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Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 12/8/17
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David
10:21
What probability do you set for each of Stanton's potential landing spots?
Jeff Sullivan
10:21
why won't this end
Nick
10:21
Are the Dodgers the favorite to land Stanton now? Seems like they have control.
Jeff Sullivan
10:21
argh
Zach
10:22
What's the (vaguely plausible) upper bound for Otani's single-season WAR?
Jeff Sullivan
10:23
Ohtani in 2016 was measured as about a 10-WAR player in Japan
10:24
Let's say that a realistically good Ohtani as a pitcher here would be 4-5 WAR. I'd put his realistic ceiling, then, around 6-7 WAR. He *could* exceed that, but I'd be shocked if he did
Lunar verLander
10:24
Did Dipoto make the trade to get the extra $1 million in international money, and the only way to get it was to take Dee Gordon as well?
Jeff Sullivan
10:24
Dee Gordon is good
Dipoto wanted the $1 million, but, Dee Gordon is also good
Jerry Dipoto
10:25
Am I done with position players for the offseason?
Jeff Sullivan
10:25
Looks that way, role players aside. Will probably get a veteran backup catcher
bawling in boulder
10:26
On a scale of 1-10, how bad is it that the Rockies stopped pursuing Ohtani around the GM meetings in mid-November?
Jeff Sullivan
10:27
If you have a strong sense you'll never get the guy, might as well move on to other concerns. I know there's the mathematical argument, that even a 1% chance at Ohtani would justify continued efforts, but Ohtani isn't some ball in a bingo machine. The Rockies probably estimated that their chances were effectively 0%
Arrgghhh Pirates
10:29
Soured on Meadows - or still think theres a Benintendi Comp in there?
Jeff Sullivan
10:29
Still 22. Missed a lot of time because of hamstring and oblique. Can't afford another lost season but Meadows retains plenty of promise
Xolo
10:30
Even if the Mariners land Ohtani, how big is their window? Dipo has been aggressive about emptying their farm system out.
Jeff Sullivan
10:31
You'd probably be looking at 2-3 years, or thereabouts. They will need some young players to emerge in the seasons ahead. Dipoto would be banking on farm-system rejuvenation naturally taking place while the team contends for the wild card. It can happen. But there's not much there
10:32
Also weighing on Dipoto, I bet, is that without a playoff appearance soon, he's out of a job
Lunar verLander
10:32
Tigers were 300-1 odds to win the world series before signing Fiers. Odds have to increase now, right?
Jeff Sullivan
10:32
in which direction
YKnotDisco?!
10:32
I wonder if all the wildfires in California could play a role in Ohtani's decision... Maybe giving Seattle, Texas and Chicago a slight advantage.
Jeff Sullivan
10:32
Yeah, Seattle definitely isn't overdue for a natural disaster
PTAP
10:33
You think the Marlins ownership is shedding cash for the *right* reason, i.e. to rebuild and spend later, or is this just an investment move? If the latter, has Loria's now past success at that put the league at risk of investment groups doing this more often in the future?
Jeff Sullivan
10:34
None of us have good access to the reality of the Marlins' financials. I want to give them the benefit of the doubt; I want to believe they intend to re-set and try to get going in a couple of seasons. I have been hurt before by my innate level of optimism
Kimball
10:35
Is it sort of weird that Dee Gordon learned he'd be asked to play CF basically at the same time we did?  Wouldn't Seattle want some assurance that he was interested and would put in work over the winter to learn the position?
Jeff Sullivan
10:35
I think that's just the chance they took. I don't know how the Mariners could've communicated with Gordon beforehand, without being accused of tampering
Joey
10:36
Do you think Stanton is just trying to make sure the Marlins get a bad deal for him just to spite them?
Jeff Sullivan
10:36
No, I think Stanton is holding out on what he considers a good deal for Stanton
toki
10:36
If the Mariners don't sign Otani what do they do with all the extra pool money?
Jeff Sullivan
10:36
Hell if I know
YKnotDisco?!
10:36
Would a hammer and nail be the most redundant Christmas present for Dipoto?
Jeff Sullivan
10:36
Phone charger
Five-hour energy bottles
Kevin
10:37
What is the Giants path back to contenders? Roughly the same team that made the playoffs and almost knocked off the Cubs in 2016.
Jeff Sullivan
10:37
Ohtani, an outfielder, and bounceback seasons from the obvious candidates like Cueto
Their future isn't in great shape, but I don't think the present is *that* bad
Sonny
10:38
Which of the remaining 7 teams is best positioned to use Ohtani is the most creative way? Am I wrong to think SD would put him in the OF and give him the green light on the bases?
Jeff Sullivan
10:38
None of the teams would want to put Ohtani at extra risk
Jack
10:38
White Sox, Padres, Braves. Who makes the playoffs first, who takes the longest to get there?
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