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Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 11/9/18
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Jeff Sullivan
9:00
Hello friends
9:01
Welcome to Friday baseball chat
I made it on time to this one! Take that, haters
Xolo
9:01
Fangraphs has the Padres projected at 77 wins with fairly pedestrian Steamer numbers for all the big rookies. With that in mind, wouldn't it make sense for them to go after a guy like Corbin now and see how it goes?
Jeff Sullivan
9:02
I do think the Padres are likely to target at least one interesting and talented pitcher, but I don't think they'll want to pay what Corbin will command
9:03
If you figure Corbin will get an offer from, say, the Yankees, the Padres would have to offer more on top of that. The Padres can't compete with the Yankees' budget. I'm looking for San Diego to target a cheaper starter, with a couple years of team control remaining
9:05
I'll also point out, more generally: every year it seems like Steamer is fairly conservative with its projections. The Padres are at 77-85 right now, but that's also third-worst in the National League
It's not a good or even average team (yet)
Hae-Lo Dee
9:06
How far is Dipoto going to go down the path to rebuild?
Jeff Sullivan
9:06
I think the Zunino trade gives you a clue. Traded Zunino for a major-league player
9:07
Paxton is next and I hear that could happen any day now at any moment. It's going to be a pretty big return for Seattle, but I expect it will feature major-league players as well
9:08
Beyond that, I don't think it'll get more dramatic. Haniger will presumably stay. Ditto Diaz. Might well see one of Gordon/Segura traded, but neither would be a blockbuster
A Rays fan
9:09
I’m upset about this trade with the Mariners. I don’t like that they already settled for Zunino as their catcher this early in the offseason with so many other options, lots of whom I would’ve preferred. I could almost get behind it if Zunino were a potential long-term catcher, but he’s pretty close to free agency. Even if they didn’t want to pay the price for Realmuto, I would’ve preferred trading for Gomes, and there are plenty of competent free agent catchers as well. Sure, Zunino will run into one once in a while, but Mallex seems like a high price to pay for two years of a catcher who had a .259 OBP and strikes out 99% of the time. Can you make me less upset?
Jeff Sullivan
9:10
I already wrote up the near-full extent of my thoughts. Smith got better in 2018, but he's also a strong negative regression candidate. Zunino got worse in 2018, but he's also a strong *positive* regression candidate. Heredia isn't much of a hitter, but he's a great defender, and his handedness helps out the Rays' current roster
9:11
I understand that taking Zunino effectively closes the door to other guys, but Zunino was the player most available right now, and there's some value in answering the big roster question this early in the offseason. And given Zunino's roots in Florida, it's by no means out of the question that he could be extended beyond the two years he has left
9:12
Don't think it's a lopsided trade in either direction, and Jake Fraley is an interesting get for Seattle. But if I'm the Rays, I'm happy
Cito's Mustache
9:13
How concerned should we be about Syndergaard’s decline in K rate? A quick look at Brooks shows a lower whiff% on all of his pitches except the changeup in 2018 vs 2016. Why is he missing fewer bats?
Jeff Sullivan
9:13
Syndergaard, 2018: 24% K%
Syndergaard, career: 27% K%
9:14
Syndergaard, 2018: 13.6% whiff%
Syndergaard, career: 13.4% whiff%
9:16
It's not like Syndergaard completely lost his ability to miss bats, in other words. His strikeout rate did decline this past year from where it began, but given the health issues he dealt with, I think it can be forgiven. The stuff is still present. The bat-missing ability is still present
9:17
When one watches Syndergaard, I think it's easy to conclude he should strike out almost everybody. The K% will never match the *potential* dominance. But I'm in no way worried about his ability
Always going to be about staying on the mound, for him
Ross
9:18
So the Rays have already cleared a spot for Meadows in their outfield and gotten their catcher. What else would you like to see them do this offseason?
Jeff Sullivan
9:18
Really compelling spot for someone like Nelson Cruz or Josh Donaldson on a high-salary, short-term contract
9:19
And they could probably stand to add at least one high-leverage reliever. Someone to replace Sergio Romo
Bjogc
9:19
Why are you punctual today?
Jeff Sullivan
9:19
Podcast today is after the chat, instead of before
Good question!
Hae-Lo Dee
9:20
If the Mariners are 'retooling', they're getting rid of Diaz, right? Do you place much stock in the idea that he'll return more at the deadline?
Jeff Sullivan
9:20
I don't think they're trading Diaz, full stop
Too important to their success
9:21
Now, *should* they trade Diaz? I think there's a great case to be made that the answer is yes. But I don't expect it, not this offseason
Scotty B
9:22
if last year's offseason is analogous to a sailboat regatta, and if this year's offseason appears to be a submarine race, what do you anticipate next year's offseason to look like
Jeff Sullivan
9:23
A raucous cowboy jamboree, with everyone giddily firing bullets into the night
Jack
9:24
With the Mariners apparently ready to withdraw themselves, the race for the AL’s second Wild Card next year will consist of the Athletics, Rays, and...?
Jeff Sullivan
9:24
I think the Angels will end up a dark-horse candidate, and then the Mariners and Twins will cling to distant hope
9:25
Depending on what the Blue Jays do, and depending on what Vlad does when he arrives in the middle of April, there's a non-zero chance there as well
Hae-Lo Dee
9:26
What are the odds of Machado to the Yankees? It feels inevitable.
Jeff Sullivan
9:26
I have them under 50%
But also the highest of all teams
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