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Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 2/26/16
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Jeff Sullivan
11:02
Better question: how important is it, really, if Baltimore actually is a little worse off in the free-agent marketplace?
11:03
The worst deals come out of the free-agent marketplace
EC
11:03
Is it possible that Scherzer ages really well given his lack of much injury history and the fact that he's gotten better over each of the past few years?
Jeff Sullivan
11:03
It also helps that his average fastball last year was the same speed as his average fastball when he was a rookie
No signs of decline yet
The Dude of NY
11:04
Is there anything interesting about Aaron Brooks, or is he just some guy the Cubs got in a salary dump?
Jeff Sullivan
11:04
Wrote a little bit yesterday but I think Aaron Brooks is almost Kyle Gibson. Needs a little more polishing, but then, so did Gibson
Justin
11:04
Hi Jeff, who are your "breakout" players this year?
Jeff Sullivan
11:05
I don't have a master list. I like how much Paxton has talked about high fastballs. I like what happened with Shelby Miller's repertoire. Just wrote about Carlos Rodon. I don't really know how to evaluate potential offensive breakouts
11:06
I was thinking about this just the other day. How often are breakouts really preceded by indicators? What was there to make us think Jose Bautista could explode? Corey Kluber?
mtsw
11:07
Is there an Ethier to the Orioles trade that makes sense? Dodgers are running out of time to unload him before he gets 10/5 rights
Jeff Sullivan
11:07
Not sure if those rights are really that much of an obstacle; a player will be pretty open to getting traded if he isn't playing often enough
11:08
But Ethier still has something of a role on a good team. Bruce is on a bad team, and he's obviously available, so that's the easier fit to see
Pretty Tony
11:08
Jeff, it seems like the AL Central could be crazy competitive this year. You could make a case for every team to come out on top (might have to squint a bit for the Twinkies). Chicago again goes stars and scrubs, Cleveland may not be able to hit anything out of the infield but pitching and D is very good, Royals are Royals, and the Tigers have reloaded and finally (maybe) addressed their bullpen. Who ya got?
Jeff Sullivan
11:08
Indians by a little ,but I love this division
Gavin
11:09
Which teams do you expect are most and least likely to exactly match their projections? There's been plenty of discussion about how wide the range of possible outcomes is for the Red Sox, do any others come to mind?
Jeff Sullivan
11:09
I could see the Blue Jays blowing their projection out of the water
11:10
And I think the Giants are better. I think the Reds projection is practically fate, on the other hand. One way or another I expect them to end up with exactly 73 wins.
mtsw
11:12
Any truth to the idea that Fowler would've been more valuable to the Orioles than to other lineups due to providing things they lack (high OBP, not RH, can lead off)?
Jeff Sullivan
11:13
I believe research has actually shown the opposite, that if you have a low-OBP lineup, it's slightly more valuable to add another low-OBP, high-SLG type
but the differences are small and almost negligible
Ross
11:16
Gun to your head are the Mariners buyers or sellers at the deadline?
Jeff Sullivan
11:17
They'll probably just hang tight. Maybe buy a reliever or something. But they should be one of several teams right around .500
The Dude of NY
11:18
Is it possible that teams are so loathe to lose a draft pick, Ian Desmond is unable to sign anywhere?
Jeff Sullivan
11:18
I mean, he'll sign *somewhere*. Some chance it doesn't happen until after the draft but after what we saw with Morales and Drew, Desmond should be highly incentivized to not let that happen
11:19
Maybe he prices himself low enough Colorado can't say no after they find out how long they'll be without Reyes
Ross
11:19
Who puts up more WAR this year for the Mariners Marte or Martin?
Jeff Sullivan
11:19
Martin
Manny
11:20
Is Dayton Moore a savvier GM than people gave him credit for, or did he just have a string of bad moves work out unexpectedly well?
Jeff Sullivan
11:22
Dayton Moore has had a lot tied up in drafting and player development. Those are notoriously difficult things to analyze, and we pretty much just have to lean on results-based analysis. When the player development worked, the Royals worked. I don't actually know who deserves the most credit for that
mtsw
11:22
How does the readership change for Fangraphs in-season vs out-of-season? Obviously there's a lot more going on when baseball is actually happening but FG readers seem way more interested than most in following year round
Jeff Sullivan
11:22
The winter meetings are always insane, and it sort of helps us that the MLB offseason is so atypically spread out. I think the FanGraphs audience in particular is drawn to transaction analysis and contract discussions and so forth. The offseason really is sort of like the second season for baseball nerds
11:23
Offseason traffic is down, for sure, but there's always a big audience
Phillies113
11:23
If you could replace the baseball with any other sports ball, which would you choose? For the purposes of this question, you can consider hockey pucks too, even though they are not balls.
Jeff Sullivan
11:23
Hockey pucks
11:24
So interested to see what that pitching would be like
Sal
11:24
Have you ever thought about taking a page from https://nomadlist.com/ and working remotely for a stretch of time?
Jeff Sullivan
11:24
Yes, but it's a lot more difficult when you live with someone who doesn't have a similar job
Phil A. Delphia
11:25
of the "veteran" pitchers the phillies acquired this offseason, Morton,Oberholtzer,Hellickson, etc who pitches the best?
Jeff Sullivan
11:25
Morton
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