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Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 2/16/18
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Jeff Sullivan
10:25
Like, Salazar is already behind. The bullpen has gotten thinner, etc
But really this comes down to me trying to project good and bad health. The Dodgers look a little more vulnerable, too, given how their starting depth has thinned out
Q-Ball
10:25
Why do the Brewers projections seem consistently low?  (78 wins right now).  Do we believe the projections, or is there something they are not accounting for?
Jeff Sullivan
10:26
ZiPS likes them considerably more than Steamer does. I wish that we could have ZiPS all year long, so that situations like this wouldn't happen
AC
10:26
With the variability in projections, and the possibility that super teams can still miss WS wins, could the new trend be for teams to try to build 82-Win teams and try to sustain that over a long period of time, while hoping a few things break in their favor every few years?
Jeff Sullivan
10:27
That's kind of been, say, the Pirates/Rays/A's model
And I think, at least anecdotally, we've observed two disparate trends in the wild-card era. At first, when we had a second wild card, it felt like teams were just trying to get to 85 wins. Now it seems like they're trying to get to 95 wins. It's going to be cyclical; there won't always be so many great teams as right now
Foodie Estevao
10:28
Here is my list of the best things to put on a hot dog, in descending order of necessity:  mustard, dill relish, sport peppers, tomatoes, celery salt, pickle, onions.  Thoughts?
Jeff Sullivan
10:28
Good hot dog
But if you're trying to get me to insult the ketchup crowd, you're going to fail, because I don't care how people eat
10:29
Sure, some people eat in ways that I find personally disgusting, but some people root for the Maple Leafs. Doesn't mean I can't still get along with them
Matt
10:30
Remember all those stories about how sign-language interpreters at large events didn't actually know sign language? Any chance there is a similar explanation for the entire health staff for the Mets?
Jeff Sullivan
10:30
Every single medical professional working for the Mets has been a secret agent who had to gain access into the ballpark by wearing a costume they found on a hanger outside
PTBNL
10:31
True or False: Manny Machado is an Oriole on 8/1/2018.
Jeff Sullivan
10:31
I'll go with false
Hannah Hochevar
10:31
Eno says Cashner suffers from where he releases the ball re effective velo and spin, but wouldn't all that have been true during his good years too?
Jeff Sullivan
10:31
Cashner suffers from his pitches not being good enough
Chuck-it
10:32
Is the Jays offense really going to be right there with the Indians and Red Sox for runs?
Jeff Sullivan
10:32
I don't think so
Ramirez
10:33
Jeff how much of the Pham breakout do you buy? Seems to me he's a legitimate 20/20 .275 guy. Chance he can be more? Seems to be training hard in offseason.
Jeff Sullivan
10:33
I buy him as a 4-win player more than I buy him as a 6-win superstar
Anthony
10:33
Could the Phillies jump in on Moustakas? He seems an upgrade over Franco, and it's not impossible to see a WC contender, right?
Jeff Sullivan
10:35
While I think the Phillies are in a decent position, and while I think Moustakas is indeed better than Franco, it's still hard to see a move like this happening, with Franco still young. He'd be directly blocked at a sensitive time in his development
10:36
If Franco has an option remaining, I guess you could send him to Triple-A for a season, but the more likely path, I think, is that the Phillies bring in a starter instead
mmddyyyy
10:37
If he had to choose today, would Stanton opt out in 2 years?
Jeff Sullivan
10:38
Today, Stanton probably wouldn't be all that excited about the prospect of being a free agent
Craig
10:38
Why would a minor league free agent sign with a team like the Yankees or dodgers as opposed to with the Marlins or Tigers for a better opportunity?
Jeff Sullivan
10:38
Sometimes teams like the Yankees simply offer more money
10:39
But you're right in that generally speaking minor-league free agents with ambitions will target organizations where they feel like they aren't blocked
Polonia's choice
10:40
Where are you on Brandon Maurer? Is he one tweak away from becoming Tommy Kahnle?
Jeff Sullivan
10:40
I'm not sure there's ever been anyone worse at pitching with runners on base
Career .283 wOBA with the bases empty, .384 with runners on. FIP gap of 3.16 and 4.98
10:41
I don't know if that's mental or related to pitching from the stretch, but Maurer *has* to figure that out
mmddyyyy
10:41
Would Kershaw put up better numbers as closer than Jansen?
Jeff Sullivan
10:41
No. Numbers better than Jansen's basically cannot exist
botchatheny
10:42
more likely to win cy young: wainwright or mikolas?
Jeff Sullivan
10:42
uhhhh
Wainwright
he hasn't lost all that much stuff since 2014
Coz
10:42
Do you foresee any of the big name free agents signing after opening day?
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