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Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 2/21/18
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Jeff Sullivan
10:46
I also don't think he's much better than Bird
gcarter
10:47
Thoughts on Matt Bush as a starter?
Jeff Sullivan
10:47
I'm always interested in these conversions, but I'm also usually skeptical. Don't know how much velocity Bush is going to lose, and last season he was far from unhittable in the bullpen
Colin
10:48
Is there any evidence that a player who switches leagues in the offseason performs worse the following year?
Jeff Sullivan
10:48
Not that I know of
Chaco Chicken
10:49
Is the Toba Supereruption the Barry Bonds of volcanic ejecta?
Jeff Sullivan
2-D
10:49
Do you still share an optimism for the forgotten Cody Anderson?
Jeff Sullivan
10:49
It's still in there, but I have to see how he looks post-TJ
10:50
Just saw that the Rays have signed Carlos Gomez to a one-year contract
Gomez just posted a 110 wRC+. Souza, 120
10:51
Gomez is a little bit worse than Souza is, and he's a little more injury-prone, but in general profile, Gomez and Souza are very similar. I like this
Rays add Banda and Solak and two PTBNLs, and they only slightly downgrade in the present
Plus, Gomez will cost more than Souza this year!
Marty
10:52
Is it now more difficult to gain a competitive advantage using sabermetrics than it was 5 years ago?  Are we close to, and what does, post-sabermetric baseball look like?  If not (close), what do you think are the "new frontiers"?
Jeff Sullivan
10:52
Definitely far more difficult than ever. The current or next frontier involves applying sabermetrics to player development. We have all these tools that indicate how good players are. How can teams use those tools to help players improve? That's where the bulk of the focus is today
JD
10:52
Over/Under 25 HR for Ryan Braun this season?
Jeff Sullivan
10:53
I'll say under, just because right now I'm not sure he gets enough plate appearances. Crowded roster
toki
10:53
Why does MLB feel the need to bring time into baseball?  Part of Baseball's beauty is in the fact that it is event based not time based.
Jeff Sullivan
10:53
But baseball has also been getting slower. People say they don't want baseball to change. Well, baseball has already *been changing*. And even if it's not a problem now, what if games added another 15-20 minutes? At some point you have to intervene
John
10:53
Has a topical post of yours ended up having worse timing than the Rays one yesterday?
Jeff Sullivan
10:54
I don't think it'll look too bad. Same idea applies to swapping Souza and Gomez. This team is not tanking
Big Cheese
10:54
What do you think the likelihood of further big trades before opening day are?
Jeff Sullivan
10:54
Fairly high!
Forrest
10:54
What do you think the Diamondbacks outfield rotation is going to be like this year?
Jeff Sullivan
10:54
Peralta/Pollock/Souza, with Dyson playing a few times a week
Drew
10:55
Is it bad if I'm a Yankees fan and I didn't know who Chris Drury was until today?
Jeff Sullivan
10:55
Well no, because Chris Drury is a retired NHL forward
Granted, one who played for some years in New York
Dingers!
10:56
Better chance at a 2018 resurgence, Kyle Schwarber (best shape of his life) or Jason Heyward (probably made swing adjustments again?)?
Jeff Sullivan
10:56
Schwarber
Jake
10:56
On Whitley...I read that his story was his friend gave him something one night to help him stay awake on a long drive. What are the chances it was just adderall or something? Can't imagine smoking weed in order to stay awake
Jeff Sullivan
10:57
I haven't seen that since I'm actively chatting, and in cases like this players often don't tell the whole truth, but unless Whitley has an actual, destructive substance-abuse problem, I don't think this is going to matter
gump
10:58
What do you make of the huge WAR disparity on Souza between FG, BP, BR? The lower 2017 WARs help make his 2018 projection seem more reasonable, but hard for me to understand how much regression FG and BR have to have
Jeff Sullivan
10:58
FG WAR: 3.7. BR WAR: 4.2. Nothing major there
George
10:58
Any possibility the Drury trade turns out to be a repeat of the Didi situation and the Yankees get a true steal?
Jeff Sullivan
10:58
Some possibility, sure, but the Yankees acquired Didi to be a long-time regular. They still figure Torres and Andujar will be their long-term regulars at second and third
Craig
10:59
Odds JDM opts out?
Jeff Sullivan
10:59
At this point I'd put them a little above 50%
Chaco Chicken
10:59
Where might Jonathan Lucroy land? Should the Nats consider him?
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