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Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 11/9/18
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Jeff Sullivan
10:44
Among realistic suitors, you mean?
Phillies might be the clear No. 1 in these terms
10:45
Cardinals too, if they get involved
10:46
There are a bunch of probable playoff teams who would get better. But teams like the Phillies and Cardinals could *become* probable playoff teams
Brian
10:46
Can the Padres afford to give up the kind of haul it would take to bring a guy like Suarez into the fold, given his cheap team friendly contract?
Jeff Sullivan
10:46
With the Padres' farm system, they could afford just about any player in baseball
10:47
But that being said, I'm starting to get the sense the Reds don't want to prolong this rebuild
I think they actually want to start adding, themselves
Saw an article yesterday linking the Reds and Wade Miley. That was kind of a bummer
Scuffy Mcgee
10:48
Is Daniel Murphy a little under appreciated right now in free agent talks? The guy can hit a baseball pretty well
Jeff Sullivan
10:48
He's less interesting if you start to look at him as a first baseman. But he's still good, and he'll get an everyday role
Brian
10:49
If the Dodgers do nothing this offseason, are they still projected to win the NL West?
Jeff Sullivan
10:49
Yeah, unless the Rockies do something dramatic
The Dodgers already kept Kershaw, and they get to effectively replace Machado with Seager. They're very good
Elliot
10:51
When was the last time the annual Winter Meetings were important/relevant? I feel like even just a few years back we all eagerly awaited it because there usually was a bunch of activity that would come from it. Now I think we don't expect any major business to be transacted.
Jeff Sullivan
10:52
Just two years ago, there was the Chris Sale trade, and the Adam Eaton trade, and the Travis Shaw trade, and the Rich Hill signing, and the Mark Melancon signing, and the Wade Davis trade
Last year was slower, but that was more of an anomaly
Kiner's Disembodied Hands
10:52
Think the Pirates might make a play for Sonny Gray?  It seems like he might be a good fit in Pittsburgh.
Jeff Sullivan
10:52
Probably yes
Hae-Lo Dee
10:52
How excited should M's fans be for Mallex Smith?
Jeff Sullivan
10:53
Ought to be a very fun player, but it's hard not to be spooked by what happened to Dee Gordon's numbers
Speed is electrifying, though. And unlike Gordon, Smith can draw a walk
Scuffy Mcgee
10:54
Does free agency drag again this year if Machado and Harper don't sign deals until late
Jeff Sullivan
10:54
Maybe a little bit, but those players are well removed from the others, out in their own tier. Lots of other, unrelated moves to be made
But it's pretty obvious the trade market is ahead of the FA market right now
Poised
10:54
JD Martinez winning two silver sluggers is pretty dumb, do you agree?
Jeff Sullivan
10:54
Yes
10:55
But I also don't care
Yankees
10:55
Likelier: Re-sign Happ + trade for Indians/Mariners SP or Happ + Corbin or trade + Corbin?
Jeff Sullivan
10:55
Guess I'll go with trade + Corbin
Jaff
10:57
What do you think would be a fair return for Bumgarner?
Jeff Sullivan
10:57
Less than you want me to say. Wouldn't be cheap by any means, but it's one year, at $12 million, for a pitcher whose peripherals have gone in the wrong direction. Feels like a July move to me
Lark
10:58
In last year's FA contract draft, ten out of sixteen players you and Ben named signed smaller contract than MLBTR's prediction, and nine of them signed in February or March,
while out of six players who signed same/over the prediction, five signed in December or January.
In the latest EW episode, you guys predicted "under" for eleven of sixteen, which includes all of MLBTR's top five free agents.
So, assuming you and Ben aren't terribly wrong, the slow offseason again?  or expect something different?
Jeff Sullivan
10:58
I don't think it'll be so slow. I just think a part of the reason will be because expectations will have shifted. Last year is fresh in everyone's memories, and when players/agents expect less, it's easier to satisfy them
10:59
All right, I need to get rolling. Podcast to record
So thank you everybody for hanging out, and I'm sorry for what I didn't or couldn't address. We'll do it again next week at the same time, and until then, be well and have great days
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