Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 12/18/15
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Jeff Sullivan
9:25
Well Archer is under control forever, so it would be more like a consolidation of some of the farm. They're not going to trade a bunch for two years of a guy but Archer would be a long-term get. They can only *hope* their prospects turn into someone like him
Matt
9:26
If you're the Braves...Why not make a run at Longoria or Braun? They would be excellent compliments to Freeman, and form a great 3-4 punch to build around.
Jeff Sullivan
9:27
The Braves aren't looking to build around players who are 30+ years old
Especially when they know they're going to be pretty bad in 2016
Matty Bum
9:29
With all the flak AZ is catching, is it fair to compare the Samardzija trade (A's/White Sox) to the Miller trade? Shark was a better pitcher at the time, but it was for only one year. The haul he brought back (Semien/Phegley/Bassitt/Ravelo) is pretty much the definition of "not flashy," but would it really be surprising if that set of players outperformed the Braves' haul over their cost controlled years?
Jeff Sullivan
9:30
To be sure, the Braves' haul could under-perform, and I do think the A's haul for Samardzija has been a bit underrated. That's probably because of what they traded to get him in the first place. But the White Sox didn't sell an Inciarte. They didn't sell a Swanson. They sold peak-average players, while the Braves got some potential impact.
lunch
9:31
really, the highlight of the offseason has been bartolo colon staying in the national league. if we don't get to see bartolo hit, what's the point of anything, really?
Jeff Sullivan
9:31
Sometimes, when I get really deep into my own brain, I wonder why we try to analyze anything when all anyone really wants out of baseball is for Bartolo Colon to try to bat three times
pirates hurdles
9:32
So, Jason Rogers, crazy to think he could hold the fort down until Josh Bell? The Bucs have greater need in the rotation.
Jeff Sullivan
9:32
I think they could still cheaply sign a 1B and an SP. And in true Pirates fashion, those players would work out all right
9:33
Maybe the Pirates are no longer interested in Dae-ho Lee but he's an option who would cost just a few million
9:34
Like Rogers, though, Lee is right-handed
Justin
9:34
For Christmas, I got you Iwakuma for another couple years. YOU'RE WELCOME.
Jeff Sullivan
9:34
Yesterday was awesome
Sean C
9:34
Hey, I wrote a silly thing about Jorge and the caht bar and I compliment you in it so idk if you should read it but maybe if you wanted to... http://www.banishedtothepen.com/a-mystery-jorge-posada-and-the-fangraphs-search-bar/
Jeff Sullivan
9:34
Currently overtaken by Devon White!
Al
9:35
How many elite baseball players would you need to add to an otherwise average baseball team to match the effect of adding LeBron James to an otherwise average basketball team?
Jeff Sullivan
9:35
Off the top of my head: 3-4? I don't remember LeBron's win value. The worst part is I've written about this
Might be more like 4-5
Al
9:36
Please recommend one work of fiction and one work of non-fiction.

And have a great holiday!
Jeff Sullivan
9:37
Cannibal! The Musical, and Into The Silence
the former is pseudo-fiction
Aron
9:38
How do you see the Mariners roster shaking out now, assuming everyone is healthy going into the season?
Jeff Sullivan
9:39
I think the only real big issue is settling on a No. 5 starter between Paxton and Karns. And even there, it's not like you're stuck with the decision you make at the end of March. Depth is good to have. But with Iwakuma falling into the Mariners' lap, they *do* have trade options to explore if they're interested. Could be some chance they re-visit talks for Ozuna
j6takish
9:39
Jeff, in 5 years which current "hot" sabremetric issue will we look back on how wrong we were? Which current idea do you have the least amount of faith in?
Jeff Sullivan
9:40
My gut tells me we're missing something about framing. Maybe that's not very important. And we're overdue for a defensive overhaul. Shifts just do crazy things to the numbers and UZR and DRS have too many disagreements for the public to accept. When we have better defensive stats, the current defensive stats could look super primitive
9:41
At some point I think we'll also be less dismissive of legitimate hot streaks and slumps
Darragh
9:41
Think the Blue Jays land one of the top relievers? They were reportedly close on Petit, which makes me think they at least want to get someone in that range.
Jeff Sullivan
9:41
"top relievers" and "Petit" in the same comment!
9:42
Yes, I do think the do something to replace Hendriks
The Dude
9:42
Do you tend to trust Steamer of ZiPS more?
Jeff Sullivan
9:42
It's like UZR and DRS to me -- I'm somewhere around 50/50 or 55/45. I look forward to having them both.
I *like* Steamer more, but mostly because we have it all on the site already, unlike ZiPS, which we have to wait for
Cody
9:42
With Iwakuma resigned, do you think the M's can compete in the AL West?
Jeff Sullivan
9:43
They're not favorites, but maybe they're something like 5 wins off, which means they're in the mix
Meowmix
9:43
Will the skill of catcher framing become obsolete soon?
Jeff Sullivan
9:43
Obsolete, no, but I think we'll see decreasing gaps between the best and the worst in the league
Matty Bum
9:43
How did you get started backpacking? I am an experienced car camper but have never backpacked. I'm considering starting solo on a very easy trip, something like 5 miles out and back for 1 night. Good idea?
Jeff Sullivan
9:45
Definitely, start small just to get some experience. My first almost-backpack was overnighting on the way up Mt Adams. Taught me a lot about what gear I like and what gear I don't. From there things happened quickly, and when we booked a trip to Patagonia I realized I needed to learn how to backpack *well* within a matter of months. It's nice to feel some deadline pressure
As with anything, you learn fast at the start. Do it once and you'll be amazed how much easier it is the second time. I can't wait to resume
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