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Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 2/5/16
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AKA22
9:41
Who do you think opens the season in the Braves rotation? Will they give a lot of the young guys a chance, or will we get the joy of watching Norris, Chacin, and Kendrick day in and day out?
Jeff Sullivan
9:42
The Braves *want* to see a lot of the young guys. The veterans they have would be pretty easy to displace. They've just had to assemble some measure of depth because they want to avoid what last year's pitching staff became. Don't worry too much about the opening rotation -- worry more about the rotation on, say, June 1
If a young pitcher is being frozen out of the rotation by Kyle Kendrick, it's 99% because the young pitcher hasn't yet been good enough
In which case you wouldn't want to see him
Brett W
9:43
I want to clarify my off-season narrative notes. The Zimmerman and Upton contracts were largely seen as reasonable, and the Davis contract was seen as a team mistake. But Mike Ilitch is the one who is mortgaging the team's future because he is old, but the slightly older Peter Angelos isn't. Sound right?
Jeff Sullivan
9:46
The issue with the Tigers' future is bigger than just Zimmermann and Upton. And the Orioles don't have a lot of future committed money other than Davis. The simplistic interpretation is that Ilitch has been much more free with his money than Angelos has. So now people view the Tigers through that lens.
9:47
As always, reality is less extreme than narrative. The Tigers aren't quite as screwed as people say. And the Davis contract is problematic, even if for now that money is in part coming from a separate budget
Josh
9:47
Do you think something could work out trade wise between the Dodgers and White Sox?
Jeff Sullivan
9:47
Report from yesterday is, no
The Dude of NY
9:47
Which team has a better 6 year window: the Astros or the Cubs?
Jeff Sullivan
9:47
Cubs. More resources
lunch
9:48
your illustration depicting the horror of minute maid park was deeply powerful. have you considered a second career depicting volcanoes in ms paint? it's a quickly growing field, i hear.
Jeff Sullivan
9:48
If that were a job I'd start it tomorrow
TF Fredrik
9:48
What do you think are the most useful pitch f/x metrics to look at? You give me velos, horizontal/vertical movement, & pitch usages and I feel pretty good about having an idea of a pitcher’s arsenal.
Jeff Sullivan
9:49
That definitely gives you just about everything. Beyond that, though, you want to know where the pitches usually go. And there's value in seeing how the pitches relate to one another -- like, I think it's more important to look at a changeup versus the fastball, as opposed to looking at the changeup in isolation
I might be wrong on that, though. Hard to demonstrate
Guest
9:49
How short will Montero's leash be considering their depth options, will be Montero ever put it together as a platoon guy?
Jeff Sullivan
9:50
Jesus Montero? I think the job is Lee's. Montero is out of options, so I figure he'll float elsewhere. Doubt he's ever worth more than 1 WAR, and my assumption is he's something like replacement level
Richard
9:51
Hi: Your thoughts concerning the health of Wacha & C. Martinez after last September. Thanks
Jeff Sullivan
9:52
With Wacha, I think the problem was mechanics. Maybe brought on by fatigue, but I feel pretty good about him for 2016. Martinez I feel *mostly* good about. Shoulders are just mysterious enough, though, that I'll want some early encouraging velocity readings
jtt
9:53
Why do teams keep giving mike morse money? He has been good literally one time. At least ruben sierra played in an era before sabremetrics were widespread
Jeff Sullivan
9:53
He's extremely strong, and when he wants to be he's a really good teammate. He's had some of his numbers hurt due to injury and he's still a pretty good hitter at 100%. Problem is, everything else
William
9:54
Jays over/under 93 wins (2015 total)? Some have made the case that their starting is actually a touch better than last year, even minus Price...
Jeff Sullivan
9:55
I expect them under 93 but they'd be one of the least surprising teams if they eclipsed 93. 93 is just a really high bar
Guest
9:55
Any chance Harper gets in the 40/40 club, trouts too fat and slow now
Jeff Sullivan
9:55
Harper has 37 steals in four years
(That's a no)
Mikey
9:58
Glasnow seems like he might have the best milk on the farm, even over Giolito. Do you agree? Do you see Glasnow becoming one of the top pitchers in baseball?
Jeff Sullivan
10:00
With the top three of Giolito, Urias, and Glasnow, there's not a whole lot of differentiation. You can make a strong case for any of them to be the best current pitching prospect, and it would be hard to call you wrong. I'd like to see Glasnow show a little better command against advanced competition but that applies to almost everybody
He's real good, and he's going to be a big help in this year's second half
mike
10:01
Do you think the large variance in baseball outcomes enables some teams to continue to follow poor methodologies in player evaluation, roster building, and so on, long past when they should?
Jeff Sullivan
10:03
To some extent, for sure. But there are so many decisions being made, and there are so many players, that if you make enough bad decisions, then simple math dictates that it'll become clear in time. In other words, there's not a small sample of baseball decisions. You can get lucky for a few years, but time identifies the worst. And so we've seen most of the worst replaced
Granted, the counter-argument is, were those guys the worst, or were they actually just unlucky? Like, is its results-based analysis to say that Jack Zduriencik was a bad GM? I don't think it is, myself, but I admit it's hard to prove
The Dude of NY
10:04
Is it weird that I always am happy when a player win an arbitration hearing? The odds are so stacked against them, plus their salary is already depressed.
Jeff Sullivan
10:04
Kind of weird but not embarrassingly weird. Gotta find something to get jazzed about in February
Rick
10:04
Can Adonis Garcia really be an MLB regular?
Jeff Sullivan
10:04
Not a good one
10:06
He seems a little like Jonathan Schoop with less upside
Nate
10:06
Is the price and value teams are putting on relievers completely ridiculous, or is this something that will stay put?
Jeff Sullivan
10:07
I think it'll stay put, or even increase as starters go on to throw fewer innings
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