Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 12/2/16
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Jeff Sullivan
9:02
Hello friends
Welcome to Friday baseball chat
Bork
9:02
Hello, friend!
Jeff Sullivan
9:02
Hello friend
Matthew
9:02
Why are so few players throwing palmballs anymore? Are other pitches that much more effective?
Jeff Sullivan
9:03
Pretty sure it accomplishes similar things to the changeup and/or splitter
I don't have enough evidence to declare that one is better than the other, but I'll guess that a palmball loses more velocity than a changeup does, and pitchers still want the changeup to get in there pretty good, 8-12 ticks below the heater
Travis
9:03
Could the Braves getting all these veteran pitchers and still seriously looking at guys like Sale and Archer mean that they're maybe looking to move Teheran?
Jeff Sullivan
9:04
I was thinking just yesterday the Garcia addition could free them up to move Foltynewicz in, say, a Sale trade, but I don't believe it'll actually happen
9:05
More realistically, these are all one-year moves, and I think the Braves are just trying to reduce the pressure on the young arms. They get more low-pressure development time, which literally all of them need
Jimmy
9:06
Would you rather have a 20 year old prospect with a 4-win ceiling or a 24 year old prospect with a 2-war floow? I'm not sure how often prospects "pan out" and how that rate changes based on expected FV.
Jeff Sullivan
9:06
I definitely take the 2-WAR floor. I mean, with a 2-WAR floor, you could be talking about at least a 4-WAR ceiling, anyway. But maybe you mean more like a 2-WAR expectation?
9:07
I'm inclined to like certain league-average players. In order to prefer a younger prospect, I'd need to like the skillset. There's a lot of value in a cheap player who gives you two wins a season
Lars
9:08
If Mike Trout only had one year left on his contract at its current rate, what sort of trade return would he fetch from, say, the Red Sox? Or really any team you can come up with a hypothetical scenario.
Jeff Sullivan
9:09
So Trout's about to get $19.25 million
He's likely to be "worth" about $70 - 75 million
9:10
And then, after the year, he'd get a QO and he'd sign one of those deals for $50m+, so there's additional future draft pick value
9:12
I think, given all that, you could see him moved for Moncada, who is the game's No. 1 prospect. That might be a little too steep for Boston, but it's not unreasonable
If not that, he might get, say, Giolito + Robles from the Nationals
Aron
9:13
If Dipoto were ever to make a FA splash, would Rich Hill fit the bill? Low years, no loss of draft pick, win-now mode, projected for potential WC? Seems like Karns --> Hill would place them solidly in contention. Then again, I guess you could substitute 15 teams for the Mariners.
Jeff Sullivan
9:13
That's kind of the problem. Hill makes sense for like 25 different teams. So they're all going to bid him up to, I don't like, like $50 million over three years or something
9:14
It's worth noting that, while Dipoto has shown a tendency toward second- and third-tier additions, we don't know how he would operate if he weren't already hamstrung by the preexisting contracts on the books
Michelle
9:14
How late will you be today?
Jeff Sullivan
9:14
Barely at all this time!
And that's while typing with a cast on one of my hands
Playing through pain right here
Mac
9:15
What do you think of Adam Wainwright moving forward? Do you think he can improve on his numbers from last year?
Jeff Sullivan
9:16
I do think his stuff bounced back a little bit. I continue to see him as a No. 3, and quite possibly a No. 2. Still a good pitcher
Wigwam
9:16
Should the Padres trade Wil Myers? What would be a realistic return for him?
Jeff Sullivan
9:17
If Myers shows zero inclination to sign a long-term deal, then, yeah, the Padres should probably get out from under that. But the sense I get is the Padres need something to build around and Myers is their guy. I don't see a move happening
Coppy
9:17
What the hell am I doing? This is all mandated from ownership, right?
Jeff Sullivan
9:17
Most of your pitchers were terrible
PleaseTradeCutch
9:18
AZ looks to have 7 SPs with a rotation chance. Who among Miller, Shipley, Bradley, and Corbin has the best chance to round out spots 4 and 5?
Jeff Sullivan
9:19
Probably Miller and Corbin, but it's possible Corbin could end up in the bullpen. In reality, the DBacks are going to have pitchers get hurt or perform ineffectively, so all the starters and then some will be needed
Cam
9:19
What do you think about Dipoto's strategy of dealing prospects with potentially higher ceilings who are further away from the major leagues for higher floor, lower ceiling guys that are close to contributing? Or is that just a product of the current roster construction?
Jeff Sullivan
9:19
Part a product of the construction. Part overreacting to just the Alex Jackson trade. Part short-term priorities, where the Mariners need more certainty for 2017 and 2018
9:20
It's important to emphasize that many of the Mariners prospects have been awful. Jackson, for example, has perceived value because of what he was, but what he was isn't what he is at this point. Only his name has stayed consistent
Ronnie
9:20
Have you had a chance to watch either of Werner Herzog's volcano documentaries? If so are they as amazing as I am imagining them to be?
Jeff Sullivan
9:21
Tonight or tomorrow! Unless the damn Nationals ruin everything by making me write about Andrew McCutchen
Rob
9:21
If McCutchen is traded to Washington, would it make sense for the Pirates to make a play for Sale or Quintana? More depth to trade from in terms of prospects and an affordable ace.
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