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Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 2/8/19
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Jeff Sullivan
9:55
Personally I'd give the slight edge to Harper, and my guess is the Phillies might believe the same thing, but this is one of those open debates. Strong arguments on either side
Austin "All I Do Is" Wynns
9:55
So the Orioles catchers are now Sisco, Susac, and Sucre. Are sibilant backstops a market inefficiency they've tapped?
Jeff Sullivan
9:55
I wonder when Orioles questions are going to stop bumming me out
Xberg
9:56
Not trying to pick on Johnny O’Brien, but I couldn’t really figure out what he meant in his anti-analytics answer on EW regarding slumps. What do you think he meant by this?
Jeff Sullivan
9:56
I'd have to re-listen to be sure, but my guess is that he means analytics can identify a streak or a slump, but they can't necessarily help shine a light on how to make a slump end
9:57
I don't agree in all circumstances, but it's a valid general point
stever20
9:57
thought the union's counterproposal on the DL made a lot of sense- 10 days for batters, 15 for pitchers.   Seems to make a lot of sense.  your thoughts?
Jeff Sullivan
9:58
I can't emphasize enough how little I care, because I don't think the injured list has been abused as much as people say. But I'm also very open to the idea of treating hitters and pitchers differently, because I think down the road they'll want to do the same with compensation
Hebrew
9:59
Will Randall Grichuk live up to his Steamer projection? It's hard to forget about how bad his first half was last year.
Jeff Sullivan
9:59
Steamer thinks Grichuk will be about the same overall player. I'll take it!
Roger
9:59
Article idea: compare the aggregate FAN projections for each team's players to the aggregate ZIPS or Steamer projections for each team's players to determine which fan base is most optimistic or pessimistic about the coming year.
Jeff Sullivan
10:00
I always run a project asking the community to evaluate our team projections. Haven't done it yet because there's still more offseason to go, and because right now our projections don't yet include ZiPS
AJ
10:00
Looking at the PECOTA projections and the Depth Charts on here, do people really think Tulowitzki is gonna get the bulk of the playing time at short for the Yankees? I’d be shocked if they start the season with anything other than LeMahieu at 2B, Andujar at 3B, and Torres at SS
Jeff Sullivan
10:01
Yeah, I'm going to take another look at that. Would be an easy thing to adjust. Although it's worth noting that Steamer does like Tulowitzki so it's not like an adjustment is going to meaningfully impact the Yankees' projection
Davy
10:02
I thought the differences between your piece and Michael Baumann's on the Realmuto trade were really interesting. Did you read his?
Jeff Sullivan
10:03
I think it's not surprising that, when you have a trade with two such volatile young players involved, you're going to end up with some widely disparate opinions. Some people will be more inclined to see Alfaro and Sanchez for their strengths. Some will be more inclined to see them for their shortcomings. I lean more toward the latter, personally, but that doesn't mean I'm more right than anyone else
Stinky Bologna
10:03
RE: analytics, the next frontier. Do you foresee the new CBA incorporating mandating players wear wearable tech in order to further the analytics - both on the fan side and the player evaluation side of the game?
Jeff Sullivan
10:04
No. I don't know how you mandate that
Bebop
10:04
As a Cubs who has always been a little enamored with Evan Gattis, and with the potential addition of a 26 man roster with a 12 pitcher maximum, wouldn't Gattis be a good addition as a back up cathcer/big pinch hitting bat off the bench? it doesn't seem as if people are knocking his door down with offers
Jeff Sullivan
10:05
Gattis is definitely the kind of guy who would most support a roster-size expansion
Same with Willians Astudillo!!
You'd probably see a good number of players added who have some passing ability to defend behind the plate
@RationalMLBfan
10:06
Larger pitching staffs are intended in part to preserve pitcher heath vis-à-vis sufficient rest. But has there been research on the impact on position player health? Small benches mean that position players generally have to play through smaller aches instead of taking a few days to heal. Even positional versatility, which is a partial response to smaller benches, could be problematic, as players are put on the field in positions that don’t match their skills.
Jeff Sullivan
10:07
You're not wrong, and I don't know of any overarching studies. But I think that, generally speaking, baseball is less afraid of hamstring strains than UCL or labrum tears
Jimmy_Changa
10:07
How does Alfaro's ceiling compare to Realmuto's 2018 production? Higher? Lower?
Jeff Sullivan
10:07
How do we define his ceiling? Presumably, Alfaro's ceiling requires better discipline. How much better do we make his discipline? Does he become the next Joey Votto?
10:08
Alfaro has a very high ceiling, wherever that may be. He also has a low chance of reaching it
Hebrew
10:09
What are your thoughts on Brandon Nimmo? Projections seem all over the board on him - steamer/depth charts project a regression from last season, THE BAT and PECOTA are looking at a similar season from him, and ATC thinks he's going to crush. Wondering if last year's power was a fluke!
Jeff Sullivan
10:10
At least in terms of expected wOBA last season, Nimmo definitely overachieved. At the same time, he was better down the stretch than he was early on, so I'm a Nimmo fan. Did you see that September? 29 walks and 18 strikeouts
10:11
While I don't think Nimmo's going to become a classic slugger, he's a 4-win player in my mind, with upside beyond that
Petyr Baelish
10:11
Donaldson is 33 years old.
o/u 33 days spent on the DL in 2019?
Jeff Sullivan
10:11
Taking the slight over
Baloo
10:12
Going to Pompeii in May, have you been?  Any tips?
Jeff Sullivan
10:12
Haven't been for a while, but have been twice. Very memorable! See about taking a trip to Vesuvius proper while you're in the area. Helpful to connect the two
10:13
So much volcanic activity in that part of Italy. From a long-term perspective, Naples is in trouble
Oklahomabrave
10:13
I really thought the Braves would end up with Realmuto as the “big trade” ‘this offseason. Do you see them making any move of significance before OD?
Jeff Sullivan
10:14
Less and less likely. I'll say the Donaldson addition was pretty significant, already. They seem like the kind of team that'll play out the first three months and then reevaluate at the deadline. Needs will emerge, and so will young players within the system
Fartrell Cluggins
10:14
Will the Realmuto help hurry the process of the Phillies signing Bryce Harper at all?
Jeff Sullivan
10:14
Not in any real way, but resolution can't be far off regardless
Dealioni
10:15
You buying Kris Bryant 35+ HR this year?
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