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Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 12/21/18
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Jeff Sullivan
9:06
Hello friends
Welcome to Friday baseball chat
9:07
The baseball chat that interferes with my ability to write about this morning's three-team exchange!
AJ
9:07
Odds harper ends up in LA?
Jeff Sullivan
9:07
Based on nothing -- 40%?
Xolo
9:08
Did the Rangers just give Profar away?
Jeff Sullivan
9:10
I haven't had a chance yet to fully analyze every aspect of this deal, but remember that we're talking about two years of arb control over a non-elite player. Brock Burke is 22 years old and he was dominant in his limited Double-A action last summer. That's not a bad centerpiece at all
Lunch Break
9:11
Am I crazy, or was the Charlie Morton trade a total steal for the Rays, especially given contracts worth similar amounts for guys like Kelly, Familia, and Lynn? Of that group Morton had the best K/9, BB/9, xFIP, not to mention versatility, etc.
Jeff Sullivan
9:11
It's all about how much injury risk you're comfortable with. Morton probably isn't available to the Rays at that price had he not suffered late-season shoulder discomfort
9:12
Healthy Charlie Morton would be amazing for them, but they don't know for sure whether they'll be getting healthy Charlie Morton
Nick Mar - Cake is Good
9:14
Where do you think my namesake lands?  Where would he fit?
Jeff Sullivan
9:14
For so many reasons, the best fit is probably just returning to Atlanta
9:15
And with Michael Brantley off the board, that's a more realistic scenario now
Red
9:16
Hello, Jeff - want something way out of left field?

I'm looking at the 2006 draft right now because no life, and I noticed that the Diamondbacks picked two consecutive Cuban players in rounds 31 and 32, Osmany Masso (Pick #957, draft age 25) and Osbek Castillo (Pick #987, draft age 25).

I was under the impression that Cuban defectors are not draft eligible. What happened?
Jeff Sullivan
9:17
I'm reading about this right now
This got interesting fast!
"SPORTS AGENT ACCUSED OF PAYING FOR SMUGGLING OF CUBAN PLAYERS"
"For the same reason, pitcher Francisely Bueno was bumped from the Cuban Olympic team that summer. He and Turino had been teammates on Havana's powerful Industriales -- the Cuban version of the Yankees.

They joined other suspended defection risks -- Allen Guevara, Osmany Masso and Osbek Castillo -- boarding Medina's boat in the darkness off Matanzas."
9:20
Maybe this could explain the answer?
"Take for example the cases of Angels slugger Kendry Morales and highly regarded Atlanta Braves player Yunel Escobar -- both smuggled from Cuba around the same time.

Morales landed an agent and obtained Dominican residency -- approved by the baseball commissioner's office -- then negotiated a $10-million contract with a $3-million signing bonus. Escobar's agent, however, made no effort to gain foreign residency for his client, who wound up relegated to the 2005 draft and signed for about $475,000."
9:22
That's probably as much time as I should spend on this today
T
9:22
What is the age where you say, “no thanks” to a free agent reliever? I’ll admit it. I’m an ageist with this Andrew Miller situation.
Jeff Sullivan
9:23
I don't have a cutoff and neither should you
Fernando Rodney is 41 years old and he still throws 94 miles per hour
It's always always always a case-by-case basis
Jack
9:24
So the Jays gave Tulo all of the money that was left on his contract to go away so he wouldn’t be taking playing time away from Gurriel next year. Do you think they may do the same thing with Martin and/or Morales, whose presence on the team is blocking guys like Jansen, McGuire and Tellez? There’ve already been reports this offseason that they’d be willing to eat a lot of the money Martin’s owed in the final year of his contract to trade him
Jeff Sullivan
9:24
I think that Martin is a pretty obvious trade candidate, and he'll end up somewhere in a semi-regular role
9:26
And then Smoak and Morales are of course also available, and moving either one would clear space for Tellez. Although it's worth understanding Tellez wouldn't be hurt by another few months in Triple-A
9:27
I think the Tulowitzki case was particular, in that Tulowitzki didn't want to be a backup. The Jays finally just threw up their hands and cut bait
Roger
9:28
Seems like the Cardinals and Rays would match up well on something around Jose Martinez for Joey Wendle. Who’d need to add what to get it done?
Jeff Sullivan
9:29
I don't think you're far off from fair as a one-for-one, but the Cardinals already have Kolten Wong, and the more I look at Martinez the more I see he's a major defensive liability
9:30
As such I'm no longer convinced either team would be all that motivated
Nick Mar - Cake is Good
9:31
Is Brian Dozier cooked, or was that just an injury issue?
Jeff Sullivan
9:32
Don't think he's cooked, but he's cooking
9:33
I believe that the bone bruise made it more difficult for him to maintain his normal swing, but even at the best of times, Dozier needed to maximize his skillset to be an above-average hitter. It doesn't take much to knock 5-10 homers back to the track
He's declined a few straight seasons in terms of pulling balls in the air. I think he can be a league-average player in 2019, but it's all coming to a close
Ross
9:34
How do the White Sox expect to get Harper or Machado to agree to come play for them if they don’t blow everyone else’s offer out of the water, which they apparently aren’t willing to do? Do they really think the opportunity to play the first four months of a 10-year contract with his brother-in-law is going to sway Machado?
Jeff Sullivan
9:35
For all I know, it might come down to the White Sox maybe being the only team willing to go to, say, ten years
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