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Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 12/23/16
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Steve
10:01
Chances Joe Ross is the Nationals 3rd best SP this season?
Jeff Sullivan
10:01
Pretty good
Hank
10:02
Is there still more in Gregory Polanco's bat? It seemed like he had a few nagging injuries last season, but offensively, he appeared to really tap into the power.
Jeff Sullivan
10:03
There should be an opportunity for him to cut down on his strikeouts. He runs better-than-average contact rates. His swing is quick. He had a 128 wRC+ in the first half, and that's within his reach
Aaron
10:04
This is unlikely to happen, but doesn't a Javier Baez for Dodgers young pitching trade make a lot of sense? It's weird to me that no one is floating this with the Dozier trade a seeming inevitability.
Jeff Sullivan
10:04
There would be the framework of something there, but I wonder if the teams might be hesitant because they profile basically as pennant rivals. Psychologically it might be easier to find common ground with the Twins or Tigers
Barwin Darney
10:05
Is acquiring Bruce or Granderson + re-signing Bautista a reasonable course for the Blue Jays to take to finish their lineup off?
Jeff Sullivan
10:05
Depends how much they're willing to spend but that's not unreasonable
Jake
10:05
Do you see Abreu next year as closer to his first half 98 wRC+ or his second half 142?
Jeff Sullivan
10:05
Second half
Kristen
10:08
Happy holidays! How huge of a deal will Darvish get after 2017? Could he top David Price's 7-years + $217-million ?
Jeff Sullivan
10:09
I don't think Darvish will get quite that high, because of his elbow surgery. Price has never broken down like that. I think you're guided by the extension Strasburg signed with the Nationals. That was a huge contract for someone post-TJ, although Strasburg signed at a younger age than Darvish will
And, of course, those long-term contracts with the Nationals are always super complicated in structure. But it's a starting point. Darvish won't go hungry
_David_
10:11
The more we see what elite relievers get paid and paid for, does it become clear that either Dipoto knew something about Carson Smith, or there's a serious potential issue with his ability to gage the market?
Jeff Sullivan
10:11
Smith had one elite year, throwing 45% sliders. The market will forever be skeptical of the long-term value of a guy like that
Tanner
10:13
When I saw the news about the Inciarte extension, it struck me as relatively cheap, and it got me thinking about similar cheap extensions, eg Rizzo and Altuve. With cheap pre-arb extensions like those, are they more a reflection of a bad agent, an honest assessment of the risk involved with any player, or some combination of the two?
Jeff Sullivan
10:14
When Rizzo signed, he wasn't great yet. When Altuve signed, he wasn't great yet. I understand why there was certain urgency to accept money as it became available. But in these cases perhaps the representatives didn't adequately convey to the clients how much money they would already stand to make, even without an agreement
10:15
It's hard to judge in hindsight; we're biased now by the knowledge that Rizzo and Altuve are awesome. But young players could probably use a better understanding of how much they can earn in arbitration. It's more nerve-wracking to take it year to year, but it's the best way to maximize income
Sandy Alderson
10:15
Should I keep putting corner outfielders in Center for their offensive production and rely on my pitcher's high K-rates, or dump Bruce, free up some dough and go trade for McCutchen?
Jeff Sullivan
10:15
Then you'd still be putting a corner outfielder in center
Slamboni
10:16
Rangers miss (or don't try?) on Edwin, what's next for them?
Jeff Sullivan
10:16
I'm sure they've had conversations with Napoli's people
Chuncey Wiggins
10:17
It's Christmas. You run downstairs to take your stocking down from the fireplace. Which baseball player are you hoping is wearing the stocking?
Jeff Sullivan
10:17
Which baseball player do I hope is sitting patiently above my fireplace?
Fat Kenny G
10:17
If Clay Bucholz has a good first half, say 3.25 ERA, same FIP, 9k/9, 1.3 WHIP, what kind of package would the Phils get in a trade?
Jeff Sullivan
10:17
B-level prospect. He'd be useful to some contender, but he can't erase his reputation in three or four months
RMR
10:18
In your opinion is Quintana worth a headliner the caliber of Torres or Meadows (ignoring for a second what actually makes sense for the Yanks and Bucs)?
Jeff Sullivan
10:18
Yes
tommy lasagna, sr
10:19
shouldn't the dodgers just wait til the trade deadline and give up less for forsythe, instead of giving up de leon now for dozier?
Jeff Sullivan
10:19
Not that easy. What if the Rays are in contention?
Fat Kenny G
10:20
In a Reddit thread there was a post about the smartest play you've ever seen. What's yours?
Jeff Sullivan
10:21
This probably isn't *really* No. 1 but this is what just came to mind http://m.mlb.com/video/topic/6479266/v17585257
CoolWinnebago
10:23
Is it just me, or do early-career Edwin Encarnacion and present-day Maikel Franco not only have physical similarities, but also very similar statistical profiles?
Jeff Sullivan
10:23
Very similar statlines through age 23
But then, Encarnacion didn't become great until he was 29
mike sixel
10:23
Why trade Quintana if he has 5 years of control left, or am I recalling that wrong? Wouldn't you have to get a SP and a hitter, both with near certainty, to trade him? He's not some short termer, unless you have doubts about his ability to sustain success...
Jeff Sullivan
10:24
He comes with four extremely affordable years. However, with any pitcher, you can only count on short-term value. A long-term pitcher isn't really a long-term pitcher, because of the injury risk, and so the crucial years are the earliest ones. Those years now mean absolutely nothing to the White Sox, because they are bad
Lucas
10:25
Do you feel that the Rockies will truly trade an OF? The Desmond signing still makes no sense at this point.
Jeff Sullivan
10:25
I very genuinely do not believe I can tell you what the Rockies are doing
I think they're trying to just maximize their options. An outfielder trade is very possible, but not certain, by any means
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