortunately find themselves in a...unique circumstance. I might never be able to bring myself to really discuss the consequences of Fernandez's accident but you don't need my assistance there
9:21
Here's the good news, if you want to call it that: even the Rangers look like they were about a .500 true-talent team in 2016. They won the most games in the American League
9:22
If you project to win 81 or 82 games, you don't need a miracle to win 88. It's not the strongest plan in the world, but none of those average teams needs to go crazy
J
9:22
Are we about to see teams focus more on building top heavy pitching staffs?
Jeff Sullivan
9:22
Not in the offseason -- you need that depth for six months, specifically so that the top guys don't end up overworked
9:23
You could see an emphasis on teams "doubling up" -- adding an elite reliever when they already have another one
Jeremy
9:24
What would Joe Mauer have to do in the rest of his career to make the HOF? Amazing peak years but doesn't seem to have the career numbers yet.
Jeff Sullivan
9:25
He needs to have at least like five more average seasons. And he turns 34 in the middle of April. It's not impossible, but Mauer is a Cooperstown long shot
Ed in Iowa
9:26
Having watched 130 Cub games this year all I can say is…. Phew!!! That was very satisfying!
My question: In thinking about the Cubs offseason plans I got to wondering whether the Orioles are ‘win now’ or whether they might entertain offers for Zach Britton. What do you think?
Jeff Sullivan
9:27
Britton has two more years of control, but he's about to get very expensive. I definitely wouldn't be shocked if the Orioles asked around, since they already have Givens and Brach. The only trouble for them is Melancon/Chapman/Jansen already being available for money
5 Run Homer
9:27
The names of Joel Hanrahan and Josh Johnson have both jumped into my head in the past day. No comment, but remember them?
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