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Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 2/8/19
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Jeff Sullivan
9:08
Hello friends
Welcome to Friday baseball chat
I'm sorry about that extra long delay -- had a podcast go slightly over
Bork
9:08
Hello, friend!
Jeff Sullivan
9:08
Hello friend
Bork
9:08
In which way will Melnyk drop the ball with Duchene & Stone?
Jeff Sullivan
9:08
I very genuinely don't want to talk about it :(
Davis
9:08
The Brewers got a guy in Josh Tomlin who posted 2.2 WAR just a year ago. He also has a miniscule walk rate, the smallest among all starters.
Jeff Sullivan
9:09
Last season, Josh Tomlin allowed 3.2 homers per nine innings
3.2 homers per nine innings
3.2 homers per nine innings
3.2 HOMERS PER NINE INNINGS
9:10
If you look at his background, over 900 career innings, he has a 114 ERA- and a 101 xFIP-. Some pitchers might have a soft-contact skill. Tomlin absolutely doesn't
9:11
It's a genuine delight how well he's able to command his pitches, but the overall sum of the parts is awfully dinger-prone. Tomlin is a fringe big-leaguer, and he's 34 years old
Ron
9:11
Jeff, I'd really like to know what Kyler's going to do so please tell me.
Jeff Sullivan
9:11
He's going to make the decision that he thinks is best for him
Will it actually be what's best for him? Impossible to say! That's the funny thing about big, difficult decisions
Airport Banana
9:13
If they can only sign one, should the Brewers go for Marwin Gonzalez or Dallas Keuchel?
Jeff Sullivan
9:14
That depends entirely on what they're willing to settle for
But Gonzalez has been one of the more obvious fits from the beginning of the winter
diadem
9:14
Will Stripling and Strahm start the season in the rotation?
Jeff Sullivan
9:15
Not barring injury or trade
Ron
9:16
Did Realmuto have more trade value last offseason?
Had a huge year last, more established, track record, etc.
That vs. an extra year of club control.
Jeff Sullivan
9:17
I think he would've had very similar trade value. It's no small thing to have a third year of club control, but teams now can feel more confident about Realmuto's production. He took a meaningful step forward in 2018, that vaulted him to the top of the backstop leaderboards
I think 2018 actually helped the Marlins pry away a top-tier prospect
P
9:19
Is there an Astros equivalent to the JT trade? There doesn't feel like one
Jeff Sullivan
9:20
In terms of just sum asset value, yeah, you could get there. There could be any combination of players. But in terms of talent + volatility, boy, I don't know. Like, Stassi is a big-league catcher, but he's not another Alfaro
9:21
If you did Stassi/James/Guduan or something, that could be similar in estimated future value, but that's not at all similar in error-bar magnitude
Condesa
9:21
Doesn’t sound like it’ll happen this year, but if the DH came to the NL, which NL team would be helped / hurt the most in 2019?
Jeff Sullivan
9:22
I think it's conventional wisdom the Cubs would be helped the most because of Schwarber, but now I think it would be the Reds, because of Kemp, Winker, etc
9:24
A lot harder to figure out who would be hurt the most. Pitchers all suck at hitting. Maybe the Giants -- they don't even have an outfield yet, let alone an extra hitter
R Sauce
9:25
Who is Ozzie Albies? More 1st half 2018 or 2nd half 2018?
Jeff Sullivan
9:26
Neither! I'm going to go off the board and say I believe the current Albies is about what he was from May through July. Aggressive hitter, slightly above average
Bryce Harper
9:28
When do I start to consider taking a 1 year 45 million dollar pillow contract?
Jeff Sullivan
9:29
The end of March, by which point you will have signed for something much much bigger in reality
Harper has giant offers on the table
Kip
9:30
Heyman says the Marlins wanted Riley, Pache and a pitching prospect.  Even to keep Realmuto from going to the Phillies that seems way too high.
Jeff Sullivan
9:30
It's high, albeit not out-and-out crazy -- lots of questions still unanswered regarding Riley and Pache's bats
9:31
Pache was bad in his initial exposure to Double-A, and Riley's market value this winter hasn't been as high as you'd think
Dave in London
9:31
Thanks for chatting Jeff. What's the likelihood that the Mariners trade Encarnacion before spring training, and if they do, does that leave Vogelbach as the default DH?
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