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Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 2/12/16
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Jeff Sullivan
9:32
I like it, and I've intentionally avoided reading any analytical articles or arguments because I don't want to be told not to like it
9:33
My hockey fanhood operates nothing like my baseball fanhood
and dammit it's going to stay that way
Bob
9:33
The AL has a DH every game. So why does WAR negatively effect
DH?
Jeff Sullivan
9:34
Designated hitters don't play defense
Saul
9:34
Is there any way to quantify "bad clubhouse guy" - thinking of negative value added by Latos, for example. Seems like a lot of people have said that chemistry happens when the team wins.
Jeff Sullivan
9:35
There's no good and clean way. I mean, over the course of a career, you could see how a guy's teams have done relative to preseason projections, but that folds in sooooooooooooo many variables
9:37
An alternate approach would be to find a selection of "bad clubhouse guys" and see how they've been paid, relative to expectations. Latos is clearly being underpaid given the pitching market, and that seems like a reflection of his perceived personality. But how do you identify bad clubhouse guys? Not many out there like Latos
Kim
9:38
How is the international draft/signing system "broken" as people have been claiming, and how might they fix it? Ask the Dodgers to please stop signing all of the good Cuban players?
Jeff Sullivan
9:38
The spending limitations in place haven't functioned like spending limitations at all so big-spending teams are throwing resources out there while smaller-market teams are having trouble competing, or not even trying
9:40
Their dream scenario is the international draft, but if that's a ways away and if they want to preserve something like the status quo for now, they need stronger restrictions, and maybe bigger spending pools
Davecat
9:41
Iglesias or Desclafani going forward?
Jeff Sullivan
9:41
Iglesias by a little but I like them both as big-league starters
Guest
9:42
Vegas win totals came out yesterday, and SF has the most at 90 (!!!). Are the people in Vegas really buying into the whole even year BS? I almost can't even fathom the idea that a bunch of fanboys are responsible for setting lines that impact millions and millions of dollars.
Jeff Sullivan
9:42
I don't know why the Giants would be ranked above the Cubs, but it's easy to see how the Giants could be a really good baseball team this year
9:43
The infield is outstanding and then you've got excellent chances for rebound seasons from Span/Cueto/Samardzija
Who cares?
9:43
What's the big deal about pitchers and catchers reporting? Spring training is only very marginally less shitty than the rest of the off-season....
Jeff Sullivan
9:44
I'm actually mostly in your corner, but for other people it's symbolic. People love symbols
Matt
9:45
How would that Kemp to the A's trade work? The Padres, I assume, would have to cover a pretty significant portion of the contract, and even then I can't imagine the A's would surrender any big prospects.
Jeff Sullivan
9:46
Padres send Kemp and money, A's send Butler and a low-level prospect or two, Padres immediately dump Butler, Padres PR tries to emphasize the prospects' strengths
It would be a dump the Padres try to push as something otherwise
GnG
9:46
Why would the Padres try and trade Kemp to the A's?
Jeff Sullivan
9:46
Why would they try to keep Kemp on the Padres?
Bork
9:46
Here's an interesting one - Joey Votto a HoFer?
Jeff Sullivan
9:47
The odds are against it -- he needs more seasons like the last one. He's positioned to age all right, and the voting pool will be younger and more progressive by the time he's up for election, but right now I'd say it's more unlikely than likely
Covelli
9:49
Jeff, it took me an embarrassingly long time to cognitively distinguish between the surnames Sullivan and Zimmerman. I apologize for all the questions about Quick Looks and the Mash Report. So, here's a question for you, who is more dominant at their chosen craft Wade Davis Pitcher or Wade Davis Ethno-Botanist?
Jeff Sullivan
9:49
Wade Davis Ethno-botanist. Wade Davis Pitcher needs to string a bunch more years of this together to stand a chance
9:50
I somewhat recently finished Davis' Into The Silence (about Everest, Mallory, etc). Wonderful book!
whay
9:50
Have you ever gone to Spring Training in person? Worth it?
Jeff Sullivan
9:51
Everyone says it used to be more worth it, when it was cheaper and more low-key, but I never attended spring training before it sold out. It's okay and I'm not heartbroken that we don't have a company trip to Arizona next month. It's not going to leave you bankrupt so it would be a fun weekend trip with the right company. But don't go down there expecting to be blown away by incredible baseball action. It's mostly about relaxation and sunshine
Full disclosure: I really don't like going to Phoenix
GnG
9:52
Why would the A's EVER consider getting Kemp from the Padres?
Jeff Sullivan
9:52
The A's get to play with a DH and the Padres don't
John Nash
9:52
Liked your Dickerson piece. Did it strikes you as a bit out of character for a team like the Rays, that usually plays it's cards close to the vest and is always looking to exploit information asymmetry, to announce in the media a team-wide shift in hitting approach? If the back and forth adjustments of hitters and pitchers is all just an extended exercise in game theory, do you see an advantage to be gained by publicly announcing a change in approach like that?
Jeff Sullivan
9:54
It was definitely out of character for the Rays to just broadcast how they changed, so I figure *they* figure it was going to be obvious anyway. Opponents would've noticed in a hurry; it's not like it's a particularly subtle thing, and since it's also sort of a league-wide adjustment it's not Rays-specific. This isn't a team exploiting an inefficiency. This is a team and a league responding to a change within the game, brought on by pitching dominance
Davecat
9:54
Do you think Mesoraco returns to 2014 form?
Jeff Sullivan
9:54
Not that good, but I expect him to be strong. Forgotten player
j6takish
9:55
You didn't ask about him in your poll, but cole hamels has never had a 5 WAR season, has only posted a sub 3 era twice and wasn't even the best pitcher on his own team for most of his career. He is widely considered to be an "ace"
Jeff Sullivan
9:55
He's had six 5-WAR seasons by runs instead of FIP. I think he deserves credit for that. He's not a conventional, overpowering ace, but he's been so good for so long I don't disagree with the label
9:56
For me he's more Bumgarner-ace than Kershaw-ace. Which implies a hierarchy of aces. But you might just prefer fewer aces and that's fine
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