JotCast | Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 2/15/19

Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 2/15/19

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Jung Bong Jovi

9:33

Craig Kimbrel spotted in Orlando! He's re-joining the Barves right?

Jeff Sullivan

9:34

My first thought was "IMG Academy" but at least according to this map I'm looking at, it's much closer to Tampa

9:35

The Braves do make a ton of logical sense, but there's also at least a 40-50% chance the trip and Kimbrel's free agency are not connected

Erik

9:35

The "We can't let pitchers hit because they might get injured" argument has always struck me as disingenuous. If we were truly worried about pitchers getting injured, wouldn't we stop them from, you know, pitching? I believe it's an argument you agree with, though, so could you explain why you think it's compelling?

Jeff Sullivan

9:36

I don't think it's *the* reason for a universal DH, but it's just one of them. Turn it around: if pitchers are already subjecting themselves to something so potentially damaging, what's the sense in increasing the injury risk even more? And all for the sake of making them do something they're bad at

tom

9:37

is a bowl of cereal a soup? why or why not?

Jeff Sullivan

9:37

No, tom. Get out of here

Xolo

9:37

What’s your take on the extensions Nola and Severino signed? Seem kinda light

Jeff Sullivan

9:37

Yep

9:38

It's also worth remembering that so much of this is based on contract precedent, and when you base on contract precedent, it's hard to push for inflation

Precedent is all well and good, but an extension signed four or five years ago was signed in a different revenue environment

Guest

9:39

Now you have to rewrite all of the words you wrote about Nola into a Severino article!

Jeff Sullivan

9:39

Probably time to start charting how many extensions buying out FA years we've seen over the past decade or so

Mike

9:39

Would small-market NL clubs be the biggest opponents to adopting the DH? Another player that they have to pay.

Jeff Sullivan

9:40

Adding a DH doesn't change the roster size. It just changes the roster makeup. Small-market clubs aren't the clubs ending up with Albert Pujols on the payroll

scooter262

9:42

Jeff, can you provide any insight into why BP has Yankees 7 games better than the Red Sox, while most other projections I've seen -- including FG -- have them within a game of each other.

Jeff Sullivan

9:43

So, both Steamer and PECOTA put the Yankees at 96 wins. But where Steamer has the Red Sox at 97, PECOTA has them at 89

9:44

It looks like PECOTA is simply lower on certain players, like Xander Bogaerts, JBJ, and David Price

9:45

BP uses its own numbers, like, for example, DRC+. It makes sense that their numbers and ours wouldn't always see eye-to-eye

Kristen

9:46

Can't help thinking Nola and Severino really sold themselves short with their extensions.

Jeff Sullivan

9:46

Kepler is the one that really gets me. I can at least understand why pitchers would want to get what they can when they can

9:47

I haven't done all the research yet, but I'm working on a theory that pitchers should either have a higher minimum salary, or they should reach arbitration eligibility sooner. My gut feeling is that pitchers get taken advantage of more than position players do

2-D

9:48

As a fan, is it harder to go through a rebuilding period of a NHL or MLB team?

Jeff Sullivan

9:48

I want to say MLB. Not only is hockey more unpredictable -- draft picks can be ready sometimes for NHL play almost immediately, which provides for a fair amount of optimism

Ron

9:50

The universal DH dilemma seems to have a maddeningly perfect solution. Each team chooses the position that they want to use the DH. Good hitting pitchers retain their value, while it can potentially be a job creator by giving an all-glove SS or catcher a
job. Ohtani & McKay types would have huge value. What is the downside to this? The upsides seem enormous.

Jeff Sullivan

9:51

Since 2008, 192 pitchers have batted at least 100 times. Here are the top five in wRC+:

1. Micah Owings, 85 wRC+
2. Carlos Zambrano, 83
3. Zack Greinke, 52
4. Wade LeBlanc, 49
5. Daniel Hudson, 49

They all suck. Every team would just about always use the DH for the pitcher, and we'd end up where we already think we're going

9:53

I saw a suggestion I liked the other day. I haven't yet thought it all the way through, but it tied the DH specifically to the starting pitcher. So, when the starter comes out, the DH comes out. It has its downsides, but it would be a convenient way to preserve some sense of strategy while also ensuring that starters aren't completely killed off

Chapultepec

9:54

How much is positional versatility actually worth to the typical team? In other words how much better off would a team be with Marwin Gonzalez instead of a similar caliber hitter/fielder who can only play 2nd or 3rd?

Jeff Sullivan

9:55

It's good. I don't have a number for it. But especially now, with bullpen sizes inflating, you want more versatility than ever. It allows you to play matchups and it makes it easier to give more guys rest. Marwin being shortstop-capable increases his price tag a few million dollars per season

Crazy Sammi Meatballs

9:55

What are your thoughts on strength of division? I mean, there are teams that do benefit from playing the weakest teams in the league so many times. At the very least, their chances for a wild card goes up exponentially. Just take the Ruth division in NGNL as a case in point, right?

Jeff Sullivan

9:57

The schedules are unbalanced. Some divisions are tougher than others. Last year's Indians got to benefit from playing a whole bunch of pushovers all the time. It can make a difference of a few wins a season. It's usually not a huge factor, but it absolutely does come into play

mmddyyyy

9:59

When does a player join the mlbpa?

Jeff Sullivan

9:59

I believe the answer is when a player is placed on the 40-man roster (or the injured list)

"All players, managers, coaches and trainers who hold a signed contract with a Major League club are eligible for membership in the Association. In collective bargaining, the Association represents around 1,200 players, or the number of players on each club's 40-man roster, in addition to any players on the disabled list."

psweeting

10:00

Any chance we see more creative approaches to arbitration in this new market? Say a player agreeing to 2 years of arbitration at league minimum in exchange for hitting free agency a year earlier?

Jeff Sullivan

10:00

Pretty sure you can't do that

Post Malone

10:01

Chances either MM or BH isn’t signed by opening day?

Jeff Sullivan

10:01

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