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Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 2/16/18
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Jeff Sullivan
9:02
Hello friends
Welcome to Friday baseball chat
Bork
9:02
Hello, friend!
Jeff Sullivan
9:02
Hello friend
Fredrick
9:02
Hi Jeff! Do you know when the pre-season Depth Chart prjections will be updated to include ZiPS? Also, do you know if steamer or ZiPS has taken into account the new humidor at chase field?

Thanks
Jeff Sullivan
9:02
Can't imagine the projections will adjust themselves for the humidor
9:03
As for when ZiPS will arrive, I don't have a specific date, but the last few years everything has been folded in by the beginning of March, and I think this year ZiPS is slightly ahead of schedule
Jack
9:03
Toronto’s chances of keeping Stroman past his team control years don’t seem very good, given they’ve already had to go to arbitration in both years he’s been eligible so far and he tweeted he’ll “never forget” the things they said about him at the hearing. He’s also apparently on bad terms with Aaron Sanchez for whatever reason now, who used to a very close friend of his, and how thin skinned he is and how he’s constantly taking everything as a slight against him sounds like it’s starting to wear on some people with the team. If the Jays aren’t contending this year, do you think they look to move him? He’s a good pitcher, but he doesn’t seem likely to stick around long term, and he also seems like a bit of a headache
Jeff Sullivan
9:04
First things first -- I don't think these situations really end up having long-term impacts, most of the time. Arbitration can be ugly, but when Ben Lindbergh has looked into this in the past, he hasn't found that players who go through arbitration are more likely to leave
9:05
Players and teams have relationships for a while. Relationships involve disputes. It happens; Stroman would still feel some kind of internal loyalty toward the club and his teammates
Now that all being said, it's not hard at all to see Stroman becoming available in July if the Jays are out of it. Of course, that depends on how badly they're out of it, and on how Stroman has performed, but he could be their own version of Chris Archer or whatever
Vargas, baby, Vargas
9:06
who is the odd man out in nym rotation? Matz, Wheeler or too early to tell?
Jeff Sullivan
9:06
Too early to tell for now, but, very obviously, the Mets are going to need more than five starters anyway
9:07
Matz is coming back from surgery. Wheeler is coming back from his own health problems, which followed surgery. The Mets' actual opening-day rotation doesn't mean much of anything to me beyond Syndergaard and deGrom
Old Man Manny
9:08
Anything the Dodgers, Astros, or Cubs can do before Opening Day that would significantly increase their odds of winning the World Series?
Jeff Sullivan
9:09
Cubs are presumably finished with the big stuff after Darvish. The Astros could go get, say, Realmuto. Or the Dodgers could get someone like Archer. Wouldn't move the odds more than a percentage point or two, but those are impact moves that remain possible
Tater
9:11
With the Vargas and Cashner signings, can we say that ~180 average-ish, low upside innings is worth roughly 8M in free agency?  That definitely seems cheaper than in years past...
Jeff Sullivan
9:11
Vargas is coming off a 112 xFIP-. Cashner, 121. I know that Vargas had a great April and Cashner had a low ERA, but I don't think either one of these guys can rightly be considered average-ish. They're fringe starters
9:12
A year ago, Travis Wood got 2/$12m
9:13
Jason Hammel got 2/$16m
9:14
Hammel and Vargas presented similar cases, so they've received similar contracts
Ben
9:14
Jaime Garcia, Vargas or Cashner? Do you like any of these deals more or less then the others?
Jeff Sullivan
9:15
Somehow Garcia got the smallest contract of the three while being the best pitcher
I know he has a bumpy health history, but so do the other two
Matt
9:17
hey Jeff. Thoughts on the Jason Vargas deal?
Jeff Sullivan
9:17
At least Andrew Cashner is analytically interesting
9:18
The value in Vargas isn't really about Vargas, in a way; it's about the reliability of innings. Having him around means fewer innings might have to go to zeros, even if Vargas is just a one or a two
Bork
9:18
Will Cashner save the O's?
Jeff Sullivan
9:18
He'll actually cost the O's! Sixteen million dollars!
Ross
9:20
Why has Sergio Romo had to settle for small one-year deals in back-to-back offseasons? He has a long history of being an effective reliever, a 2.69 ERA and 2.88 FIP over a 10-year career, lots of postseason experience and success if you care about that sort of thing. He was going through a rough stretch as a Dodger with balls flying out at an insane rate against him, but that corrected itself after he was traded to the Rays and then he got back to being very good. Seems like someone the Nationals, or even the Giants, should’ve signed at that price, no? They’re probably just gonna end up looking to trade for a guy like that at the deadline
Jeff Sullivan
9:22
I like Romo enough because he still misses bats, but these days he tops out in the mid-80s and teams feel like they have to be careful not to show him too many lefties. He's unusual and he's kind of a specialist, so teams just aren't willing to give him multiple years at a time
This is where Steve Cishek will end up in a couple of seasons
Lou
9:23
The Dodgers value depth and probably don't like the idea of spending $20 mil for zero return on the field, are the chances Matt Kemp makes the Opening Day roster getting better?
Jeff Sullivan
9:24
I think what's changed here is the urgency. The Dodgers are like $17 million under the luxury tax. Before Darvish signed with the Cubs, you could easily see why the Dodgers would want to shed Kemp's salary. But now -- what would they be clearing for? They're not going to sign Arrieta or Hosmer. They don't seem to need that flexibility
9:26
I don't think the Dodgers actually like or want Matt Kemp, in particular. But now they have even less reason to package a good young player along with him in a salary dump. They just don't need it like they might've before. So for that reason alone, Kemp's chances of making the roster are higher than they were, since they were about 0%
Even if Kemp does make the team, though, I don't think he lasts very long
manse gray
9:27
There is talk that a team desperately! needs! a power hitter, yet that team won 90+ games with its particular combination of pre-game preparation, pitching, defense, offense, baserunning, in-game management, and luck and despite the below average overall players' performance by offensive statistics and advanced metrics and, by some accounts, despite clubhouse dysfunction.  Wouldn't the expected current year win total be similar, given: all players return;  positive and negative regression (including factors for age and injury) of those players and of their current season scheduled opponents (who may have added or subtracted players) while controlling for the difference in inter-league opponents and luck?
Jeff Sullivan
9:27
The Red Sox are very good
9:28
I don't think they're quite as good as the Yankees, but this is an excellent baseball team. There's a fair offer out there for J.D. Martinez, but if it's not good enough for him, the Sox can survive. They'll be great for three and a half months, then they can try to trade for whatever else they might need
David Price is the huge question mark. Wouldn't surprise me at all if, in a few months, they need a pitcher more than they need a hitter
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