Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 12/11/15
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Jeff Sullivan
12:03
Hello friends!
Let's baseball chat!
This one's coming to you live from Dave Cameron's living room. Or, arguably, the room beside the living room, which resembles a living room
c
12:03
please friend, baseball chat
Jeff Sullivan
12:03
It's what we're all here for
Gary
12:04
Do the Braves have a top 5 system now? Higher?
Jeff Sullivan
12:04
Caveat: not a system expert. But take a system that was already deep in talent, and add last year's 1-1 and another top-100 or top-150 pitching prospect. If it's not top 5, I'd be astonished
Sean P!
12:05
As a Cubs fan, I was thinking if the Cubs do trade Soler that Gordon might be a better signing than Heyward assuming the Cubs find a decent centerfielder. Should I be rooting for the Cubs to sign Gordon over Heyward if they find a decent centerfielder?
Jeff Sullivan
12:06
Well it's always about cost, right? Without knowing the costs you can't arrive at a definite conclusion but the thing about Heyward is if you get him you don't need to worry about the additional center-field issue. He fits more needs, which is awful helpful
Kenji
12:07
Why does Fangraphs WAR consider FIP instead of xFIP? Might an xFIP-based WAR be in the works?
Jeff Sullivan
12:08
xFIP pushes everyone to a baseline that isn't always true. There's a certain amount of control over homers, and because the defense is uninvolved, the blame goes to the pitcher
For evaluation purposes, of course, you should look at everything. But if you're trying to talk about what actually happened, homers happened, and no one else is responsible but the pitcher (and I guess you could argue the catcher)
Copp
12:10
If I make a starting offer to Epstein of Inciarte + Teheran for Scwharber, he has to at least be curious right? If I threw in one of Tyrell Jenkins/Richardo Sanchez/Manny Banuelos/Lucas Sims.. are we close?
Jeff Sullivan
12:10
Off the top of my head, you could have the frame of something there,
12:12
...but Epstein might feel like it would be easier to pick up defense instead of Schwarber's higher-valued offense. Schwarber's trade value probably exceeds what would be his actual value, owing to his power.
HappyFunBall
12:12
I'm getting a warm feeling at the notion of Jason Heyward patrolling the Nationals' outfield. Odds you think it happens?
Jeff Sullivan
12:12
10%
j6takish
12:12
Jeff, I know how you love fun facts and pitchers hitting. During his 2 seasons with the Rockies. Mike Hampton was worth 2.2WAR as a hitter and only 2.3 WAR as a pitcher! Also jose Guillen was worth a stupefying -3.1 WAR in 1997
Jeff Sullivan
12:12
Almost all of the time, pitcher hitting is irrelevant, but it's so easy to forget about the value contributed by the guys who are actually decent
12:13
Now, granted, even decent-hitting pitchers are unlikely to get that many opportunities to hit in high-leverage situations, so that drives some of their on-field value down, but it's a real consideration where if you have, say, Greinke on the mound, you've lengthened your own lineup as well
Derek Carr
12:15
Who should get Maeda?
Jeff Sullivan
12:15
This is a difficult market to read at this point and I was going to say Diamondbacks before everything else. The gut feeling I have at the moment says the Giants
Cheis
12:16
I know there was a piece just done on Heyward, but what do you make of the Nats interest in him? And would you play Harper or Heyward in CF if they got him?
Jeff Sullivan
12:16
Of the two, Heyward
12:17
I think it's sort of proactive interest -- softens the blow when Strasburg and Harper eventually depart, because you've already signed your franchise outfielder
It's real interest, although I still think the Nationals are pretty heavy underdogs.
Ken
12:18
Any team that intends to have Walker, Paxton, and Karns in its starting rotation should probably have a better sixth man than Vidal Nuno, correct?
Jeff Sullivan
12:18
I think this is why they also picked up Bass but they're going to bring in some NRIs who might not blow
Jesse
12:20
Obviously prospects are tough to predict. But where is your gut on Dansby and how he ends up
Jeff Sullivan
12:20
Gut pushes me toward 3-win shortstop. Starting a year and a half or two years from now
HVC
12:23
Orioles need corner OF help, are cheap and have very few valuable assets. Cubs (reportedly) looking to continue adding to bullpen. Britton (3 years, ~$30 million) & Chance Sisco for Soler (5 years, $22 million) in the ballpark or do the Cubs immediately hang up?
Jeff Sullivan
12:24
Ken Giles got Vincent Velasquez+, and Velasquez has a lot of risk to him. Soler has his own risk, but it's a very different risk with I think some more real upside. Don't think the Cubs like this
Bret
12:26
The Jays have high-floor Ben Revere (~$6.7M), injury-risk Michael Saunders (~$2.9M) and unproven Dalton Pompey (minimum) as LF options. How should they sort this out? Keep the depth? Trade one for help elsewhere, and if so, who?
Jeff Sullivan
12:27
I don't think there's much of a trade to be made here. Seems like the route would be starting Revere, with Saunders as the backup and Pompey in Triple-A. If/when Saunders gets hurt or underachieves, then you've kept your depth.
12:28
Helpful that you don't need to worry about Saunders playing center, since Revere would also be Pillar's insurance
TheGreatBambEno
12:29
Gardner & Refsnyder = xxxx, xxxxx level SP?
Jeff Sullivan
12:29
Probably something like a No. 4 starter if he's under any sort of cost control for multiple seasons
mtsw
12:30
Given how the Chris Davis contract talks have developed, is it reasonable to assume the Orioles are much more interesting in appearing like they're trying to sign him than actually signing him?
Jeff Sullivan
12:30
I think the Orioles have genuine interest. With talks at this level it could just be about ownership even overriding what the front office wants
12:31
Worth wondering who the Orioles might actually be bidding against. At the moment I think the odds are he sticks around
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