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Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 2/5/16
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Zonk
10:51
Kershaw isn't just an ace...he's a boss! What say you?
Jeff Sullivan
10:51
He's probably the boss of his family, and the boss of his foundation, but he's not the boss of his baseball team
Phineas J Whoopee
10:53
Yellowstone super-volcano question: You hear a lot about it but has anyone calculated the actual odds of it happening in our lifetimes (say, the next 50 years)?
Jeff Sullivan
"Right now, the chances of a massive Yellowstone caldera eruption within the next century are infinitesimally small. Even if any eruption at Yellowstone were to happen, it is much more likely to be small eruption, maybe on the scale of Mount St. Helens in 1980."
BK
10:53
Your Senators couldn't handle McDavid :(
Jeff Sullivan
10:54
At this point they probably couldn't handle you or me
Zonk
10:54
Predict the NL West, top to bottom. Go!
Jeff Sullivan
10:54
Dodgers, Giants, D-Backs, nobody cares
Joel
10:54
A-Rod is #13 all time in WAR and Bonds is #2. Do you think either one of them will ever give a speech at the museum in Cooperstown?
Jeff Sullivan
10:55
I'll say yes to both eventually
tom selleck
10:55
One of the reasons for the offensive boom during the PED era that is often discussed is that pitchers were juicing too - resulting in faster pitches - equating to faster exit speed off the bat - equating to increase distance. How much weight do you put into this? Are pitchers really throwing slower?
Jeff Sullivan
10:55
Nonsense
10:56
There's no way pitchers are throwing slower now than they used to. And pitch velocity has an almost negligible effect on batted-ball distance, at least when you're talking about small margins around 85-95
Bill
10:56
Is Joe Mauer one of your favorite players ever?
Jeff Sullivan
10:57
No, but if I lived closer to where he's played, he probably would be
TF Fredrik
10:57
Do you like doing theoretical/research pieces better where you are looking at overall trends and trying to find something new? Or do you like looking at rosters and teams moves, where you are thinking about what they should have done or still should do?
Jeff Sullivan
10:57
All of it. I like interesting ideas. The hardest part of this job, by far, is finding ideas.
Paul
10:58
Hi Jeff. There's a story that the mlb could come to London in 2017. Do you think it could happen and do you think it's a good idea?
Jeff Sullivan
10:59
I definitely think it could happen but I don't think it would make much of a difference. A couple games' worth of exposure won't turn a country on to a sport, especially when the sport immediately leaves.
11:00
It would be an achievement, like when MLB has played in Japan and Australia, but MLB going to Australia isn't why Australian baseball has had some success. That's independent of the two games
Bad Hermit
11:02
If Trout is still the best franchise starter, then who is the worst?
Jeff Sullivan
11:02
Randy Choate
BK
11:02
Oakland could have gotten more if they flipped Donaldson this offseason, y/n?
Jeff Sullivan
11:02
Well yeah
Biscuit
11:02
Can Plawecki be a legitimate big league hitter this year? Think he gets to 300 AB?
Jeff Sullivan
11:03
I don't think he gets that high. d'Arnaud too good
Eric R
11:03
"30 years from now I'll still be working in MS Paint while everyone else is building holograms" -- I was very disappointed when I upgraded to Windows 10 and MSPaint was nowhere to be seen...
Jeff Sullivan
11:03
I still have it somehow!
It's possible I had to find it and install it manually and I just forgot.
Pete
11:03
As a Yankees fan, I'm obviously thrilled we're going after Harper in 2018. But Jeff Passan's suggestion of $500 million is insane. That would hamstring even the Yankees when it comes to free agents. I'm thinking $375-$400 million, with an opt-out after five years. Fair?
Jeff Sullivan
11:04
He's going to blow past $400 million
Easily
Big Joe Monferrand
11:04
Jeff, Could an offense score 1000 runs in this pitching environment?? If a team had the dream AS line up (active players of course)
Jeff Sullivan
11:05
No one has cleared 900 runs in a season since 2009
So 1,000 is unrealistic unless MLB makes some pretty significant changes
Julio Pepper
11:06
Why do you think Trout is only a "little" better than Harper? He's projected for 3 more WAR - isn't that a bit like saying that Harper is a little better than Francisco Lindor?
Jeff Sullivan
11:06
Harper was as good as Trout just last year, and I buy into Harper's emergence more than Steamer does
Anthony
11:07
Hey Jeff- Do you See Harper as a lock in 2018 to the Yankees? People are saying its inevitable seeing as how when he was younger he was on the cover of SI and his dream apparently was to put on the pinstripes. Also supposedly his father is a big yankees fan. Do you see it as a given for him to be Yankee ? What would you put the odds are at this point ?
Jeff Sullivan
11:07
Of course it's not a given. The Yankees aren't baseball's only financial powerhouse and we don't even know what Harper will be when he's a free agent. I'd say maybe 33-40% Yankees, the rest field
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