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Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 3/16/18
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Jeff Sullivan
9:05
Hello friends
Welcome to Friday baseball chat
Mike
9:05
Hello Jeff, have you contemplated mortality today?
Jeff Sullivan
9:06
Yes
The Man With No Name
9:06
Still on the Wilmer Font hype train?  What about Scott Alexander?
Jeff Sullivan
9:07
Yeah, I still like Font. Not going to abandon that hope because of a bad day on March 6
Bort
9:08
Have you seen Carter Capps's new pitching motion? It's, um, interesting.
Jeff Sullivan
9:08
Look, I've never understood how Capps could pitch like how he's pitched. I *definitely* don't understand how he can pitch like how he pitches
9:09
If he can make it work, more power to him, but something doesn't seem to add up
Bill Drobick
9:09
I have a couple of questions about drafting Catchers.
Jeff Sullivan
9:09
If this is about fantasy baseball, I don't think I've addressed this in a while -- I don't answer fantasy questions because I can't answer fantasy questions because I don't play fantasy baseball
Rays fan
9:09
I know we’re not supposed to put any stock into spring training, but is there a point where someone can look bad enough in it to concern you? Like what if batters are 12-for-23 against someone, and of the 30 total batters he’s faced over his three starts so far, he’s walked five of them and struck out none, and his ERA is almost 17? Is that a bad enough performance in spring training to concern you at all? Asking for a friend whose name rhymes with Fake Jaria
Jeff Sullivan
9:10
Yes, that is legitimately worrisome
Spring training isn't completely irrelevant. Extreme performances at either end should have an effect on season expectations
9:11
Now, I think, if Faria comes out next time and looks sharp, then that's that. My stance is that spring concerns can be quickly alleviated. These games, after all, *are* practice. But I saw Faria's numbers just yesterday and I don't like it one bit
It's hard to be that bad under any circumstances without something being off
RedsFan
9:11
Thoughts on Suarez extension and what it means for the Reds organization as a whole?
Jeff Sullivan
9:12
I think I'm going to write about this after I chat
I'm surprised by the length, and by the modest terms in the free-agent years. I get that Suarez isn't a superstar, and he could be in line for regression, but this feels like at least a partial response to Suarez and his agent not wanting to deal with free agency, after what we've just seen
9:13
Suarez was due to become an FA after 2020, and that would still be covered by the current CBA
Say hello to Nick Senzel, middle infielder
TF Fredrik
9:14
I feel like there is a development paradox nowadays with how pitchers are protected coming thru the system. On one hand you know pitching is an unnatural phenomenon and every pitch seems to wear on muscles & ligaments. Hence you think you need to protect that elbow, shoulder etc. On the other hand, the best way for players to learn is to practice, push themselves, struggle, and experience pitching in games against real live teams. Where do you think best mix is on protecting pitchers and letting them learn by pitching?
Jeff Sullivan
9:14
I don't think even teams have a good answer to this
9:15
Beyond, like, avoiding obvious abuse. Teams seem to have agreed upon a general idea of gradually scaling up innings season after season
Ultimately, you have to pitch in order to learn how to pitch. And I think what we're seeing, and what we're going to see, is teams promoting young pitchers more aggressively when they seem like they can help, because the younger a pitcher is when he reaches the majors, the fewer miles are already on his arm/shoulder
9:17
Before, you might not have seen as many pitchers reach the majors while somewhat unpolished. But now those final stages of learning can take place in the bigs
Stevie Knicks
9:17
Ian Happ is having a pretty fantastic spring training.  If he keeps this up and locks down the leadoff spot can he exceed the ZIPS projections?
Jeff Sullivan
9:17
ZiPS projects a 107 wRC+. Happ as a rookie posted a 113 wRC+. He could absolutely beat his projection
TF Fredrik
9:18
Is controlling a pitchers effort something that can be taught? Is it something that teams already do? You and Ben were going over this with Syndergaard. If he could just live at 96-98 would that make a difference for his health? Or we just don’t know?
Jeff Sullivan
9:20
Intuitively it feels like it would be good for him, because pitchers can stay healthier if they back off their max velocity. Eno has written about guys who pitch close to the max, and who don't. I think this is one of those things that comes with experience. You rarely hear about a rookie who knows how to mix up speeds. It's one of the last things to develop
2-D
9:20
When a pitcher expresses a desire to pitch to contact more does that translate to "only with two outs, nobody on, and the bottom of the order up"?
Jeff Sullivan
9:20
When pitchers talk about pitching to contact, what they mean is throwing more strikes, and wasting fewer pitches in the dirt
Jack
9:22
Less than two weeks from Opening Day and almost a week after Lynn and Arrieta finally signed, and Cobb still doesn’t have a job. At this point do you think the Rays should see if they can get Cobb to follow in the footsteps of Moustakas and re-sign with them on a one-year deal for much less money than the qualifying offer he rejected? Given what Lynn signed for, I’m not even sure if he’ll be able to get better than that from anyone. Tampa made it pretty clear they weren’t going to be in the market to bring him back because they felt good about their pitching depth and weren’t willing to compete with the kind of offers they thought would be out there for him, but now they’ve lost Odorizzi, Honeywell and De Leon, they say they’re gonna try having a four-man rotation, and it just doesn’t seem like a market has developed for Cobb. He might be in better shape if he can put together another healthy year and then re-enter the market without a QO next year
Jeff Sullivan
9:23
Very little of me believes the Rays would be willing to give Cobb like $10 million over one year. Not because of the front office, but because of ownership. The whole idea has been to somewhat slash payroll. So even though I think the Rays *could* use Cobb, now that they're down two starters, I don't see it happening
9:24
It's also unclear whether Cobb would even want to return. Not that he's in position to deny anyone or anything
I wonder if the A's might be a possibility to get him soon. They should still have some space after signing Lucroy, and it looks like they could be down Jharel Cotton for a long time
9:25
The projected opening-day payroll of $64.6 million is down from last year's $81.7 million
9:27
The A's still receive revenue sharing, so they'd have to sacrifice their third-highest draft pick. That's not worth nothing, but that shouldn't be a deal-breaker
S
9:29
Which free agent who signed a one year deal will increase their value the most for next offseason?
Jeff Sullivan
9:29
Might be Lance Lynn, depending. The fun answer would be Tim Lincecum
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