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Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 2/1/19
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Jeff Sullivan
9:05
Hello friends
Welcome to Friday baseball chat
San Diegan
9:06
Are the Padres signing Harper or Machado OR BOTH???
Jeff Sullivan
9:06
Not both!
Probably not one of them, either!
But their interest is legitimate. I assume they're going to end up priced out, but Machado is such an obvious fit that they might as well remain involved
HappyFunBall
9:06
Are the Reds trying to build the most averagest team ever?
Jeff Sullivan
9:07
If you can be a mostly average team, then you only need a small number of above-average performers to stay in contention
9:08
And with guys like Votto, Suarez, Puig, and Castillo, the top of their roster looks pretty interesting
AJ
9:09
I read a news article about a man being murdered with what  the article (I’m assuming) incorrectly said was a 10-pound Louisville Slugger. Could anyone actually make decent contact on a regular basis swinging a 10 pound stick?
Jeff Sullivan
9:09
Contact with a victim, yes
Contact with a pitched baseball, no
9:10
The average baseball bat is ~2 pounds
9:11
I don't think a bat could really be constructed to be all that much more dense
So you're talking about a bat with five times the volume(!!!). I guess you could be a good bunter!
stever20
9:12
do you think we're going to see the DL moved back to 15 days like there's talk of?
Jeff Sullivan
9:13
Depends how many teams have been annoyed by the Dodgers the last few years
I don't have a very clear sense of momentum on this issue. But it's also a minor issue, relatively speaking. In this day and age teams are probably more opposed than supportive
Johnny
9:14
Several weeks ago you mentioned Dave Cameron is enjoying his work with the Padres, though it’s a bit different than was expected. Can you elaborate, at least in general terms, how it’s different than expected?
Jeff Sullivan
9:14
So, obviously, I'm not at liberty to go into great detail here. But!
9:15
When you have a hire like Dave, I think you present a job description, but it's a job description with pretty huge error bars, so to speak. The point isn't so much to get Dave to fill a specific role -- the point is to get Dave, and then develop a role over time
9:18
Based on his strengths, he's in different communication from what he thought. He has different responsibilities. One could say more responsibilities. He is...very busy
Tim
9:19
At this point, do you think Edwin Encarnacion starts the season as a Mariner? Doesn’t seem to be much of a market for him
Jeff Sullivan
9:19
I don't know where he would go
9:20
He's an AL player with diminishing skills. He's mostly a DH. The competitive AL landscape is mostly set
9:21
Of course, one injury in spring training changes the picture. That might be how the next door opens
wolfs
9:22
What is Yasiel Puig this season? I find the ZiPS projection notably low (and the Richard Hidalgo player comp made me chuckle). Am I off base here?
Jeff Sullivan
9:24
Puig has a 120 wRC+ over his last thousand or so plate appearances. I don't think he'll ever be the model of consistency and there's a chance he'll be forced into playing CF, which he shouldn't, but he ought to be an above-average regular outfielder for the Reds
Pessimistic Brewers Fan
9:25
Will Wade Miley start spinning 3,000 RPM curveballs next year now that he's with the Astros and why would the Brewers or some other interested party not take a flyer for that cheap?
Jeff Sullivan
9:25
Miley in 2017: 128 ERA-, 106 xFIP-
Miley in 2018: 63 ERA-, 106 xFIP-
9:26
I know that he folded in a new cutter, and I know that he generated weak contact. But let's say some other team signed Miley instead. Let's say it was the Orioles or the Royals. Then we'd all shrug and say, welp, he's gonna regress pretty hard
9:28
It's interesting whenever you observe that kind of exceptional performance. I think the Astros might figure there could be something to throwing a bunch of cutters these days. Certainly worked for Anibal Sanchez. Astros might figure Miley has what it takes to serve as a cheap Keuchel replacement. But Miley has thrown a below-average rate of strikes for consecutive years. There's actual risk here he's going to be bad
Mark
9:29
Is the Indians current OF of Luplow, Martin, and Naquin the worst in baseball or just the worst of teams expected to finish over .500?
Jeff Sullivan
9:30
According to Steamer, the average outfield right now is projected for 7.3 WAR
The Indians are at 3.5
9:31
The bottom five teams:

Giants, 1.7
Royals, 3.5
Indians, 3.5
Orioles, 4.0
Marlins, 4.0
So: almost yes, and, yes!
Ross
9:32
Does Whit Merrifield’s contract with the Royals really eliminate him as a trade candidate? It didn’t really give them any more control, just locked in his salaries. Of course, he’ll at least start the season in KC, because signing someone to a contract like that and then trading them before they’ve played a game wouldn’t be a good look, but doesn’t this feel a bit like the contract the Padres signed Brad Hand to last year? No one really thought it meant he was staying in San Diego long term
Jeff Sullivan
9:32
The contract itself doesn't change Merrifield's trade status, but it does reflect the present reality of Merrifield's trade status -- that is, the Royals want to keep him around on account of his experience and leadership, to say nothing of his value
9:33
Ask the Royals right now, and they'd tell you they don't want to let Merrifield go. That's true at the moment. But circumstances are always changing. How the Royals feel about Merrifield today isn't necessarily going to be how they feel about him in five months
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